The demographic impact of AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa: short- and long-term projections

"This paper describes the methodology used to incorporate AIDS mortality in recently revised World Bank population projections....The paper first reviews different approaches for projecting AIDS and its demographic consequences. This is followed by a summary of an epidemiological model that simulates the spread of HIV used in this analysis, and a demographic model that translates mortality from AIDS into population outcomes. These models are then used in a set of simulations, from which the effect of current HIV prevalence on projected future mortality is extracted. Finally, the extracted equations linking current HIV prevalence with future mortality indicators are applied to sub-Saharan countries with a measurable level of current HIV prevalence."     

Determinants of internal and external R&D: Some Dutch evidence

Summary Innovating firms can choose to engage in either internal or external R&D, or in both. In the current study, we shall examine internal and external R&D separately to determine empirically the market structure characteristics explaining the external R&D share and the differences in market structure determinants between internal and external R&D. Our results indicate that a government policy that aims at stimulating technological progress by offering external research facilities is particularly interesting for smaller, capital-intensive firms operating in less concentrated markets.We would like to thank Alfred Kleinknecht for providing the R&D data and Kees Bakker and Yvonne Prince for providing the market structure data. We thank Alfred Kleinknecht, Bart Nooteboom and an anonymous referee for their comments and suggestions We acknowledge a research grant from the Stichting KMO Fonds.     

Menu-dependent preferences and revelation principle

We extend the set of preferences to include menu-dependent preferences and characterize the domain in which the revelation principle holds. A weakening of the well-known contraction consistency is shown to define a subset of this domain. However, we show that minimax-regret preference can be outside the domain.     

Occupational job creation: patterns and implications

This paper empirically investigates the matching process ofjob seekers and job vacancies, on different occupational labormarkets, and reveals the relative importance of supply and demandfactors, and frictions in the job creation process. Using datafrom German administrative records, we estimate matching functionsboth on the aggregate level, and for different occupationaland educational groups. The data allow to avoid some of theusual problems in empirical matching studies; extensive robustnessand stationarity tests are carried out. The results indicatesubstantial heterogeneity in the matching processes at disaggregatelevels. This information can be useful for policymakers, sincepolicy interventions that are effective in creating employmenton some occupational labor markets might lead to unsatisfactoryresults for other occupations.     

Accounting for distress in bank mergers

Most bank merger studies do not control for hidden bailouts, which may lead to biased results. In this study we employ a unique data set of approximately 1000 mergers to analyze the determinants of bank mergers. We use undisclosed information on banks’ regulatory intervention history to distinguish between distressed and non-distressed mergers. Among merging banks, we find that improving financial profiles lower the likelihood of distressed mergers more than the likelihood of non-distressed mergers. The likelihood to acquire a bank is also reduced but less than the probability to be acquired. Both distressed and non-distressed mergers have worse CAMEL profiles than non-merging banks. Hence, non-distressed mergers may be motivated by the desire to forestall serious future financial distress and prevent regulatory intervention.     

The Eyes Have It: How a Car's Face Influences Consumer Categorization and Evaluation of Product Line Extensions

This research focuses on a previously unexamined risk associated with the widely used new product development strategy of line extensions. Specifically, it explores consumer reactions when line extensions become too visually similar and examines both short‐term and longer term strategies for solving the problem. Examined in the context of consumer durables, specifically, automobiles, the results show that consumers who make categorization mistakes when trying to distinguish between two visually similar product lines have more negative attitudes not only toward the product but also toward the parent brand. The results of Study 1 confirm that providing a design vocabulary that articulates the car's design features is effective in reducing consumer's categorization mistakes. In addition, results of Study 2 indicate that changes to the car's “eyes” (headlights) are more effective than changes to the car's “mouth” (grille) in helping consumers to differentiate among cars in the line.     

The Gilt-Equity Yield Ratio and the Predictability of UK and US Equity Returns

A number of financial variables have been shown to be effective in explaining the time-series of aggregate equity returns in both the UK and the US. These include, inter alia , the equity dividend yield, the spread between the yields on long and short government bonds, and the lagged equity return. Recently, however, the ratio between the long government bond yield and the equity dividend yield – the gilt-equity yield ratio – has emerged as a variable that has considerable explanatory power for UK equity returns. This paper compares the predictive ability of the gilt-equity yield ratio with these other variables for UK and US equity returns, providing evidence on both in-sample and out-of-sample performance. For UK monthly returns, it is shown that while the dividend yield has substantial in-sample explanatory power, this is not matched by out-of sample forecast accuracy. The gilt-equity yield ratio, in contrast, performs well both in-sample and out-of-sample. Although the predictability of US monthly equity returns is much lower than for the UK, a similar result emerges, with the gilt-equity yield ratio dominating the other variables in terms of both in-sample explanatory power and out-of-sample forecast performance. The gilt-equity yield ratio is also shown to have substantial predictive ability for long horizon returns.     

COMPETITION POLICY AND CARTEL SIZE

This article examines endogenous cartel formation in the presence of a competition authority. Competition policy is shown to make the most inclusive stable cartels less inclusive. In particular, small firms that might have been cartel members in the absence of a competition authority are no longer members. Regarding the least inclusive stable cartels, competition policy can either decrease or increase their size and, in the latter case, the collusive price can rise.