Commercial release of first-generation genetically modified food products in New Zealand: using a partial equilibrium trade model to assess the impact on producer returns in New Zealand

In the present paper, the impact of genetically modified (GM) food production on producers, consumers and trade in New Zealand is simulated under various scenarios using the Lincoln Trade and Environment Model (LTEM). The LTEM simulates, against various assumptions of proportions of GM/GM-free production, the impact of various scenarios relating to preference for or against GM production. The results from this preliminary analysis show that the greatest positive impact on New Zealand income is from following a GM-free strategy, where it is assumed such markets as the European Union and Japan have a large switch in preference away from GM food, followed by the scenario when there is a 20% preference for GM-free.     

Conceptualization of the real economy and Islamic finance: Transformation beyond the asset‐link rhetoric

A key factor behind the chronic crises in modern economies is the growing dominance of financialization and the resulting disconnect between the real economy and the financial sector, to which conventional financial industry is a key contributor. In contrast, Islamic finance claims to be real‐economy‐oriented, as all transactions must be asset‐linked (asset‐backed or asset‐based). However, is Islamic Finance based on proper conceptualization of the real economy? What is the real economy and its dynamics? How Islamic finance is interfaced with the real economy? In this article, the claimed real‐economy‐orientation is examined by presenting a conceptualization of the real economy and then evaluating the related discourse accordingly. The analysis presented, especially for noneconomists, exposes a serious gap between the claims about Islamic finance and the real economy it is supposed to advance. Appropriate conceptualization of the real economy can help the industry to be relevant and effective for broader socioeconomic transformation.     

The role of unemployment in wage determination: further evidence on the wage curve from Turkey

This paper presents an empirical estimation of the correlation between wages and regional unemployment rates in Turkey, more specifically it explores the role of regional unemployment rates in wage determination. The analysis builds upon a series of recent empirical studies on the wage-unemployment relationship, now commonly known as ‘the wage curve’, a downward sloping curve in wage-unemployment space. The existing studies are for most part in advanced market economies, while this paper presents one of the few attempts at a wage curve analysis within the context of a developing market economy. A cross-sectional estimation of micro level individual wage data for the Turkish labour market in 1994, suggest a statistically significant negative correlation between wages and regional unemployment rates. Separate regressions for men and women, however, show a wage curve to exist only in the male labour market. The study also presents the results on other variables of wage determination such as returns to schooling, returns to age, job tenure, gender, industrial and occupational affiliation of the worker, economic sector and union status.     

Capital inflows: Macroeconomic implications and policy responses

This paper examines the macroeconomic implications of and policy responses to surges in private capital inflows across a large group of emerging and advanced economies. In particular, we identify 109 episodes of large net private capital inflows to 52 countries over 1987–2007. Episodes of large capital inflows are often associated with real exchange rate appreciations and deteriorating current account balances. More importantly, such episodes tend to be accompanied by an acceleration of GDP growth, but afterwards growth has often dropped significantly. A comprehensive assessment of various policy responses to the large inflow episodes leads to three major conclusions. First, keeping public expenditure growth steady during episodes can help limit real currency appreciation and foster better growth outcomes in their aftermath. Second, resisting nominal exchange rate appreciation through sterilized intervention is likely to be ineffective when the influx of capital is persistent. Third, tightening capital controls has not in general been associated with better outcomes.     

Finance and poverty: Evidence from fixed effect vector decomposition

In this paper we attempt to distinguish the direct effect of financial development on poverty reduction from its indirect effect through economic growth. Using an efficient estimator called fixed effect vector decomposition (FEVD) we employ a set of panel data from 54 developing countries for the period 1993–2004. Our results indicate that on average financial development is conducive for poverty reduction but the instability accompanying financial development is detrimental to the poor. The major policy recommendations suggested by the paper indicate that financial sector reforms should be directed at easing credit restrictions while taking into consideration the effects of financial instability on the poor.     

Emiratisation: determining the factors that influence the recruitment decisions of employers in the UAE

The Arab Gulf's labour market is being overhauled. The private sector is increasingly being ‘obliged’ to more actively support nationalisation programmes. This study seeks to quantitatively determine the recruitment decisions of the employers. We collated the views of just under 250 UAE-based HRM personnel, in order to identify which factors (social, cultural, economic, regulatory, educational and motivational) are most significant as cited in the relevant literature. Not having the necessary educational qualifications and high reservation wage demands were found to have less of a bearing than does the perceived lack of vocationally orientated motivation and the ambiguities over the differing rights afforded to employees.     

Why are IPO investors net buyers through lead underwriters?

In Nasdaq initial public offerings (IPOs) issued between 1997 and 2002, purchases of lead underwriter clients exceed sales by an amount equal to 8.79% of the total issue. We find that lead underwriter clients do not buy to build larger long-term positions, capitalize on superior execution quality, or because of clientele effects. However, characteristics of net buying that are at odds with these explanations and other behaviors (like institutional purchases of cold IPOs) are all consistent with lead underwriters engaging in quid pro quo arrangements with clients. Price contribution analysis shows that such client buying activity contributes significantly to first-day price increases.     

Financial stress and economic contractions

This paper examines why some financial stress episodes lead to economic downturns. The paper identifies episodes of financial turmoil in advanced economies using a financial stress index (FSI), and proposes an analytical framework to assess the impact of financial stress – in particular banking distress – on the real economy. It concludes that financial turmoil characterized by banking distress is more likely to be associated with deeper and longer downturns than stress mainly in securities or foreign exchange markets. Economies with more arm's-length financial systems seem to be more exposed to contractions in activity following financial stress, due to the greater procyclicality of leverage in their banking systems.     

CAN A RULE‐BASED MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK WORK IN A DEVELOPING COUNTRY? THE CASE OF YEMEN

Monetary policy in Yemen is largely rudimentary and ad hoc in nature. The Central Bank of Yemen's (CBY) approach has been based on discretionary targeting of broad money without any clear target to anchor inflation expectations. This paper argues in favor of a new formal monetary policy framework for Yemen emphasizing a proactive and rule‐based approach with a greater direct focus on price stability in the context of a flexible management of the exchange rate. Although, as in many developing countries, institutional capacity is a concern, adopting a more formal framework could impel the kind of changes that are required to strengthen the ability of the CBY in achieving low and stable rates of inflation over the medium term.