How useful are no-arbitrage restrictions for forecasting the term structure of interest rates?

We develop a general framework for analyzing the usefulness of imposing parameter restrictions on a forecasting model. We propose a measure of the usefulness of the restrictions that depends on the forecaster’s loss function and that could be time varying. We show how to conduct inference about this measure. The application of our methodology to analyzing the usefulness of no-arbitrage restrictions for forecasting the term structure of interest rates reveals that: (1) the restrictions have become less useful over time; (2) when using a statistical measure of accuracy, the restrictions are a useful way to reduce parameter estimation uncertainty, but are dominated by restrictions that do the same without using any theory; (3) when using an economic measure of accuracy, the no-arbitrage restrictions are no longer dominated by atheoretical restrictions, but for this to be true it is important that the restrictions incorporate a time-varying risk premium.     

The rise of risk-based pricing of mortgage interest rates in Italy

This paper assesses how much mortgage interest rates in Italy are priced on credit risk as proxied by the probability of household mortgage delinquency estimated using the EU-Silc database. Owing to data availability, we restrict the analysis of mortgage pricing to Italian households. Consistent with the more widespread use of credit scoring, estimates indicate that Italian lenders have increasingly priced mortgage interest rates on household credit risk. For mortgages granted between 2000 and 2007, we find that a 1% point increase in the probability of default is associated with a 21 basis point rise in mortgage interest rates, lower than the 38 basis point premium Edelberg (2006) estimated for the US at the end of the 1990s.     

Corruption, growth and ethnic fractionalization: a theoretical model

This paper analyzes the existing relationship between ethnic fractionalization, corruption and the growth rate of a country. We provide a simple theoretical model. We show that a nonlinear relationship between fractionalization and corruption exists: corruption is high in homogeneous or very fragmented countries, but low where fractionalization is intermediate. In fact, when ethnic diversity is intermediate, constituencies act as a check and balance device to limit ethnically-based corruption. Consequently, the relationship between fractionalization and growth rate is also non-linear: growth is high in the middle range of ethnic diversity, low in homogeneous or very fragmented countries.     

Supply chain configurations in a global environment: A longitudinal perspective

In the last few years, companies have paid growing attention to the management of their supply chain at a global level. The need for better suppliers, international competition and research of specific competences have forced companies to improve their ability to cope with suppliers and customers located in different countries around the world. This paper aims to provide an overview of how manufacturing companies use global supply chains and how their behaviour changes over time. Longitudinal data from a sample of companies from the last two editions of the International Manufacturing Strategy Survey (IMSS) are used. A contingent analysis of manufacturing localization and globalization is also considered in order to identify factors influencing supply chain globalization strategies. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.