Inference for large financial systems

We treat the parameter estimation problem for mean‐field models of large interacting financial systems such as the banking system and a pool of assets held by an institution or backing a security. We develop an asymptotic inference approach that addresses the scale and complexity of such systems. Harnessing the weak convergence results developed for mean‐field financial systems in the literature, we construct an approximate likelihood for large systems. The approximate likelihood has a conditionally Gaussian structure, enabling us to design an efficient numerical method for its evaluation. We provide a representation of the corresponding approximate estimator in terms of a weighted least‐squares estimator, and use it to analyze the large‐system and large‐sample behavior of the estimator. Numerical results for a mean‐field model of systemic financial risk highlight the efficiency and accuracy of our estimator.     

Premia for correlated default risk

Using data on corporate default experience in the U.S. and market rates of CDX index and tranche swaps of various maturities, we estimate reduced-form models of correlated default timing in the CDX High Yield and Investment Grade portfolios under actual and risk-neutral probabilities. The striking contrast between the estimated processes followed by the actual and risk-neutral arrival intensities of defaults, and between the parameters governing the actual and risk-neutral dynamics of the risk-neutral intensities, indicates the presence of substantial default risk premia in CDX swap market rates. The effects of risk premia on swap rates covary strongly across maturities, and depend on general stock market volatility and several measures of credit spreads. Large moves in the effects of these premia on swap rates have natural interpretations in terms of economic and financial market developments during the sample period, April 2004 to October 2007. Our results suggest that a large portion of the movements in CDX swap market rates observed during the sample period may be caused by changing attitudes toward correlated default risk rather than changes in the economic factors affecting the actual risk of clustered defaults, which ultimately governs swap payoffs.     

Forecasting development outcomes under alternative surplus labour assumptions

Economic forecasts are useful to policymakers both as aids to planning, and as baselines against which counterfactual scenarios can be compared. However, policy makers should be aware that assumptions relating to model structure can influence forecast results. We explore the sensitivity of forecasts to one aspect of model structure important in modelling developing economies: surplus agricultural labour. We outline a framework for modelling surplus agricultural labour that relies on average product remuneration. We embed this within a model of a developing economy (the Philippines) characterized by surplus agricultural labour. We compare the results of two forecasts that differ in their treatment of the agricultural labour market. In the first, the surplus labour theory is activated, establishing average product remuneration in agriculture. In the second, the surplus labour theory is not activated, creating a failure to recognize average product remuneration in agriculture. By comparing the two simulations, we show that failure to model the presence of average product remuneration, when it would be appropriate to do so, has an impact that would be material to economic planners, leading them to: under-estimate agricultural employment; over-estimate GDP growth; and, over-estimate important policy variables (like tax revenue) that are related to GDP growth.     

Intermarket efficiency: An application of interbattery APT to mortgage-backed securities

Increasing popularity of investments in mortgage-backed securities has led to closer integration of the mortgage market into traditional capital markets. Using monthly returns during 1982–1988 for common stocks, Treasury bonds and GNMA and FHLMC mortgage-backed securities, the interbattery factor analytic Arbitrage Pricing Theory of (Cho, 1984) is used to test five hypotheses for intramarket and intermarket integration. Results indicate that three to five common factors are found within the same security market, while only one to three factors are found common between different markets.The APT could not be rejected within the same security market, but was rejected in most intermarket comparisons. While risk-free rates are found to differ between markets, the risk premium tests are conclusive indicators of integration. Our results support claims that the stock, bond, and the mortgage-backed securities markets are integrated.     

Cyclical correlations, credit contagion, and portfolio losses

We model aggregate credit losses on large portfolios of financial positions contracted with firms subject to both cyclical default correlation and direct default contagion processes. Cyclical correlation is due to the dependence of firms on common economic factors. Contagion is associated with the local interaction of firms with their business partners. We provide an explicit normal approximation of the distribution of portfolio losses. We quantify the relation between the variability of global economic fundamentals, strength of local firm interaction, and the fluctuation of losses. We find that cyclical oscillations in fundamentals dominate average losses, while local interaction causes additional fluctuations of losses around their average. The strength of the contagion-induced loss variability depends on the complexity of the business partner network.     

How talent capability can shape service analytics capability in the big data environment?

We know very little about how big data-driven service analytics capabilities (SAC) are built in data-driven service organizations and the potential role of talent capability in facilitating overall SAC and the impact of both on firm performance (FPER). Drawing on the dynamic capabilities (DC) approach, this study investigates the link between SAC and FPER examining the mediating role of talent capability and the moderating influence of a firm’s strategic alignment. On the basis of two Delphi studies and survey data from 267 service analysts in the US and France, the findings show that even though SAC are built on technology, talent and information capabilities, their overall impact on firm performance is mediated by the level of talent capability of service analytics managers. The findings also confirm the critical moderating impact of strategic alignment between dynamic talent capability and firm performance in the big data environment.     

The negative consequences of school bullying on academic performance and mitigation through female teacher participation: evidence from Ghana

Exploiting data from Ghanaian schools’ eighth grade students collected in 2011, we estimate the causal effects of school bullying on academic achievement and gender-based mitigating approaches by using propensity score matching (PSM) and doubly robust (DR) estimator approach. We find that students victimized by bullying score at least 0.22 standard deviation lower than their peers in a standardized mathematics examination. Meanwhile, we document that the effect of bullying is significantly attenuated in the presence of female teachers in the classroom. These results hold through a set of robustness checks including placebo regressions and matching quality test. We explain the results through gender difference in teaching paradigm and conclude that a feminine management approach in class is required to reduce the effect of bullying.     

The effects of domestic rice market interventions outside business-as-usual conditions for imported rice prices

The Philippine government intervenes in the domestic rice market through the imposition of import tariffs and the provision of producer and consumer subsidies. While policymakers are aware that these programmes come with allocative efficiency costs, they justify the programmes on the grounds that they insulate the domestic economy from unexpected price spikes in the international rice market. An interesting matter for policy evaluation is to quantify the insulation benefit that the programmes provide in circumstances of sudden severe import price spikes. To examine this question, we undertake a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulation in which the Philippines is subject to an external rice price shock. We find that the insulation benefit of the support programmes under a 2008-like event is worth approximately 0.10% of real consumption. However, the cost of insuring against these price spikes is significant. We estimate the annual cost of the rice market interventions at approximately 0.40% of real consumption.     

Addressing privacy predicaments in the digital marketplace: A power‐relations perspective

The utilization and governance of the internet and adjacent disruptive technologies have created numerous challenges to ensuring consumer online privacy. This study employs the power–responsibility equilibrium theory to explore emerging online privacy issues in the data‐driven marketplace. This exploratory study, based on semi‐structured interviews, explains why online shopping consumers are increasingly worried about their privacy and why they behave in a manner that could be detrimental to the consumer–vendor relationship. The findings suggest that deficiencies of corporate privacy responsibility and regulatory protection have deprived consumers of privacy empowerment. These deficiencies have also accentuated perceived privacy contract violations to trigger privacy concerns and subsequent defensive responses. We identify enhancement of consumer privacy empowerment and assuagement of privacy contract violations as two separate mechanisms of addressing online privacy issues. We also highlight the importance of addressing power and responsibility dynamics for maintaining a healthy information‐exchange environment.     

Impact of patient portal behavioral engagement on subsistence consumers' wellbeing

Subsistence consumers, representing almost half the global population, live on low incomes, possess low levels of literacy, and generally experience poor health. Technology is a tool used to facilitate stronger connections between consumers and support services, including for subsistence consumers. Given the unique characterization of subsistence marketplaces, research needs to examine potential associations between subsistence consumers' individual resource integration and wellbeing via their behavioral engagement with technologies. Research is also warranted that investigates the factors that can moderate this association. A 45-day customized patient portal app was delivered via 26 healthcare service providers, resulting in the surveying of 336 subsistence consumers who used the portal. The results indicate positive associations between subsistence consumers' individual resource integration, patient portal behavioral engagement, and wellbeing. They also indicate that these associations are strengthened by service provider's resource support and subjective norms, and weakened by medical mistrust. Theoretical and managerial implications from this study's findings are discussed.