银行危机与政府干预——基于中国金融史的研究

当银行危机到来时,政府是否应当进行干预？政府干预对银行业会产生何种影响？这些问题在金融史研究中长期以来备受关注,且具有重要的现实意义。本文以1934年白银风潮冲击下中国大规模的银行危机为背景,对比了当时中国最大的两个金融中心上海和天津的银行业同业组织在危机中的表现,发现天津银行业同业公会成员相比于非银行同业公会的成员受到了更严重的挤兑危机,且在危机期间放款额出现了更显著的下降。而上海银行同业公会则没有受到大规模挤兑,且反而在金融危机期间扩大了信贷规模。本文认为是由于政府干预程度的不同导致了津沪两地银行同业公会的不同表现。具体机制为:其一,政府干预推动了银行业信息公开,降低了信息不对称带来的恐慌和挤兑;其二,政府干预下银行组织承担了更多的财政义务。     

性别偏好与人口转型

人口转型是工业化发展过程中普遍发生的重要经济和社会现象。本文从性别偏好对生育决策的影响这个角度解释了为什么当经济发展到一定程度后,人口生育率会显著下降。本文通过动态一般均衡模型说明了资本积累和技术进步会缩小男女劳动力在生产效率上的差异,从而使男女工资的不平等减少。而性别偏好程度又取决于男女劳动回报的差异,因此经济发展会降低性别偏好的程度,提高女孩对于家庭效用的贡献,这将影响到家庭的生育决策。数值模拟的结果表明,性别偏好程度的下降对人口转型具有重要的影响,当性别偏好程度显著降低时,人口生育率会下降。     

Foreign direct investment via M&A and domestic entrepreneurship: blessing or curse?

There are conflicting predictions in the literature about the relationship between FDI and entrepreneurship. This paper explores how foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, measured by lagged cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A), affect entrepreneurial entry in the host economy. We have constructed a micro-panel of more than two thousand individuals in each of seventy countries, 2000–2009, linked to FDI by matching sectors. We find the relationship between FDI inflows and domestic entrepreneurship to be negative across all economies. This negative effect is much more pronounced in developed than developing economies and is also identified within industries, notably in manufacturing. Policies to encourage FDI via M&A need to consider how to counteract the prevailing adverse effect on domestic entrepreneurship.     

Real estate prices in Beijing, 1644 to 1840

This paper provides the first estimates of housing price movements for Beijing in late pre-modern China. We hand-collect from archival sources transaction prices and other house attribute information from the 498 surviving house sale contracts for Beijing during the first two centuries of the Qing Dynasty (1644–1840), a long period without major wars, political turmoil, or significant institutional change in the Chinese capital. We use hedonic methods to construct a real estate price index for Beijing for the period. The regression analysis explains a major proportion of the variance of housing prices. We find that house prices grew steadily for the first half-century of the Qing Dynasty and declined afterwards in both nominal and real terms through the late eighteenth century. Nominal prices grew starting in the late eighteenth century and declined from the early nineteenth century through 1840. But these price changes occurred with contemporaneous price changes in basic measures of the cost of living: there was little change in real terms to the end of our period.     

地方政府利益、地方政府行为与经济增长

目前,对中国地方政府的经济行为的研究强调了在经济转型过程中地方政府在多样化的地方经济发展模式中的主导作用,注意到了地方政府目标的多重性,本地区社会福利最大化,政府利益最大化以及中央政府的满意程度等。对地方政府在公共产品的提供、就业、收入分配、实现社会公平等方面行为不到位方面的研究是从定性方法来论证。本文试图在定性分析基础上建立一些基本的数学模型为将来的计量研究提供一个模型框架。     

Technology roadmapping (TRM) and strategic alignment for an applied research centre: a case study with methodological contributions

Technology roadmapping provides a strategic tool to help companies develop an outside‐in view and challenge their current competitive perspectives. In this paper, the authors describe the roadmapping process, which is aligned, with the research and development (R&D) strategy of an applied research centre. This process is based in an adapted combination of state‐of‐the‐art methodologies, and as a result, the case study shows interesting findings in terms of R&D strategy, technology strategy and roadmapping processes and methodology.     

住房市场调控新政能够实现“居者有其屋”吗?——一个动态一般均衡的理论分析

我们建立了一个包括买房和租房决策的DSGE模型,计算房价和房租的动态轨迹,分析六种住房调控政策的影响:提高贷款利率、提高首付比例、对新购房征收房产税、对存量房征收房产税、对小户型免税和对大户型征税。数值模拟发现,这些调控政策通过抑制住房消费来降低房价,把购房需求转化为租房需求,从而推高了房租。其中,对新购房征税的效果最小,只能轻微降低房价,却显著推高房租;而对存量房征税会对房价、地价和房租产生极大冲击。     

The Effects of Brand Strategy and Technological Uncertainty on Pioneering Advantage in the Multigenerational Product Market

This research investigates how brand strategy and technological uncertainty influence the order‐of‐entry effects for a previous generation pioneer in the successive generation. The findings of our longitudinal experiment reemphasize the importance of continuous pioneering, demonstrating that consumers exhibit a strong preference for a previous generation pioneer's product when it continues to pioneer the successive generation. More importantly, the findings indicate that continuous pioneering with a new brand leads to greater brand preferences when technological uncertainty is high. This is because in that condition, consumers perceive greater innovativeness with a new brand than with the extant one. On the other hand, an extant brand increases consumer brand preferences for a previous generation pioneer's product in the successive generation when technological uncertainty is low. The theoretical and practical implications of the results for understanding and managing pioneering advantage and brand strategy in the multigenerational product markets are discussed.     

Dynamic price dependence of Canadian and international art markets: an empirical analysis

Although the market for Canadian paintings is now of substantial magnitude, with several works having recently been sold for well over a million dollars, it remains true that with very few exceptions, the works of Canadian painters are bought and sold only in Canada and seem to be held only by Canadian collectors. This market can thus be viewed as largely local, and it is therefore not clear whether there should be any linkage between price movements for Canadian art and those for the mainstream international market in old master, impressionist, and modern art. This article investigates the presence and nature of such time series dependence econometrically, both in terms of long-term trends as reflected in the co-integrating relationship between Canadian and the international market, and in terms of short-run co-movements as represented in correlations. The possibility that the local market ??follows?? the international one is also considered through an analysis of Granger causality. For Canadian art prices, we use a new hedonic index that has been computed using an updated version of the dataset of Hodgson and Vorkink (Can J Econ 37:629?C655, 2004), while for the international prices, we use an index provided by Mei and Moses (Am Econ Rev 92:1656?C1668, 2002).