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1.
Extant work on costs of financial instability focuses on fiscal costs and declines in aggregate GDP following banking crises. We estimate effects of banking and currency crises on consumption in 19 OECD countries, showing consumption plays an important role in the adjustment following a crisis, and effects are not captured solely by the impact of crises on standard consumption determinants, income and wealth. Additional effects, attributable to factors such as time-varying confidence, uncertainty and credit rationing, are aggravated by high and rising leverage, despite financial liberalisation easing liquidity constraints. High leverage implies that banking crises taking place now could have greater incidence than in the past. 相似文献
2.
Olga Shvetsova 《Constitutional Political Economy》2005,16(2):125-141
William Riker ((1964) Federalism: Origin, Operation, Significance. Boston: Little Brown) stressed the problem of the contested nature of federal institutions and argued that federations existed
amidst the ongoing challenge to their rules, that federal institutions were being continuously endogenously produced in the
interaction of political parties rather than serving as self-enforceable constraints on the political process. As parties
changed, so did federalism, and eventually the balance was bound to shift to either one or the other extreme as far as the
degree of centralization was concerned. An alternative approach to essentially the same problem of federal instability was
to conceptualize the underlying game differently, as a game of coordination, so that institutions would be accepted as constraints
and would therefore be self-enforceable because they allow the players to avoid the chaos and successfully converge to an
outcome with payoffs exceeding their reservation values (Hardin, 1989, Ordeshook, 1992). The third proposed solution, consociationalism,
emphasizes the elite effort to overcome the conflictual nature of the institutional choice (Lijphart, 1977). Here, as in the
coordination argument, the hope is that one could create incentives for politicians to view the existing rules as advantageous
and to avoid redistribution by means of the institutional revision. Yet, just like the coordination argument, it is based
on an implicit assumption that politicians are more easily motivated to act “cooperatively” than are their constituencies.
The missing step in the literature is the mechanism by which this more or less “cooperative” behavior of elected politicians
could be sustainable in the environment of popular accountability. An essential component in building the theory of institutional
design is to show the possibility in a democracy of elected politicians cooperating on institutional matters even when each
of their constituencies would prefer to adjust the constitutional terms to its own advantage. Elite “cooperativeness” must
be sustainable even in the presence of outside challengers promising to stay closer to the constituent preferences. Here,
I present a model of mass-elite equilibrium of constitutional legitimacy, which demonstrates the possibility to motivate the
incumbents to sustain the institutional stability while at the same time protecting them from electoral defeat. I also discuss
the difficulties and limitations that such a solution faces, in particular, in plural societies.
JEL classification: H77, D02
In working on this paper, I have benefited from the discussions with Mikhail Filippov, Peter Ordeshook, Charles Kromkowski,
Carol Mershon, and from the comments of the participants of the conference on ‘‘Micro-Foundations of Federal Institutional
Stability’’ at the MicroIncentives Research Center at Duke University, Durham, NC, April 30–May 1, 2004, and of the Lansing
Lee proseminar at the University of Virginia. The responsibility for the many remaining flaws is solely mine. 相似文献
3.
Summary. We seek to explain the economic volatility of the last 6 years, in particular the rapid expansion and contraction of the knowledge sectors. Our hypothesis is that these sectors amplify the business cycle due to their increasing returns to scale, growing faster than others in an upswing and contracting faster in a downswing. To test this hypothesis we postulate a general equilibrium model with two sectors: one with increasing returns that are external to the firm and endogenously determined - the knowledge sector - and the other with constant returns to scale. We introduce a new measure of volatility of output, a real beta, and derive a resolving equation, from which we prove that the increasing return sectors exhibit more volatility then other sectors. We validate the main results on US macro economic data of real GDP by industry (2-3 digits SIC codes) of the 1977-2001 period, and provide policy conclusions.Received: 18 March 2002, Revised: 16 February 2004, JEL Classification Numbers:
D5, D58, E10, L50, L52, O38, O51.Correspondence to: Graciela Chichilnisky 相似文献
4.
5.
A Time to Scatter Stones,and a Time to Gather Them: The Annual Cycle in Hedge Fund Risk Taking
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Analyzing a sample of hedge fund daily returns from Bloomberg, we find a seasonal pattern in their risk taking. During earlier months of a year, poorly performing funds reduce risk. The reduction is stronger for funds with higher management fees, shorter redemption periods, and recently deteriorating performance, consistent with a managerial aversion to early fund liquidation. Toward the end of a year, poorly performing funds gamble for resurrection by increasing risk. It is largely achieved by increasing exposure to market factors, and can be linked to stronger indirect managerial incentives during the second half of a year. 相似文献
6.
Using Brazilian export data that, unlike many trade data sets, have a full record of small export sales, this paper reconsiders trade elasticities and the welfare gains from trade. Using the Brazilian data, this paper provides novel evidence on the properties of the distributions of log‐export sales and shows that the double exponentially modified Gaussian (EMG) distribution parsimoniously captures these properties. Using the double EMG distribution in a standard monopolistic competition model of trade, this paper demonstrates that data truncation, which is prevalent in many data sets, leads to an upward bias in measuring the partial elasticity of trade with respect to variable trade costs. This bias subsequently leads to the underestimation of the gains from trade by 1% to 9% depending on the extent of data truncation, a range that is commensurate with typical economic growth and large booms. 相似文献
7.
Olga Rozanova 《Bulletin of economic research》2017,69(4):E12-E18
This note considers the competing vertical structures framework with Cournot‐Bertrand competition downstream. It shows that the equilibrium wholesale price paid by a Cournot (Bertrand)‐type retailer is above (below) marginal costs of a corresponding manufacturer. This result contrasts with the one under pure competition downstream (i.e., Cournot or Bertrand), where the wholesale price is set below (above) marginal costs in case of a Cournot (Bertrand) game at the retail level. 相似文献
8.
Do investors actually value sustainability? New evidence from investor reactions to the Dow Jones Sustainability Index (DJSI)
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Research Summary: Research exploring investor reactions to sustainability has substantial empirical limitations, which we address with a large‐scale longitudinal financial event study of the first global sustainability index, DJSI World. We examine investor reactions to firms from 27 countries over 17 years that are added, deleted, or continue on the index. We find that once relevant controls and comparisons to observationally equivalent firms beyond the index are included, DJSI events have only limited significance and/or materiality. Nonetheless, investors' valuation of sustainability around the world has evolved over time, involving diminishing reactions to U.S. firms and increasing benefits, particularly of continuation on the index, over time. The study highlights the importance of careful analysis and longitudinal global samples in making inferences about the financial effects of social performance. Managerial Summary: The debate about how investors perceive corporate social responsibility (CSR) predates Milton Friedman's famous statement that the only social responsibility of business is to increase profits. Although extensive research has studied whether sustainability contributes to financial performance, we have yet to understand whether investors believe it pays off. This financial event study of reactions to the addition, continuation, and deletion from DJSI World, the first global sustainability index, shows that investors care little about DJSI announcements. Nonetheless, there is some evidence that global assessments of sustainability are converging and that investors may increasingly be valuing continuation on the DJSI, suggesting that firms may gain at least limited benefits from reliable sustainability activities. 相似文献
9.
Sian Christina Andrew Dainty Kevin Daniels Olga Tregaskis Patrick Waterson 《Human Resource Management Journal》2017,27(3):382-402
Anchored within the strategic HRM and alignment literature, and drawing on efficiency and legitimacy perspectives of organisational behaviour, we investigated a HRM intervention targeted at energy reduction goals in a large multinational retailer. The HRM intervention was focused on embedding the environmental and economic performance goals of the firm within the workplace through redesigning the job so that energy tasks were aligned with training and performance management systems, as well as organisational performance goals. Using a randomised control trial design, we tracked changes in energy behaviours and energy consumption in 769 retail stores (685 in the intervention condition, 84 in the control condition). The findings provide evidence that changing the alignment of HRM practices can influence both worker behaviour and organisational outcomes, including environmental outcomes. This work contributes to debates concerning the impact of HRM alignment on both the work and organisational performance context. 相似文献
10.
Flow Signals: Evidence from Patent and Alliance Portfolios in the US Biopharmaceutical Industry
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Integrating signalling theory and the portfolio diversity literature, we theorize that diversity in a firm's patent and alliance portfolios sends contrasting flow signals impacting its market value in a nuanced way. Diversity in an alliance portfolio mediates the patent portfolio diversity – market value relationship by suppressing the negative effect of patent portfolio diversity creating an overall positive effect. We test our mediation model on a longitudinal set of 225 US biopharmaceutical firms that were awarded 17,078 patents and participated in 37,744 alliances between 1990 and 2006. Our theory and findings contribute three novel insights. First, we demonstrate the value of a temporal lens in explaining why diversity in a firm's patent and alliance portfolios send flow signals that establish expectations among market observers and have performance implications. Second, establishing that patent and alliance portfolio diversity are temporally sequenced provides compelling evidence for the value of studying multiple types of portfolios, their temporal relationships and effects on firm outcomes. Third, since diversity in a firm's portfolios can send contrasting flow signals conditioned on the cognitive demands and proximity involved in interpreting the signals, firms that do not maintain a ‘signalling fit’ with market observers increase the probability of unintentional negative signalling effects. 相似文献