Trade and Tradability: Exports, Imports, and Factor Markets in the Salter-Swan Model

We extend the Salter-Swan model to include both factor markets and semi-traded goods. In our model, changes in relative factor prices depend on changes in world commodity prices, factor endowments, and the trade balance. In contrast, only changes in world commodity prices can affect factor prices in the neoclassical trade model. The inclusion of semi-traded goods weakens the magnification effect in both the Stolper-Samuelson and Rybczynski theorems. When imports and domestic goods are poor substitutes, a characteristic of some commodities in developing countries, the sign of the Stolper-Samuelson theorem is reversed.     

post-war economics' dead end (part 1)

In the first of two articles Sir Alfred Sherman, advisor to Conservative leaders in the 1970s and 1980s and a founder of the Centre for Policy Studies, claims that post-war economics has reached a dead-end.     

Capital needs in Eastern countries

This paper reviews estimated capital needs for Eastern Europe and rejects most of the claimed foreign capital contributions as too high and, in fact, unnecessary. It argues that whilst foreign investments may usefully assist reforms, they can neither substitute for reforms nor assure the success of reforms. Historically there is no evidence of sustained growth predominantly financed by foreign capital anywhere. The West's effort should therefore focus on assisting reform efforts, providing some capital but, above all, opening its markets to Eastern products.Opinions expressed in this paper are strictly personal. I would like to thank H. Handler for his comments.     

Job Creation and Job Destruction in a Regulated Labor Market: The Case of Austria

We study Austrian job reallocation in the period of 1978 to 1998, using a large administrative dataset where we correct for spurious entries and exits of firms. We find that on average 9 out of 100 randomly selected jobs were created within the last year, and that about 9 out of randomly selected 100 jobs were destroyed within the next year. Hence, the magnitude of Austrian job flows seems to be comparable to other countries, similar to the well-known results of Davis et al. (1996) for the United States. Job reallocation appears to be driven primarily by idiosyncratic shocks. However, job creation increases significantly during cyclical upswings whereas job destruction rises in downturns. We also find substantial persistence of job creation and destruction. The pronounced pattern of job reallocation rates falling with firm size and age continues to hold when we use a set of controls. Finally, we show that – controlling for sector and firm size composition – Austrian job reallocation rates are only half the rates for the U.S. This result is not surprising given the impact of tighter regulation and labor law in Austria.