Moral Hazard,portfolio allocation,and asset returns for thrift institutions

This article examines the earnings performance of nontraditional assets allowed to thrifts since the early 1980s. It uses the statistical cost accounting methodology developed by Hester and Zoellner to estimate average returns on thrift portfolio investments for the years ending June 30, 1987 and June 30, 1988. Results show that average returns on land loans, service corporation investment, real estate investment, and commercial loans were significantly lower than returns on more traditional assets. The results are far more pronounced at capital deficient institutions, lending support to the hypothesis that they used nontraditional investments as a means of exploiting the deposit insurance system. Returns on nontraditional assets are significantly affected by geographic factors, even for well capitalized institutions. The article concludes with an evaluation of the reimposition of portfolio restrictions on thrifts by the Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery, and Enforcement Act of 1989.The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views or opinions of the Federal Housing Finance Board, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, or the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. George Benston, Tom Fomby, Allen Berger, John Wolken, and anonymous referees made numerous constructive suggestions.     

Force and Influence in Content Analysis: The Production of New Social Knowledge

We examine the two traditions of content analysis: the first in which one substitutes words of a text with categories, and the second in which one looks for clusters of words that may refer to a theme. In the first tradition, preexisting dictionary categories give meaning to the words; in the second, meaning comes after the fact. Preexisting dictionary categories (the substitution model) are calibrated instruments applied within experimental designs that leave no space for doubt; meanwhile, the ability of the correlational model to conjure up complex themes from fragments of a text yields no unique solution. These differences have bearings on the production of new social knowledge. We expound on the epistemological foundations of the two traditions of interpretation and draw from them decision rules upon which one may rely for choosing among appropriate content-analytic tactics. Two reasons make this essay timely and critical: (1) the increasing variety of new content-analyticsoftware for particular purposes and (2) the almost exclusive focusing on software and technology at the expense of adjusting the choice of the software to the nature of the text. Two studies, one in historiometry, the other in autobiography, illustrate the liabilities and benefits of the two models of content analysis.     

Network effects and the dynamics of migration and inequality: Theory and evidence from Mexico

International migration is costly and initially only the middle class of the wealth distribution may have both the means and incentives to migrate, which can increase inequality in the sending community. However, the migration networks formed lower the costs for future migrants, which can in turn lower inequality. This paper shows both theoretically and empirically that wealth has a nonlinear effect on migration, and then examines the empirical evidence for an inverse U-shaped relationship between emigration and inequality in rural sending communities in Mexico. After instrumenting, we find that the overall impact of migration is to reduce inequality across communities with relatively high levels of past migration. We also find some suggestive evidence for an inverse U-shaped relationship among communities with a wider range of migration experiences.     

Author Index Volume 37 (2003)

Quality &; Quantity -     

PRIVATIZATION AND PERFORMANCE: THE CASE OF FOUR AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

ABSTRACT: This paper investigates the performance after privatization of institutions in Australian banking and insurance. Privatization was anticipated to improve firm performance in Australia and elsewhere, yet findings are mixed. A comparative institutional approach is taken to analyzing firm performance in the longer term which allows for further structural change. A CAMEL analysis of performance before and after privatization events is undertaken for four privatized institutions, two each from banking and insurance sectors. These are matched with private peer institutions. Privatized institutions are found to perform quite similarly to private peer institutions both before and after privatization.     

The performance of event study approaches using daily commodity futures returns

Simulations are conducted to assess the inferential accuracy of statistical event study approaches using daily futures returns. Methods examined include constant mean return models and several regression models—OLS, GARCH(1,1), and a GARCH(1,1) model having an error term with a Student's t distribution. The simulations address four of the most commonly analyzed agricultural futures commodities—corn, soybeans, live cattle, and hogs. In terms of the size of the test statistics, constant mean return models with short normal periods perform poorly, leading to unacceptably high rejection rates of the null hypothesis. Test statistics from constant mean return models with longer normal periods, OLS, and GARCH specifications provide rejection rates largely consistent with those of a unit normal distribution. Test statistics from all models are powerful enough to detect abnormal performance levels below those that would trigger limit locks. At small levels of abnormal performance the GARCH(1,1) model with a t distribution was consistently the most powerful model. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:533–555, 2004     

The Male-Female Pay Gap Driven by Coupling between Labor Markets and Mating Markets

Synopsis Males often get paid more than females for the same work. This male-female pay gap has been observed throughout the world over many years. The most commonly cited explanations focus on gender oppression and workplace discrimination. We agree that discrimination contributes significantly to the pay gap; however, other factors may play important roles in how the sexes compete in the labor market. We use observations from psychology and concepts from biology to show how aspects of mate choice may influence labor markets. With a mathematical model, we analyze how mating preferences for partner wages affect the differences in wages between males and females, and in turn how wage differences affect mating preferences. If some extrinsic force, such as discrimination, creates an initial bias in wages, then coupled feedback between mating preferences and wages creates and maintains excess mating preference and wage biases. This model demonstrates how coupling between labor markets and mating markets can lead to outcomes that do not occur when analyzing either market in isolation from the other.     

A Comparison of Measures of Earnings Per Share

Abstract

This paper explores alternative methods for computing earnings per share (EPS) for a company whose capital structure consists of ordinary shares and warrants. The methods for computing EPS identified by the FASB (1996) are critically evaluated and an alternative measure, the holding period approach,is developed within the framework of contingent claims analysis. Two types of errors are shown to characterize the accounting measures of EPS. One arises from failure of accounting measures to fully recognize the contingent nature of the warrant. The other arises from the practice of not recognizing instances of anti-dilution. A further factor is the treatment of any difference between the proceeds from the issue of the warrants and their fair value at that time. This is ignored in existing measures and yet may have a significant effect on the value of the claims of ordinary shareholders on the company’s earnings. Using a simulation method it is shown that the imputed earnings method of computing EPS is a very close approximation to the holding period method and is considerably more accurate than treasury stock measures favoured by accounting standards bodies.     

Limited liability and bank safety net procedures ∗

A model is presented of bank behaviour which identifies the factors determining a bank's optimal capital/asset ratio, its optimal liquidity ratio, the expected value of non-performing loans and the probability of bank failure. We propose that this last variable can act as an index of bank credit-worthiness. The main factors determining this index are (i) the risk associated with bank asset returns, (ii) the variability of bank deposits, (iii) the costs associated with bank failure and (iv) the implicit or explicit government subsidy involved in depositor protection schemes. The principal general conclusion of the paper is that regulations governing capital requirements, liquidity requirements and depositor protection should be (a) risk related and (b) integrated. Depositor protection can be improved through relatively high capital requirements. However, the optimal strategy is for all bank safety net procedures and incentive mechanisms to be related to the riskiness of individual bank portfolios.