Technological discontinuities, competition and firm performance

This article discuss in a tentative way what determines the effect of technological discontinuities on the competitive position. of companies within an industry. Three cases of technological change are anahzed: the change from manual to romputer numericalb controlled metal cutting machine tools, the change from stand-alone machine tools to flexible manufacturing systems; and the change from non-cellular to cellular mobile telephony It is argued that the character of technological discontinuity affects market shares, by altering the barriers to entry and mobility, and by being more or less in accordance with the different firms' vision about the future, implying variations in the time needed to detect and accept the new threat or opportunity. A technological discontinuity that includes a new threat or opportunig. A technological discontinuip that involues a new generic technology which substitutes for rather than adds to the previous technology base is seen as being most disruptive. The time actualb available for detecting the need to change and to act is limited by the market growth of the new product (the 'speed of diffusion between users). The faster the difficulties is, therefore diffusion is the greater are the possinbilities that early movers will fain intial advantages. Furthermore, the faster the diffusion is the greater are the possibilities that early movers will build sustanable, volume-related entry and mobility barries.     

Consequences matter, ‘risk’ is marginal

Critical comments by Palm and Slovic on a previous article of mine (L. Sjöberg, Consequences of perceived risk: demand for mitigation, Journal of Risk Research 2, 129–149) are discussed. Palm’s arguments are largely based on misreading of my article, and her own studies, which she described in detail, are largely irrelevant in the present discussion. Slovic’s arguments are met by pointing out that the many references he cites in favour of his standpoint are mostly quite misleading and irrelevant. Furthermore, I present two new studies where the riskiness of activities was investigated, as well as the risk of unwanted events caused by such activities. All results very clearly support the conclusion that seriousness of consequences is a more important determinant of demand for risk mitigation than risk or probability of unwanted events, or riskiness of activities that can lead to such events.     

The rise of risk: risk related bills submitted to the Swedish parliament in 1964-65 and 1993-95

Bills submitted to the Swedish parliament in 1964-65 and in 1993-95 were scored according to their major concern: risk, resource allocation or resource growth. It was found that risk related bills had increased strongly, from 11% to 28%, implying that currently almost a third of all bills in the Swedish parliament are related to risk issues. The absolute number of risk bills increased by a factor of four. Resource allocation bills, on the other hand, decreased strongly, and resource growth bills, a minority of bills, remained at a relatively low level. All parties except the Conservatives showed a strong trend towards increased risk concern, especially the Social Democrats. The most frequently encountered type of risks in the 60s were health related, while environmental risks predominated in the 90s. These changes are discussed in relation to the hypothesis that risks become more important during periods of slower economic growth. It is concluded that risk is currently a very important issue on the Swedish political agenda.