Model uncertainty and asset return predictability: an application of Bayesian model averaging

We investigate model uncertainty associated with predictive regressions employed in asset return forecasting research. We use simple combination and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) techniques to compare the performance of these forecasting approaches in short-vs. long-run horizons of S&P500 monthly excess returns. Simple averaging involves an equally-weighted averaging of the forecasts from alternative combinations of factors used in the predictive regressions, whereas BMA involves computing the predictive probability that each model is the true model and uses these predictive probabilities as weights in combing the forecasts from different models. From a given set of multiple factors, we evaluate all possible pricing models to the extent, which they describe the data as dictated by the posterior model probabilities. We find that, while simple averaging compares quite favorably to forecasts derived from a random walk model with drift (using a 10-year out-of-sample iterative period), BMA outperforms simple averaging in longer compared to shorter forecast horizons. Moreover, we find further evidence of the latter when the predictive Bayesian model includes shorter, rather than longer lags of the predictive factors. An interesting outcome of this study tends to illustrate the power of BMA in suppressing model uncertainty through model as well as parameter shrinkage, especially when applied to longer predictive horizons.     

Some Notes on Alfred Schütz and the Austrian School of Economics: Review of Alfred Schütz's Collected Papers,Vol. IV. Edited by H. Wagner,G. Psathas and F. Kersten (1996)

The Review of Austrian Economics -     

Family characteristics and convenience food expenditure in urban Korea

This study uses a sample of 39 025 urban families from the 1996 Korean Family Income and Expenditures Survey to examine the relationship between family characteristics and expenditure on convenience foods. Results indicate that age and education of the family's head, number of children, presence of children under the age of six, the wife's labour force participation, and area of residence were significant in predicting the level of expenditure on convenience foods. The present study points to and gives a rationale to differences in some of the effects as compared with those found in Western countries.     

Exploring resistance in collaborative forms of governance: Meaning negotiations and counter-narratives in a case from the Danish education sector

This paper addresses resistance in studies about collaborative forms of governance. Although the literature discusses collaborative challenges, issues related to resistance are largely unexplored and mostly regarded as destructive. However, we argue for understanding resistance more dynamically – as a co-constructive aspect of collaboration. Drawing on extant resistance studies, we combine concepts of meaning negotiation and counter-narrative to examine power-resistance relations in a case study of collaborative forms of governance in the Danish education sector. The findings elucidate how resistance complicates, yet also co-constructs collaboration in governance processes; discursive struggles over meanings of collaboration and a quality model invoke power-resistance relations that destabilize a dominant narrative and enable counter-narratives, which influence future collaborative processes. Hence, we suggest understanding resistance as a constitutive feature in collaborative forms of governance, rather than a destructive obstacle. This contributes with empirical and theoretical insights into the complex role of resistance in collaboration and governance processes.     

Typicality and Novelty: Schütz and Shackle on the Paradox of Choice

This paper discusses the thoughts of the Austrian/American phenomenologist Alfred Schütz (1899–1959) and the British economist George Shackle (1903–1992) and their views on choice, which are in many ways very different, perhaps even inconsistent, but also complementary and may even have some shared elements. This is in particular so with regard to the problem of the paradox of choice, the overall insight that for choice to be informative, it must neither be predetermined nor random. Shackle has mainly focused on the creative aspect—on how choice originates while Schütz has tended to focus more on how people are able to make non-random choices by referring to the typical features of action. The paper argues that there are many differences Schütz and Shackle. The possibility that they are complementary approaches is indicated.     

杭州宠物服务业市场调研报告及深度分析

一、我国宠物市场背景分析(一)未来5年中国宠物经济的市场潜力至少能达到150亿元随着养宠物的人不断增多,宠物经济也越来越受到人们的关注。据不完全统计,我国以纯种狗和猫为主的宠物市场,年消费增长的速度在20%以上,目前,与宠物有关的产业,可以分为“宠物赚钱”和“赚宠物钱”     

Who's Afraid of Irrationality? A Review of Herbert A. Simon's ‘An Empirically Based Microeconomics’

The Review of Austrian Economics -     

Examining Group Facilitation In Situ: The Use of Formulations in Facilitation Practice

In this paper we examine how the talk of the facilitator shapes group workshop interactions by using the conversational object ‘formulation’. The data consist of video recordings of a corpus of four facilitated workshops held with management and development teams. By adopting an exploratory video-based investigation using conversational analysis to examine our data, we highlight the significance of three distinct set of formulations used by facilitators in workshops. Specifically, our findings show how formulations that encourage reflection or facilitate action, together with those collaboratively produced, enable sense making and the achievement of a temporal conversational order among participants. This research contributes to the study of facilitated workshops by offering a more nuanced approach to the understanding of the craftsmanship of doing facilitation, its effects on the workshop process and, ultimately, workshop outcomes.