Duopoly conjectures

This paper embodies the views of the author and does not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia or of the Federal Reserve System.     

Local and National Impacts from Landing North Sea Gas in Western Norway

A bstract . A simple framework is presented for the analysis of the local employment, income, sales , and local government impacts of landing North Sea gas at either of two Norwegian kommunes (municipalities). These impacts indicate the different forms of economic change arising from a major economic development event. The average annual net change in these economic measures is estimated for the operational phase of a gas terminal. The analysis indicated substantial differences in local and regional net gains. Both sites yielded positive neteconomic gains, which means noneconomic and national considerations become key decision determinates. These national issues provide the setting to judge the local/regional net gains. The unresolved questions include the national benefits and costs of the landing decision given the small scale of the Norwegian economy, potential future gas finds, and a fully employed economy.     

Resale price maintenance and restrictions on dominant firm and industry-wide adoption

We consider a model in which firms use resale price maintenance (RPM) to dampen competition. We find that even though the motive for using RPM is thus anti-competitive, market forces may limit the overall adverse impact on consumers. Indeed, we find that when there are a large number of firms in the market, consumer welfare under a laissez-faire policy might be as high or almost as high as it would be under an alternative policy in which RPM is banned. Government interventions that put an upper limit on the extent of industry-wide adoption of RPM can have adverse welfare effects in the model. We further show that proposed guidelines in the United States and Europe may come close to minimizing welfare.     

Monopoly rationing revisited

This paper establishes that, whenever a simple pricing strategy fails to attain to the rationing outcome, a more complex pure price strategy may yet do so. It is also shown that rising marginal cost with uncertain demand may make rationing beneficial.     

The Winner''s Curse in Banking

Theoretical studies have noted that loan applicants rejected by one bank can apply at another bank, systematically worsening the pool of applicants faced by all banks. This study presents the first empirical evidence of this effect and explores some additional ramifications, including the role of common filters—such as commercially available credit scoring models—in mitigating this adverse selection; implications forde novobanks; implications for banks' incentives to comply with fair lending laws; and macroeconomic effects. The evidence supports the simple theory regarding loan loss rates but indicates a positive association between bank structure and income growth.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers: G21, D80, L10.     

Gender, poverty and deprivation: Evidence from the Republic of Guinea

The article examines the relationship between gender and consumption poverty and between gender and deprivation in the Republic of Guinea. National household survey data reveal that women are not more likely than men to be consumption poor or to suffer greater consumption poverty. Participatory Poverty Assessment data from the village of Kamatiguia reveal that women are “worse off” than men when deprivation includes, inter alia, excessive work load and reduced decision-making authority. When consumption poverty poorly correlates with other dimensions of deprivation, it should not be the sole guide for equity-based policy intervention.     

Endogenous screening, credit crunches, and competition in laxity

A simple model of lending with endogenous screening predicts that risk-neutral banks tend to adopt tighter lending standards under several conditions commonly seen in recessions: lower interest rates (or spreads), higher default rates, or a smaller fraction of good borrowers. Historical data support these predictions. In addition, better information about borrower types encourages tighter lending standards, and competition in laxity can arise with multiple banks. Within the class of symmetric screening decisions, endogenizing the interest rates disrupts the existence of equilibrium in pure strategies, just as when screening decisions are assumed to be exogenous.     

The Financial and Operational Impacts of FERC Order 636 on the Interstate Natural Gas Pipeline Industry

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's Order 636 fundamentally altered the regulatory and operational environment of the natural gas industry in 1992, as the culmination of several directives aimed at relaxing regulation and fostering competition. We hypothesize that gas pipeline firms subsequently changed their operational and financial behavior in ways consistent with reduced balkanization, increased competition, and reduced expense preference behavior. Our results indicate that these firms have become more homogeneous financially but less so operationally. We find evidence that the marginal profitability of various pipeline activities has responded more to financial market conditions than to the regulatory environment.     

The Competitive Impact of Disclosure Requirements in the Credit Card Industry

Theoretical studies have questioned the efficacy of mandatory disclosure requirements under various conditions, but empirical studies of disclosure requirements have been rare. This paper tests the impact of the Fair Credit and Charge Card Disclosure Act of 1988, enacted specifically to increase the degree of competition in the credit card industry in the face of suspected consumer search costs. The findings suggest that the Act failed to achieve its intended purpose.