Smooth transition trends and labor force participation rates in the United States

This paper employs smooth transition trend models to investigate the long-run time series behavior of quarterly US labor force participation rates. In particular, we examine whether long-run growth in labor force participation rates can be modeled by smooth transitions between states rather than as abrupt mean level changes or as a stochastic trend. Smooth transitions permit for non-instantaneous adjustment of individual workers to changes associated with economic events or general labor market conditions. We employ unit root testing procedures with alternatives characterized by stationary fluctuations around one or two smooth transitions in linear trend. We examine labor force participation rates by gender- and age-specific groups. The results indicate that all female and most male participation series are better characterized as stationary processes that undergo transitional deterministics.     

An empirical analysis of the Scottish housing market by property type

This paper studies house price dynamics of the different property types in Scotland. We find evidence of i) breakpoints around the recent financial crisis in three property types (flats, terraced, semi‐detached) and in the average house prices, ii) volatility clustering in the detached house prices, with the CGARCH being the optimal volatility model, iii) negative impact of the unemployment and interest rates on house prices irrespective of the property type and positive effect of the CPI in the prices of the detached, terraced and average houses. Our results have significant implications for appropriate economic policy selection and investment management.     

Stuck at a workplace: What’s work control,demands and learning got to do with it? A longitudinal multilevel study on Swedish permanent employees in situations of ‘workplace locked-in’

Abstract

Whilst health consequences of being locked-in at the workplace have been documented in several research studies, it is largely unknown how work characteristics and their changes over time relate to risks for becoming locked-in at a certain workplace. Accordingly, this paper studied how perceived control, learning opportunities and quantitative demands at work associate with workplace-locked-in (WPLI). The study included permanent employees who participated in the Swedish Longitudinal Occupational Survey of Health (SLOSH) study in wave 3 through 5 (n = 2918 individuals; n = 7460 observations). Results from multi-level analysis show that there was significant individual variation in WPLI changes over time, even though on average, WPLI decreased slightly. Differences in work characteristics between individuals (L2) and across time (L1) associated significantly with WPLI: higher levels of job control and learning opportunities related to lower odds ratios for WPLI, whereas higher quantitative job demands associated with higher odds ratios of WPLI. Moreover, differences in quantitative job demands, number of job changes and educational achievements explained the individual variations of WPLI developments over time. The result shows that WPLI can – to some extent – be prevented or reduced through good work design, and implications for HR managers and organizations are discussed.     

Skewness of Returns, Capital Adequacy, and Mortgage Lending

We calibrate a simulation model of credit value-at-risk for mortgage lending to UK experience. Simulations to capture the skewness of returns that might arise in the context of a financial crisis suggest that the IRB calculations of the new Basel Accord can substantially understate prudential capital adequacy. The same model shows that raising capital requirements has only a small impact on bank funding costs. We conclude that Pillar 2 supervisory review should increase capital requirements above IRB levels for secured bank assets—those whose returns can potentially fall furthest, relative to other, normally “riskier” assets, in extreme outcomes. JEL classification: G21, G28, R31. Presented at the December 2003 conference at the University of Tor Vegata, Rome. We are grateful for comments from William Lang, Mario Onarato, Larry Wall, and from an anonymous referee. All errors and omissions are our own responsibility. “The lady doth protest too much, methinks. The Queen's response to the players in Hamlet, Act 3, scene 2.     

The contribution of marketing innovations on art organization performance: cases from the biggest art organizations in Greece

Marketing innovation approach in art organizations is the only way for them not only to survive in a period of limited public funding but also to expand their cultural mission. This study explores the effects of innovation on economic and cultural performances of nonprofit organizations by analyzing empirical evidence from the seven biggest art organizations in Greece. The findings show that marketing innovations on art organizations have a positive impact on their economic performance but have a limited impact on their cultural performance. Unlike previous studies, the specific marketing innovations that influence economic outcomes are examined, followed by recommendations and limitations. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling UK House Prices with Structural Breaks and Conditional Variance Analysis

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - This paper differs from previous research by examining the existence of structural breaks in the UK regional house prices as well as in the prices...     

Sequential probit modelling of family and community effects on educational progress among children to Polish and Turkish immigrants in Sweden

We explore effects of individual, family, and neighborhood effects on educational progress. The statistical model used is a multilevel sequential probit model. Such formulation allows the covariate-effects to vary across different educational levels. Results based on about 2,100 children whose parents are either native Swedes or migrants from Poland or Turkey provide new insights with regard to differentials in educational progress across background varaiables. Among others, we find that parental education is a strong predictor of educational progress at all levels. On the other hand, while family structure, family economy, and ethinic background are strongly correlated to educational progress at lower levels, their effect diminishes at higher levels of education. Possible exaplanations and implications of the results are presented.     

The financial and prudential performance of Chinese banks and Fintech lenders in the era of digitalization

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - The years 2013 to 2019 marked an explosion in Fintech in China. We analyze the financial and prudential performance of 40...