Reflections on the ontological status of risk

In this article we discuss the concept of risk in an ontological perspective. Risk per se is not a self-explaining concept that ‘exists’ by its own virtue. Our discussion is therefore based on existing methodologies and epistemological claims concerning risk. With these claims as our point of departure, we examine risk in relation to the concept of time, state of affairs (the state of the world) and events and discuss relations and constitutional issues for the risk concept. Drawing on a relation between time and state of affairs, we argue that risk is rooted in the transition from the future to the present. Risk is being constituted by the transition from a myriad of future possibilities into one present reality (one actual contingent world). This implies that risk is not ontologically something of the future, but rather something of the present. However, we argue that risk does not exist in any ontological sense. What actually exist are possible (future) states of affairs and these may or may not be interpreted to hold risk. An implication of this is that all risk claims are subjective.     

A review of recent developments and applications of partial equilibrium models of the forest sector

Recent history has seen an increase in the utilization of partial equilibrium based forest sector models to identify potential impacts of various policies or timber market shocks. These models are particularly useful in that they employ economic theory to capture the interaction of supply and demand in a framework where commodity prices are endogenous to the policy or shock simulated. We present recent developments and linkages between models and review applications of these models to forest policy questions over the previous decade. We conclude with a discussion of potential future directions for such research.     

Land-use changes, forest/soil conditions and carbon sequestration dynamics: A bio-economic model at watershed level in Nepal

A dynamic bio-economic model has been used at watershed level in Nepal to analyze the land-use changes, forest and soil conditions and their resultant impacts on carbon (C) sequestration. Planning horizon of the model extends over a period of 25 years. The objective function is maximization of the sum of discounted net income flows from agriculture, livestock and forestry productions; imputed value of leisure and labour hiring out activities subject to annual constraints on land, labour and capital availability along with the fulfilment of minimum cash and consumption requirements. The seven scenarios analyzed by the model are: business as usual (BAU), reduction in population growth rate from 2 to 1.5% p.a., increased prices of major crops by 10 and 20%, reduction in emigration of active labour force from the watershed from the current rate of 20–15 and 10%, and increase in discount rate from 5 to 10%. The results indicate that reduced labour emigration rates and increase in the prices of major crops lead to expansion of cultivated area and shift from one land use to the others. Land clearing becomes more severe with decline in labour emigration rate. Up to 10% increase in the prices of agricultural crops does not have noticeable effect on total land clearing. Increase in discount rate leads to less land clearing, more biomass harvesting and higher net C sequestration as compared to the BAU scenario. Assuming a C price of 10 USD per MgC and 5% discount rate, the net present value of C sequestration for the first 25 years is estimated at 1.83 mill USD in the BAU scenario, varying from 0.16 mill USD to 2.26 mill USD, as respectively the lowest and highest values for the seven scenarios analysed. A reduction in population growth and maintenance of current rate of off-farm employment are suggested for slowing down the expansion of cultivated land area, and thereby reducing the forest/soil degradation and C emissions. This in turn would enhance the income potential from C sequestration.     

The Gender Pay Gap by Occupation: A Test of the Crowding Hypothesis

Identified, structural wage equations for seven occupations are estimated to test the crowding hypothesis—that the gender pay gap is due to females being crowded into low-paying occupations—using data drawn from the 1996 wave of the National Longitudinal Study of Youth (NLSY79). Occupational preferences are used to estimate a logit probability model of occupational assignment to create instruments to control for self-selection. Wage equations are estimated for all workers and for full-time, year-round workers. Identical specifications are estimated for private-sector workers. The results are not consistent with a crowding explanation as the sole source of the gender pay gap unless crowding occurs at less aggregated levels of occupations than those used for this study. (JEL J16 , J31 , J71 )     

New class divisions in a modern working life?

This article questions the usefulness of a traditional class divide as a tool for understanding a contemporary working environment among manual and non‐manual workers in the oil service industry. The case of study is an enterprise within a supply chain with asymmetrical relationships between companies. Our findings show that the traditional manual/non‐manual class division is still relevant for understanding differences in perceived work situation in a modern work organisation. However, alongside a cleavage between manual and non‐manual workers, we find a cleavage between workers with differing amounts of contact with employees in organisations higher up in the supply chain.     

The supply of labor time for mature females

Conclusions Overall, the evidence indicates that women view their leisure time as a normal good. The responsiveness in supply to changes in asset income is small.For females with spouse present, their time is a gross complement with respect to their spouse's time if the spouse's labor supply curve has negative slope. Simultaneously, the spouses' times appear to be net substitutes.There is evidence in both survey years of a backward bending labor supply curve for females. While most females remain on that part of their supply curve which has positive slope, females, particularly those with no spouse present, seem to be moving toward the backward bending segment of that curve over time. It seems that both females with and without spouse present will be behaving more like their male counterparts over time.This study evolved from a Department of Labor grant (Contract No. J-9-E-7-0180) made to Copley International Corporation, La Jolla, California. I am grateful for the assistance provided by Steven Alan Eich in working with the massive data sets utilized for this study.     

Using Occupational Preference in Estimating Market Wage Discrimination: the Case of the Gender Pay Gap

ABSTRACT Past occupational preference is used to estimate the gender pay gap. The use of predetermined variables in a reduced-form wage equation avoids the bias caused by using variables that are correlated with the random error. Using a gender coefficient, the potential discriminatory gap is about 11.5 percent when past occupational preference is included. Decomposition yields an estimate of 10.5 percent when past occupational preference is included. In both cases, the discriminatory gap is close to that obtained when actual occupation is included. This suggests public policy directed toward reducing hiring discrimination by gender might be misdirected.