Three Corrected Score Tests for Generalized Linear Models with Dispersion Covariates

We develop three corrected score tests for generalized linear models with dispersion covariates, thus generalizing the results of Cordeiro , Ferrari and Paula (1993) and Cribari-Neto and Ferrari (1995) . We present, in matrix notation, general formulae for the coefficients which define the corrected statistics. The formulae only require simple operations on matrices and can be used to obtain analytically closed-form corrections for score test statistics in a variety of special generalized linear models with dispersion covariates. They also have advantages for numerical purposes since our formulae are readily computable using a language supporting numerical linear algebra. Two examples, namely, iid sampling without covariates on the mean or dispersion parameter oand one-way classification models, are given. We also present some simulations where the three corrected tests perform better than the usual score test, the likelihood ratio test and its Bartlett corrected version. Finally, we present a numerical example for a data set discussed by Simonoff and Tsai (1994) .     

Fiscal stabilizations: When do they work and why

This paper studies the determinants and channels through which fiscal contractions influence the dynamics of the debt-to-GDP ratio and GDP growth. Using data from a panel of OECD countries, the paper shows that the success of fiscal adjustments in decreasing the debt-to-GDP ratio depends on the size of the fiscal contraction and less on its composition. The rate of growth of output matters too, but higher GDP growth does not drive the success of a fiscal stabilization. In contrast, whether a fiscal adjustment is expansionary depends largely on the composition of the fiscal maneuvre. In particular, stabilizations implemented by cutting public spending lead to higher GDP growth rates. The effects of the composition on growth work mostly through the labor market rather than through agents’ expectations of future fiscal policy. Finally, the evidence suggests that successful and expansionary fiscal contractions are not the result of accompanying expansionary monetary policy or exchange rate devaluations.     

Investigating the moderating effect of information sources on cruise tourist behaviour in a port of call

The aim of the study is to examine how destination knowledge acquired by cruisers through different information sources (online versus others) can moderate destination image formation and the relationship of image–satisfaction–behavioural intentions in a port of call. A multiple group analysis with partial least square method was carried out using data collected from a major tourism destination in Spain: Valencia. The findings revealed knowledge acquired through different information sources is a moderator of the image–satisfaction and satisfaction–behavioural intention relationships. The destination image formation is also significantly different from one group to the other. The findings of this study have a number of practical implications.     

Killing off cohorts: Forecasting mortality of non-extinct cohorts with the penalized composite link model

Mortality forecasting has crucial implications for insurance and pension policies. A large amount of literature has proposed models to forecast mortality using cross-sectional (period) data instead of longitudinal (cohort) data. As a consequence, decisions are generally based on period life tables and summary measures such as period life expectancy, which reflect hypothetical mortality rather than the mortality actually experienced by a cohort. This study introduces a novel method to forecast cohort mortality and the cohort life expectancy of non-extinct cohorts. The intent is to complete the mortality profile of cohorts born up to 1960. The proposed method is based on the penalized composite link model for ungrouping data. The performance of the method is investigated using cohort mortality data retrieved from the Human Mortality Database for England & Wales, Sweden, and Switzerland for male and female populations.     

Linking learning with governance in networks and clusters: key issues for analysis and policy

In this paper we analyse the relationship between governance and learning in clusters and networks. In particular, we see these two key elements as interdependent, suggesting that, under particular circumstances, such interdependence may drive clusters and networks towards a dynamic development trajectory. A pure ‘governance perspective’ makes the development of any locality dependent on the system of powers which exists within the locality or across the global value chain. In parallel, a pure ‘competence-based approach’ focuses mainly on the capabilities of actors to learn and undertake activities. In contrast, we open the prospects for an interdependent relation that may change the actual competences of actors as well as the governance settings and dynamics in networks and clusters. When supported by public policies, the learning process may have the potential to modify the governance environment. Simultaneously, the learning process is intrinsically influenced by economic power, which may seriously affect the development prospects of clusters and networks. This is why an intertwined consideration of both aspects is necessary to promote specific approaches to learning and to design appropriate policies. In this paper we offer two preliminary case studies to clarify some of these dynamics: the first taken from the computers cluster in Costa Rica and the second from an Italian bio-pharmaceutical firm and its production network. The first case study refers to the software cluster that was created from scratch in Costa Rica thanks to an enlightened government policy in coordination with new local enterprises and an important foreign direct investor; while the second reflects on the ability of an individual company to create a network of relationships with large transnational companies in order to acquire new competences without falling into a subordinate position with respect to its larger partners.     

Nature-based recreation associated with connectedness to nature and leisure satisfaction among students in Brazil

ABSTRACT

There is growing evidence that nature-based recreation (NBR) during childhood promotes connectedness to nature, which in turn fuels NBR during adulthood. In addition to providing a number of health benefits, NBR participation may enhance leisure satisfaction, an important predictor of happiness and life satisfaction. In this exploratory study, we tested these hypothesised links using a path model with a cross-sectional sample of 224 Brazilian college students, where NBR participation during childhood increases connectedness to nature and NBR participation during adulthood, which in turn promotes leisure satisfaction. The model fit the data well χ² (2) = 1.924, χ²/df = 0.962 (N = 220, p = .38), CFI = 1.00, AGFI = .978, GFI = .996, and RMSEA = .00, with results showing an indirect positive link between NBR during childhood and leisure satisfaction, and a direct link between NBR during adulthood and leisure satisfaction. The indirect effect of connectedness to nature on leisure satisfaction was also significant: NBR during childhood fostered connectedness to nature, which motivated NBR during adulthood and higher levels of leisure satisfaction. Leisure practitioners can improve people’s leisure satisfaction by promoting engagement in NBR activities across life stages and emphasising connection to nature.     

Kognitive Dissonanz »Revisited«

Using the theory of cognitive dissonance, this study investigates whether users of an online magazine prefer contents that agrees to their attitudes to political issues. In contrast to earlier studies, dissonance is defined issue-specifically rather than by party identification. Moreover, personal relevance is also included. In a two-step data collection, attitudes and relevance assessments were measured first. Participants were asked in a second session to look at an online magazine. Background software recorded the selection of and the time spent with specific contents as participants looked at the magazine. Results show that users spent more time with attitude-consistent information. This was, however, mostly due to persons who had rated issue relevance high. Users with low or moderate rating for issue relevance spent significantly less time with attitude-consistent content and significantly more time with attitude-inconsistent information, as compared with users with high relevance ratings. The influence of issue relevance is discussed as an explanation of contradictory results on cognitive dissonance and media use.     

The Governance of Networks and Economic Power: The Nature and Impact of Subcontracting Relationships

Abstract.  Current debate on networking focuses on network structures and firm strategies. In this perspective, theoretical analysis has been concerned with allocative issues. This essay proposes a different interpretation. Starting from the existing theoretical framework, we emphasise the nature and the implications of different types of networks with respect to socio‐economic development from a distributional point of view. Within this context, we develop the analysis of subcontracting starting from the concept of economic power. We then provide an analysis of governance in production by considering the attitudes and the nature of the actors involved. The externalisation of activities by large transnationals, which characterises current corporate restructuring, is often related to the search for greater flexibility, but also for greater power over governments, labour, and subcontractors. Differently, networks based on the mutual dependence of actors, which are not necessarily built around a large firm, could – under particular conditions – reach large production scales or more complex scopes without breaking the links with territorial systems, thus including local objectives in the strategic decision‐making process. Our conclusion is that the impact of subcontracting networks varies enormously. This is crucial to an understanding of future trends and possibilities. Not least, firms and public policy agencies need to understand the implications of different forms of subcontracting network and how those forms actually differ in practice.     

A Comparison of Consensus and BVAR Macroeconomic Forecasts

This paper provides a one-month-ahead, macroeconomic, Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) forecasting approach that offers several advantages over conventional short-term forecasting procedures. In particular, it produces more accurate forecasts than the Bloomberg consensus forecasts, on average, for 20 major macroeconomic variables. In addition to a quantitative comparison of BVAR and Bloomberg consensus forecast, the paper focuses on five important areas of macroeconomic forecasting: the role of short-term macroeconomic forecasting, the importance of a robust forecasting approach, the importance of timing of data releases, forecast evaluation criteria, and the importance of changing model specifications as conditions warrant.     

Financial Education Interventions Targeting Immigrants and Children of Immigrants: Results from a Randomized Control Trial

We document that immigrants in the United States differ from natives in several aspects relevant for their financial decision making. Based on these differences, we designed novel financial education materials targeted at US immigrants and their children and evaluated their effectiveness using a randomized control trial. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first rigorous evaluation of financial education programs targeted at this population. Compared to a control group, the groups that received the one‐time educational intervention were more likely to correctly answer financial knowledge questions immediately after the intervention. The estimated effects of this one‐time intervention on knowledge were large, but most of them faded away after six months. Moreover, we find little effect of the treatments on intended financial behavior measures, both immediately and six months later. Our results point to the efficacy of this type of educational material in informing immigrants and their children about important financial information that they are unfamiliar with, including information related to their immigrant status. However, they also suggest that a priority for future research should be to test whether repeated opportunities for learning can increase financial knowledge retention and lead to behavior change.