The role of household and business credit in banking crises

Private credit expansions are an important predictor of subsequent banking crises. We revisit that result with a new dataset from developed and developing countries that decomposes private credit into household credit and enterprise credit. We argue that household credit growth raises debt levels without much effect on long-term income. Rapid household credit expansions generate vulnerabilities that can precipitate a banking crisis. Enterprise credit expansions can have the same effects but it is tempered by the associated increase in income. Our estimates show that household credit expansions have been a statistically and economically significant predictor of banking crises. Enterprise credit expansions are also associated with banking crises but their effect is weaker and less robust.     

Economics at DG Competition 2006–2007

This paper discusses a number of significant developments in the enforcement activities of the Directorate General for Competition at the European Commission, during 2006–2007. It covers a selection of investigations as well as policy initiatives that have triggered a debate in terms of the underlying economics.     

On the Scope of Conflict in International Merger Control

In this paper, we analyze the scope for conflict between national merger control agencies which simultaneously assert jurisdictions. We consider a positive model of merger control in which market definition and the analysis of dominance are both explicitly specified. Our main finding is that conflict in international merger control is less likely to occur when economic integration is high. Hence, economic integration should alleviate rather than exacerbate conflict. In addition, we observe that conflict is more likely to arise between countries of similar market size and for moderate competition policy rules.     

Is the proposed East African Monetary Union an optimal currency area? a structural vector autoregression analysis

This paper empirically assesses the suitability of the East African (EA) countries for a regional monetary union by testing for symmetry of the underlying structural shocks. The results indicate that supply and demand shocks are generally asymmetric, which does not lend strong support for forming a currency union in the EA region at the moment. However, the speed and magnitude of adjustment to shocks is similar across the countries. Therefore, further integration of the economies might lead to more favorable conditions for a monetary union. Although evidence in favor of linking an EA currency to an external anchor is weak, such support seems to favor the Euro.     

Antitrust Update: DG Competition 2007–2008

This article discusses some significant developments in the enforcement activities of the Directorate General for Competition at the European Commission, during 2007–2008, focusing on two main themes: non-horizontal mergers and two-sided markets.     

The Devil you Know: Pegs vs Floats with Uncertain Outcomes

Theory predicts that a fixed exchange rate regime will be abandoned after a sizable economic shock as currency devaluation could stimulate exports and output. However, devaluation is risky as the new level of the exchange rate and the rate of inflation cannot be predicted. We show that this uncertainty creates resistance to devaluation. Policymakers prefer to maintain the fixed exchange rate and to undergo internal adjustment. We illustrate the point theoretically and provide supporting evidence from Bulgaria's currency board.     

Fixed exchange rate credibility with heterogeneous expectations

After disinflation has been achieved, agents who form more sophisticated forecasts have lower confidence in the sustainability of a peg compared to less sophisticated agents. Furthermore, sustained financial stability leads to a declining proportion of sophisticated agents. Thus, the credibility of a fixed exchange rate regime grows over time partly because fewer people pay attention to the workings of the monetary regime. These results are derived in a rules-versus-discretion model of a fixed exchange rate regime with heterogeneous agents. We provide unique supporting evidence using data on expectations and information about the monetary regime from Bulgaria’s currency board.     

Western Rules for Eastern Banking

The article outlines the most significant changes in the banking sector and traces its possible future path in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in the context of competing banking models. The main conclusion is that despite the transition the orientation of the banking sector will be towards the government sector (including the central bank). The new network of financial interrelations that emerged during transition is characterised by the banking sector's significant net defensive position and creditor passivity. Although CEE countries are developing their financial systems in line with a universal banking model the aggregate balance sheets of their banking sectors reveal a structure that is more in line with other proposed models. Financial relations between households, the corporate sector and the state sector intermediated by the banking sector reveal a severe retreat of banks from the corporate sector in favour of maintenance of government and central bank operations.     

Ex Post Evaluation of Enforcement: A Principal-Agent Perspective

Summary  This paper discusses a number of methodological challenges that ex post evaluation of competition policy faces. We argue that imprecise measurement and simplified analysis not only lead to unreliable results, but also trigger behavioural responses by competition authorities. Because evaluation works as an incentive scheme, it has an immediate impact on the way agencies operate. Faced with simplistic assessment, authorities may be tempted to be overly interventionist, to spend too many resources and to ignore relevant information. Therefore, a careful design of methodologies is important to ensure that ex post control does not bring about the very ills it is supposed to cure. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of DG Competition or the European Commission.     

Tax Structures and FDI: The Deterrent Effects of Complexity and Uncertainty

This paper measures the distortionary and distributional effects of housing subsidies in the Netherlands. Its broad scope allows us to discuss the results in the light of the main justifications for subsidising housing, i.e. the merit–good argument, external effects and the distribution motive. Our measurements reveal some patterns of subsidisation that seem difficult to justify on these grounds. This applies especially to the differences between subsidisation of rental and owneroccupied housing and between mortgage– and equity–financed ownership. Moreover, the inelastic supply of housing in the Netherlands entails that subsidisation has only a limited effect on promoting housing quality.