On predictive distributions of public net liabilities

The analysis of the sustainability of public sector finances requires an accounting of all future revenues and all future spending that we would expect, under current tax laws and current entitlements. The classical calculation does not acknowledge the inherent uncertainty of the future economic and demographic developments, so the results can be misleading. Our aim is to produce a more robust summary of the sustainability of the public sector than the one currently available. By taking a forecasting point of view, our formulation takes into account the uncertainty of future productivity, stock and bond markets, and demography. Methodological complications that arise in the stochastic setting are discussed. Estimates of the relative roles of economics and demographics in the uncertainty of public net liabilities are presented.     

Is the gender gap in school performance affected by the sex of the teacher?

Girls outperform boys in school. We investigate whether the gender performance gap can be attributed to the fact that the teacher profession is female dominated, that is, is there a causal effect on student outcomes from having a same-sex teacher? Using data on upper-secondary school students and their teachers from the municipality of Stockholm, Sweden, we find that the gender performance differential is larger in subjects where the share of female teachers is higher. We argue, however, that this effect can not be interpreted as causal, mainly due to teacher selection into different subjects and non-random student-teacher matching. Exploring the fact that teacher turnover and student mobility give rise to variation in teacher's gender within student and subject, we estimate the effect on student outcomes of changing to a teacher of the same sex. We find no strong support for our initial hypothesis that a same-sex teacher improves student outcomes.     

Demographic determinants of incident experience and risk perception: do high-risk groups accurately perceive themselves as high-risk?

This paper analyzes demographic determinants of incident experience and risk perception, as well as the relationship between the two, for eight different risk domains. Analyses were conducted by merging the results of a Swedish population-based survey, which includes approximately 15,000 individuals, with demographic and socio-economic register data. Being male was associated with higher incident experience yet a lower risk perception for nearly all risk domains. Lower socioeconomic status was associated with higher incident experience for falls, and being a victim of violence but lower incident experience for road traffic accidents. Lower socioeconomic status was also associated with higher risk perception for falls. On aggregate, ranking the different domains, respondents’ risk perception was in almost perfect correspondence to the ranking of actual incident experience, with the exception that the risk of being a victim of violence is ranked higher than indicated by actual incident experience. On a demographic group level, men and highly educated respondents perceive their risks to be lower than what is expected considering their actual incident experience.     

Perceived and expected price changes in Finland

Zusammenfassung Wahrgenommene und erwartete Preis?nderungen in Finnland. -Dieser Aufsatz untersucht die Verteilung der in den fünf Jahren vor einer Konsumentenbefragung wahrgenommenen Preisniveaus und die Verteilung der für die folgenden fünf Jahre erwarteten Preisniveaus. Au\er den Beziehungen zwischen diesen Verteilungen untersuchen die Autoren die “Wirkungen”, welche eine Reihe von Variablen — wie Alter, Geschlecht und sozio-?konomische Stellung — auf die Entwicklung der beobachteten und erwarteten Preisniveaus haben. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, da\ es eine gro\e Streuung unter den befragten Personen gibt, und zwar nicht nur im Hinblick auf die erwartete, sondern auch auf die beobachtete Preisentwicklung. Die erwartete Preisniveauentwicklung korreliert stark mit der in der Vergangenheit beobachteten, so da\ die Erwartungen in gewissem Umfang durch einfache Extrapolationsmodelle erkl?rt werden k?nnen, in die die (richtigen oder falschen) Vorstellungen über die Vergangenheit eingehen. Im übrigen unterscheiden sich die durchschnittlichen Ansichten über frühere oder zukünftige Preise, sobald man die befragten Personen nach sozio-?konomischer Stellung, Bildung, Geschlecht oder Alter in Gruppen zusammenfa\t.

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Résumé Changements des prix per?us et attendus en Finlande. — Cet article analyse la distribution des niveaux de prix per?us pendant une période de cinq années qui précède un sondage transversal et la distribution des niveaux de prix attendus pendant la période de cinq années qui suit. Les auteurs examinent les inter-relations entre ces distributions ainsi que les ?effets? sur les mouvements de prix per?us et attendus causés par un nombre des variables comme par exemple l’áge, le sexe et la position socio-économique. Les résultats suggèrent qu’il y a une grande dispersion à travers les répondants pas seulement regardant les développements des prix attendus mais aussi concernant les prix per?us. Le niveau des prix attendus et le niveau des prix per?us manifestent une forte corrélation et c’est pourquoi les expectatives peuvent être expliquées dans une certaine mesure par des modèles simples extrapolatifs qui se fondent sur des idées (correctes ou fausses) sur le passé. De plus, les vues moyennes sur les prix passés et futurs sont différentes si les personnes sont groupées par e.g. leur position socio-économique, leur niveau de connaissance, le sexe et l’age.

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Resumen Variaciones de precios percibidas y esperadas en Finlandia. — En este artículo se investiga la distribución de nivelés de precios percibidos durante un período de cinco a?os que precede al tiempo de un análisis de corte transversal y la distribución de nivelés de precios esperados en el perfodo de cinco anos siguiente. Aparte de las interrelaciones entre estas distribuciones, los autores investigan los ?efectos? sobre movimientos de precios percibidos y esperados de una cantidad de variables como la edad, sexo y position socio-económica. Los resultados sugieren que hay una gran diespersión a través de los individuos interrogados no solamente en el desarrollo esperado de precios sino que en el percibido. Niveles de precios futuros esperados y niveles de precios pasados percibidos tenían una correlación estrecha y las expectativas pueden explicarse, por lo tanto, en cierta medida por modelos simples y extrapolativos basados en ideas (verdaderas o equivocadas) acerca del pasado. Aún más, las visiones promedio sobre precios pasados y futuros se diferencian cuando las personas se agrupan, por ejemplo, de acuerdo a su status socio-económico, nivel de conocimientos, sexo y edad.

     

Detracking Swedish compulsory schools: any losers, any winners?

In this article, I use within-school variation to estimate the effect of tracking. I exploit the fact not only that different tracking policies were practiced simultaneously in Swedish compulsory schools but also that tracking policies changed overtime within schools. I estimate not only if being in a tracked math environment had any effect on the probability of graduating from high school but also if tracking status had any impact on the math grade in high school. The results show that there are no significant average effects of tracking. However, there are effects in the lower part of the grade distribution. Students with a low-educated family background are more likely to fail math at high school if they have attended a compulsory school that practiced tracking compared to similar students in a non-tracked environment.     

Globalization and marketing strategies of Born Globals in SMOPECs

This research examines Born Global companies, which are facing tremendous entrepreneurial and managerial challenges related to instant or rapid globalization. A major research problem addressed is whether the strategies and processes of Born Globals differ essentially from those of other firms in respect to globalization and global marketing. Based on a literature analysis, we first examine the concept of Born Globals and then turn to a review of the research dealing with the globalization and marketing strategies of Born Globals. Survey results on 89 Finnish Born Globals from high‐tech, high‐design, high‐service, high‐know‐how, and high‐system business areas are presented. Their domestic stage lasts for an average of only 2.1 years. For conventional companies, the period is ten times longer. Furthermore, Born Globals can be classified on the basis of their development into three preliminary stages (research & development [RD], domestic, and entry) and into four major stages (starting, development, growth, and mature). The study then proceeds to examine the globalization and global marketing strategies of Born Globals through a multiple case study of 30 case companies representing the above development stages. Special attention is paid to the mature Born Globals, which were found to have passed quickly through the conventional internationalization stages, jumped over some stages, and, in some cases, even progressed in reverse order. After this, attention turns to a detailed examination of the challenges identified and their solutions for three particular interest groups: entrepreneurs, government policymakers, and academicians. The implications of the results for entrepreneurs should be of particular importance, as managerial, research and development, sales and marketing, and also financial challenges and solutions are covered in detail. Finally, this research concludes that although many of the Born Global findings deviate from the internationalization behavior of conventional companies, the holistic and company‐level stage models still seem to have a high degree of explanatory power for many companies originating in small and open economies (SMOPEC). © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.