ON THE ESSENTIALITY OF BANKS*

We compare allocations sustained by credit with allocations sustained by bank notes (inside money) in a search model with decentralized trade and limited monitoring. We demonstrate that there exists a credit arrangement that is superior to inside money. However, in contrast with inside money, this arrangement is not robust to an expansion of trade that is not accompanied by an adequate increase in the degree of monitoring. Therefore, banks are essential when trade is intense and monitoring is limited. As a historical application, we argue that our model helps explain the origins of banking in Medieval and Early Modern Europe.     

Tourism Restructuring and the Politics of Sustainability: A Critical View From the European Periphery (The Canary Islands)

There has been considerable discussion of sustainable tourism development, in both theory and practice. Less attention has been paid to the discourses, ideologies and power relations which help to shape 'sustainable' tourism policies and planning instruments. This paper analyses recent initiatives introduced by the regional government of the Canary Islands, designed to bring about a more sustainable model of regional tourism, including a temporary moratorium on tourism development and the drafting of a strategic and normative set of guidelines for sustainable tourism. The paper considers the contested nature of the public debate that accompanied these initiatives within the wider context of the regionally distinct pattern of tourism and capitalist development. It is argued that the legacy of uneven development, and the entrenched power of regional economic and political élites, is likely to undermine the prospects for a just model of sustainable tourism, and to consolidate the continuing privatisation of space and socio-spatial inequalities across the region.     

Knowledge sharing and the dynamics of social capital

Mutual aid often entails the sharing of knowledge. We investigate how, in turn, knowledge sharing affects the long-run dynamics of mutual aid. In our economy, agents with specific knowledge are “held up” by their principals. Inside communities, agents aid each other by sharing their specific knowledge. This process generates a new type of knowledge which exacerbates the specificity of the existing types and induces more agents to engage in mutual aid. However, since the knowledge generated is shared, it progressively renders agents inside communities more flexible and, thus, less dependent on mutual aid. We characterize conditions under which in the long-run mutual aid spreads or is abandoned.     

FORECASTING VOLATILITY WITH THE MULTIFRACTAL RANDOM WALK MODEL

We study the problem of forecasting volatility for the multifractal random walk model. In order to avoid the ill‐posed problem of estimating the correlation length T of the model, we introduce a limiting object defined in a quotient space; formally, this object is an infinite range log volatility. For this object and the nonlimiting object, we obtain precise prediction formulas and we apply them to the problem of forecasting volatility and pricing options with the MRW model in the absence of a reliable estimate of σ and T.     

Rank reduction of correlation matrices by majorization

A novel algorithm is developed for the problem of finding a low-rank correlation matrix nearest to a given correlation matrix. The algorithm is based on majorization and, therefore, it is globally convergent. The algorithm is computationally efficient, is straightforward to implement, and can handle arbitrary weights on the entries of the correlation matrix. A simulation study suggests that majorization compares favourably with competing approaches in terms of the quality of the solution within a fixed computational time. The problem of rank reduction of correlation matrices occurs when pricing a derivative dependent on a large number of assets, where the asset prices are modelled as correlated log-normal processes. Such an application mainly concerns interest rates.     

Sharing information in the credit market: Contract-level evidence from U.S. firms

We investigate the impact of lenders' information sharing on firms' performance in the credit market using rich contract-level data from a U.S. credit bureau. The staggered entry of lenders into the bureau offers a natural experiment to identify the effect of lenders' improved access to information. Consistent with the predictions of 35 and 36 and Pagano and Jappelli (1993), we find that information sharing reduces contract delinquencies and defaults, especially when firms are informationally opaque. The results also reveal that information sharing does not reduce the use of guarantees, that is, it may not loosen lending standards.     

Topical modelling issues in Solvency II

The main reasons for giving European insurance companies the option to apply internal models for calculating the main solvency requirement within the Solvency II framework is to enhance better risk management in the firms, and to provide the opportunity to derive a more accurate risk-oriented capital requirement than the standard Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR) could provide. The possibility to use internal models within pillar 1 basically means freedom to calculate the solvency requirement using some other formula and even principles than those given by the standard formula. This freedom is more limited with partial models.

This paper gives a brief introduction and update to the Solvency II project, reviews and discusses some topical aspects of internal models from the supervisory point of view, and points out some relating results of the Quantitative Impact Studies carried out, thus far, in the EU by CEIOPS.     

Evolutionary selection of expectations in positive and negative feedback markets

An economic environment is a feedback system, where the dynamics of aggregate variables depend on individual expectations and vice versa. The type of feedback mechanism is crucial for the aggregate outcome. Experiments with human subjects (Heemeijer et al., J Econ Dyn Control 33:1052–1072, 2009) have shown that price converges to the fundamental level in a negative feedback environment but fails to do so under positive feedback. We present an explanation of these experimental results by means of a model of evolutionary switching between heuristics. Active heuristics are chosen endogenously, on the basis of their past performance. Under negative feedback an adaptive heuristic dominates explaining fast price convergence, whereas under positive feedback a trend-following heuristic dominates resulting in persistent price deviations and oscillations.     

Lending constraints,real estate prices and business cycles in emerging economies

We investigate a small open economy with constraints in both the domestic and the international credit market. The informational opaqueness of the domestic market hinders foreign lenders' activity, so that entrepreneurs face looser borrowing constraints vis-à-vis domestic financiers. However, limited capitalization constrains domestic lenders. Calibrating the model to data from Argentina, we find that the interaction between lending and borrowing constraints is a channel through which real interest rate shocks generate fluctuations in output, real estate prices and consumption. External financial liberalization increases volatility and affects welfare more than domestic liberalization but also mitigates the destabilizing impact of domestic deregulation.