Transaction Costs and Cattle Marketing: The Information Content of Seller-Provided Presale Data at Bull Auctions

At sales of breeding bulls, prospective buyers have strong incentives to undertake presale measurement activities. To reduce these transaction costs, sellers often provide information on sale bulls. We examine the information content of two measures of the expected performance of the bulls and find that within a given herd, older, simpler measures of performance contain more information about prices (from buyers' perspectives) than newer, more sophisticated measures known as expected progeny differences, or EPDs. We also find, however, that buyers appear to pay considerable attention to annual changes in herd-average EPD values when comparing animals from different sellers.     

Non-parametric estimation of historical volatility

Evolving volatility is a dominant feature observed in most financial time series and a key parameter used in option pricing and many other financial risk analyses. A number of methods for non-parametric scale estimation are reviewed and assessed with regard to the stylized features of financial time series. A new non-parametric procedure for estimating historical volatility is proposed based on local maximum likelihood estimation for the t-distribution. The performance of this procedure is assessed using simulated and real price data and is found to be the best among estimators we consider. We propose that it replaces the moving variance historical volatility estimator.     

Estimating the Structure of Market Reaction to News: Information Events and Lumber Futures Prices

We develop a new event-study technique, the distributional event response model (DERM), appropriate to relatively slowly evolving information events. We apply the model to twelve years of daily lumber futures prices and analyze the effects of three different types of information releases: ( a ) monthly housing starts estimates, ( b ) aperiodic administrative and judicial announcements about U.S.–Canada trade disputes, and ( c ) novel and unprecedented court decisions related to the Endangered Species Act (ESA). The information releases are different in ways that predict their relative speeds of impoundment in prices. We find that housing start events are absorbed more quickly than trade events, which are absorbed more quickly than ESA events.     

Robust covariance matrix estimation and identification of unusual data points: New tools

Most consistent estimators are prone to total breakdown in the presence of a handful of unusual data points (UDPs). This compromises inference. Robust estimation is a (seldom-used) solution; but methods commonly-used in applied research have severe drawbacks. In this paper, building upon methods that are relatively unknown outside of the robust statistics literature, we provide an enhanced tool for robust estimates of mean and covariance, useful both for robust estimation and for detection of unusual data points. It is relatively fast and useful for large data sets. We also provide a new robust cluster method, an input to our broader method, but also useful for standalone UDP detection or cluster analysis. We provide a comparative study of numerous methods that is not available in the current literature. Testing indicates that our method performs at par with, and often better than, two of the currently best available methods. We also demonstrate that the issues we discuss are not merely hypothetical, by applying our tools to real world data, and to re-examine two prominent economic studies. Our methods reveal that their central results are driven by a set of unusual points.     

Age and leadership effectiveness: From the perceptions of the follower

This study analyzes age and leader effectiveness based on empirical research. The study findings support the policy of fair employment and promotional availability regardless of age. There is some evidence to suggest younger supervisors engage in more relationship-oriented activities than older supervisors, who may have less need for the relationships.     

Auditor specialization, perceived audit quality, and audit fees in the local government audit market

Prior governmental research implies a positive relation between auditor specialization and audit quality, but the effect of specialization on audit fees is mixed. However, no single governmental study investigates the effect of auditor specialization on both audit quality and audit fees. Also, prior studies focus on either large- or small audit firms and often employ indirect proxies for audit quality. We study the effects of auditor specialization on perceived audit quality and audit fees. Our data represent both Big 5 and smaller audit firms and include three market-based measures of specialization. We survey 241 Florida local government finance directors and find that specialization is positively associated with perceived audit quality but not with audit fees. We also find that Big 5 auditors, often used as a proxy for higher audit quality in prior research, are not uniformly associated with increased perceived audit quality but consistently charge higher audit fees. Our results confirm a relation between measures of audit firm specialization and audit quality and raise questions regarding audit firm size and audit quality in the municipal sector. Our findings suggest that engaging specialized auditors may be good policy for many local governments.     

Managerial discretion and internal alignment under regulatory constraints and change

This paper investigates the effects of regulatory constraints and their relaxation on managerial discretion and internal fit in the context of the U.S. airline industry. Our results suggest that when managers' discretion is limited in one realm of choice, they compensate by using their greater level of discretion in some other arena to achieve internal fit. We show that the pursuit of fit matters, in the sense of having measurable efficiency consequences, and that fit trumps ‘best practice,’ at least in this context. In this respect, our findings provide a validation of the contingency perspective on internal fit. The ability to achieve fit under changing conditions may express a dynamic managerial capability necessary for adaptive organizational change. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Portlander's View of Smart Growth

Metro, a regional planning authority, has written and implemented the nation's strongest and most comprehensive smart-growth plan in Portland, Oregon. For a region expected to grow in population by 80 percent in the next five decades, Metro's plan calls for a mere 6 percent expansion of land area; high-density housing in the form of apartments, mixed-use developments, and single-family homes on small lots; pedestrian-friendly design codes; 125 miles of rail transit; and almost no new highway construction. Though smart-growth advocates promise their policies will reduce congestion, clean the air, provide affordable housing, protect open space, and reduce urban-service costs, Metro's plan does the opposite of all these things. Metro planners predict its plan will quadruple the time Portlanders waste sitting in traffic by 2020 and increase smog by 10 percent. The artificial land shortage posed by the urban-growth boundary has already turned Portland from one of the nation's most affordable housing markets to one of the ten least affordable ones. The plan's demand for infill development is sacrificing valuable urban open space to protect abundant rural open space. Rail transit and high-density developments both require huge subsidies. Portlanders initially supported Metro's efforts because they were told that planning would save Portland from becoming like Los Angeles, the nation's most congested and polluted urban area. In fact, Los Angeles is also the nation's densest urban area and has the fewest miles of freeway per capita, making it the epitome of smart growth. This actually led Metro to conclude that its goal is to “replicate” Los Angeles' development patterns in Portland. The result is that Portland-area residents are increasingly hostile to Metro's plans.     

Calibrating the exponential Ornstein–Uhlenbeck multiscale stochastic volatility model

This paper demonstrates a tractable and efficient way of calibrating a multiscale exponential Ornstein–Uhlenbeck stochastic volatility model including a correlation between the asset return and its volatility. As opposed to many contributions where this correlation is assumed to be null, this framework allows one to describe the leverage effect widely observed in equity markets. The resulting model is non-exponential and driven by a degenerate noise, thus requiring a high level of care in designing the estimation algorithm. The way this difficulty is overcome provides guidelines concerning the development of an estimation algorithm in a non-standard framework. The authors propose using a block-type expectation maximization algorithm along with particle smoothing. This method results in an accurate calibration process able to identify up to three timescale factors. Furthermore, we introduce an intuitive heuristic which can be used to choose the number of factors.