Persistent misalignments of the European exchange rates: some evidence from non-linear cointegration

The asymmetric and persistent adjustment of the European real exchange rates is investigated using the framework of non-linear cointegration. The episodes of slow mean-reversion dynamics over the period from 1979 to 1999 are explained. A test of unit root against STAR cointegration is proposed and some complete estimations and stochastic simulations of ESTAR models are presented. The presence of effective non-linear adjustment during the moving of the currencies to their long-run fundamental equilibrium exchange rate value is discussed.     

ROBUST ESTIMATIONS OF EQUILIBRIUM EXCHANGE RATES WITHIN THE G20: A PANEL BEER APPROACH

This paper is concerned with the robustness of equilibrium exchange rate estimations based on the BEER approach for a set of both industrial and emerging countries. The robustness is studied in four directions, successively. First, we investigate the impact of using alternative proxies for relative productivity. Second, we analyze the impact of estimating the equilibrium equation on one single panel covering G20 countries, or separately for G7 and non-G7 countries. Third, we measure the influence of the choice of the numeraire on the derivation of bilateral equilibrium rates. Finally, we study the temporal robustness of the estimations by dropping one or 2 years from the estimation period. Our main conclusion is that BEER estimations are quite robust to these successive tests, although at one point of time misalignments can differ by several percentage points depending on the methodology. The choice of the productivity proxy is the most sensible one, followed by the country sample. In contrast, the choice of the numeraire and the time sample have a relatively limited impact on estimated misalignments.     

Persistence of Current‐account Disequilibria and Real Exchange‐rate Misalignments

This paper aims at studying whether the persistence of the gap between the observed current‐account position and its equilibrium value nonlinearly depends on real exchange‐rate misalignments. Estimating a panel smooth transition regression model on a sample of 22 industrialized countries, we find evidence for this hypothesis, showing that persistence of current‐account imbalances strongly depends on the deviation of the real exchange rate from its long‐term equilibrium. More specifically, while there is no persistence in cases of currency undervaluation or weak overvaluation, persistence tends to augment for overvaluations higher than 11%. In addition, whereas disequilibria are persistent even for very low overvaluations in the euro area, persistence is observed only for overvaluations higher than 14% for non‐eurozone members.     

On the Complementarity of Equilibrium Exchange‐Rate Approaches

Based on a simple, stock–flow adjustment framework, we show that existing concepts of equilibrium exchange rates can be viewed as realizations of the same model at different time horizons. We then compare fundamental and behavioral estimations of equilibrium exchange rates based on the same, econometric modeling of the net foreign asset position in the long run, for a panel of 15 countries over the 1980–2005 period. These estimations suggest that, although more robust to alternative assumptions, the BEER approach may rely on excessive confidence on past behaviors in terms of portfolio choices. Symmetrically, FEERs may underestimate the plasticity of international capital markets because they focus on the adjustment of the trade balance.     

The trade-growth nexus in the developing countries: a quantile regression approach

This paper applies quantile regression techniques to investigate how the impact of trade openness on the growth rate of per capita income varies with the conditional distribution of growth. Using formal robustness analyses, we first identify robust variables affecting economic growth (investment, government balance, terms of trade, inflation, and population growth) which we then use as controls in the quantile regression estimations. Our findings suggest a heterogeneous trade-growth nexus: for both the short and the long run, the effect of openness on growth is higher in countries with low growth rates compared to those with high growth rates.     

The effects of the subprime crisis on the Latin American financial markets: An empirical assessment

The aim of this article is to answer the following question: can the considerable rise in the volatility of the LAC stock markets in the aftermath of the 2007/2008 crisis be explained by the worsening financial environment in the US markets? To this end, we rely on a time-varying transition probability Markov-switching model, in which “crisis” and “non-crisis” periods are identified endogenously. Using daily data from January 2004 to April 2009, our findings do not validate the “financial decoupling” hypothesis since we show that the financial stress in the US markets is transmitted to the LAC's stock market volatility, especially in Mexico.     

IS ASIA RESPONSIBLE FOR EXCHANGE RATE MISALIGNMENTS WITHIN THE G20?

Abstract.   We use a panel data methodology to derive a consistent set of both real effective and bilateral exchange rate misalignments for the G20 currencies. As far as Asia is concerned, two conclusions can be drawn. First, according to our estimations, the five Asian countries in the sample had strongly undervalued currencies at the beginning of 2006. Second, a lack of exchange rate adjustment in Asia has limited impact on other misalignments against the US dollar. Indeed, bilateral misalignments between the USA and any other country mainly depend on real effective misalignments of both countries.     

Does backward participation in global value chains affect countries’ current account position?

Review of World Economics - This paper addresses the impact of countries’ backward participation in global value chains (GVCs) on their current account balances. Our results, based on a large...     

Managing Impressions in the Face of Rising Stakeholder Pressures: Examining Oil Companies’ Shifting Stances in the Climate Change Debate

In this paper, we examine how organizations’ impression management (IM) evolves in response to rising stakeholder pressures regarding organizations’ corporate responsibility initiatives. We conducted a comparative case study analysis over a period of 13 years (1997–2009) for two organizations—Exxon and BP—that took extreme (but different) initial stances on climate change. We found that as stakeholder pressures rose, their IM tactics unfolded in four phases: (i) advocating the initial stance, (ii) sensegiving to clarify the initial stance, (iii) image repairing, and (iv) adjusting the stance. Taken together, our analysis of IM over these four phases provides three key insights about the evolution of IM in the face of rising pressures. First, when faced with stakeholder pressures, it seems that organizations do not immediately resort to conforming but tend to give in gradually when pressures increase and start to come from relatively powerful stakeholders. Second, evolution of IM seems to be characterized by path dependence, i.e., even as organizations’ positions evolve, they continue to show their conviction in their initial positions and try to convey that their subsequent positions flow logically from the previous ones. Finally, IM involves navigation between symbolism and substance, and companies tend to strive toward harmonizing their symbolic and substantive actions as stakeholder pressure increases.     

The dollar in the turmoil

We study the impact of the global financial crisis on the equilibrium exchange rate of the US dollar. We first simulate the impact of the crisis on the US net foreign asset position. Then, we calculate the equilibrium value of the dollar according both to a BEER and to a FEER approach. We find the case for a strong, although temporary, depreciation of the dollar even more acute than before the crisis. This suggests that the strength of the dollar in late 2008 and early 2009 may be short-lived.