Market Liquidity and Trading Activity

Previous studies of liquidity span short time periods and focus on the individual security. In contrast, we study aggregate market spreads, depths, and trading activity for U.S. equities over an extended time sample. Daily changes in market averages of liquidity and trading activity are highly volatile and negatively serially dependent. Liquidity plummets significantly in down markets. Recent market volatility induces a decrease in trading activity and spreads. There are strong day-of-the-week effects; Fridays accompany a significant decrease in trading activity and liquidity, while Tuesdays display the opposite pattern. Long- and short-term interest rates influence liquidity. Depth and trading activity increase just prior to major macroeconomic announcements.     

Risk aversion, liquidity, and endogenous short horizons

We analyze a competitive model in which different informationsignals get reflected in value at different points in time.If investors are sufficiently risk averse, we obtain an equilibriumin which all investors focus exclusively on the short term.In addition, we show that increasing the variance of informationlesstrading increases market depth but causes a greater proportionof investors to focus on the short-term signal, which decreasesthe informativeness of prices about the long run. Finally, wealso explore parameter spaces under which long-term informedagents wish to voluntarily disclose their information.     

Glück — Die Sicht der Ökonomie

Glück führte lange Zeit ein Schattendasein in der ?konomischen Forschung. Das hat sich seit einigen Jahren ge?ndert. Aus den neuen Erkenntnissen zu den wirtschaftlichen und au?erwirtschaftlichen Bestimmungsgründen des Glücks werden auch Empfehlungen für eine Wirtschaftspolitik abgeleitet, die das pers?nliche und gesellschaftliche Glück der Menschen berücksichtigt. Bruno S. Frey und Claudia Frey Marti fassen in diesem Beitrag ihr Buch¹ zu dem Thema zusammen.     

Stock exchange governance initiatives: Evidence from the Italian STARs

Can a stock exchange improve corporate governance and transparency by designating companies that exhibit superior corporate governance? In 2000, the Borsa Italiana created a mid-cap segment with strong listing standards, which is composed of firms (called STARS) that follow stricter standards of transparency, disclosure, monitoring and liquidity. We find that STAR firms exhibit governance characteristics not observed in non-STAR firms, such as a higher incidence of audit and executive committees and higher debt ratios. They experienced a modestly favorable share price response upon the implementation of the STAR initiative. Moreover, they experienced significantly higher buy and hold returns and transparency after the initiative. Several governance characteristics are cross-sectionally associated with performance following the STAR initiative. Overall, the results suggest that firms may be willing to improve governance when they are endorsed by a credible agency for doing so, and such improvements may lead to better performance. The STAR initiative may serve as a model that can be adapted by other stock exchanges to promote transparency and governance.     

Liquidity, Return and Order-Flow Linkages Between REITs and the Stock Market

This article represents the first exploration of liquidity and order flow spillovers across New York Stock Exchange stocks and real estate investment trusts (REITs). Impulse response functions and Granger causality tests indicate the existence of persistent liquidity spillovers running from REITs to non-REITs. Specifically, REIT liquidity indicators are forecastable from non-REIT ones, at both daily and monthly horizons. I also provide evidence of a liquidity premium inherent in REIT returns. While REIT prices appear to be set efficiently in that neither REIT nor non-REIT order flows forecast REIT returns, I find that order flows and returns in the stock market negatively forecast REIT order flows. This result is consistent with the notion that real estate markets are viewed as substitute investments for the stock market, which causes down-moves in the stock market to increase money flows to the REIT market.     

The Cross‐Section of Expected Stock Returns: What Have We Learnt from the Past Twenty‐Five Years of Research?

I review the recent literature on cross-sectional predictors of stock returns. Predictive variables used emanate from informal arguments, alternative tests of risk-return models, behavioural biases, and frictions. More than fifty variables have been used to predict returns. The overall picture, however, remains murky, because more needs to be done to consider the correlational structure amongst the variables, use a comprehensive set of controls, and discern whether the results survive simple variations in methodology .     

Have capital market anomalies attenuated in the recent era of high liquidity and trading activity?

We examine whether the recent regime of increased liquidity and trading activity is associated with attenuation of prominent equity return anomalies due to increased arbitrage. We find that the majority of the anomalies have attenuated and the average returns from a portfolio strategy based on prominent anomalies have approximately halved after decimalization. We provide evidence that hedge fund assets under management, short interest and aggregate share turnover have led to the decline in anomaly-based trading strategy profits in recent years. Overall, our work indicates that policies to stimulate liquidity and ameliorate trading costs improve capital market efficiency.     

Feedback and the success of irrational investors

We provide a model in which irrational investors trade based upon considerations that have no inherent connection to fundamentals. However, trading activity affects market prices, and because of feedback from security prices to cash flows, the irrational trades influence underlying cash flows. As a result, irrational investors can, in some situations, earn abnormal (i.e., risk-adjusted) profits that can exceed the abnormal profits of rational informed investors. Although the trading of irrational investors cause prices to deviate from fundamental values, stock prices follow a random walk.     

Long-term reversals in the corporate bond market

Long-term reversals in corporate bonds are economically and statistically significant in a comprehensive sample spanning the period 1977 to 2017. Such reversals are stronger for bonds with high credit risk and more binding regulatory, capital, and funding liquidity constraints. Bond long-term reversal is not a manifestation of the equity counterpart and is mainly driven by long-term losers. A long-term reversal factor carries a sizable premium and is not explained by long-established equity and bond market factors. Thus, past returns capture investors’ ex-ante risk assessment and the degree of institutional constraints they face, so losing bonds command higher expected returns.