Public investment criteria under optimal nonlinear income taxation without commitment

In this study, we highlight that the incredibility of the government's commitment to a certain tax policy is a determinant of production inefficiency. We show that if the government cannot commit to a certain tax policy and if the types of taxpayers are completely separated, then the production efficiency theorem could be violated in an optimal solution. In this case, an incremental unit of public or private capital affects taxpayers' labor supply through wage rates. In a situation where public capital is more (less) complementary to labor than private capital, public investment tightens (relaxes) the incentive compatibility constraint more than private investment.     

Benchmarking therapists: furthering the benchmarking method in its application to clinical practice

Psychotherapy research has been interested in understanding the variability observed among therapists with regard to their treatment effectiveness. An important initial step towards understanding the source of the differences is to reliably identify therapists that are effective. The current paper thus proposes a method for benchmarking therapists against predetermined criteria of effectiveness which could be conducted using any standard statistical package. Basic steps include (a) creating benchmark(s), (b) determining a prior the numerical criteria that constitute as ??effective?? based on the benchmark(s), (c) calculating pre-post effect sizes as an indicator of effectiveness at the case level using statistical adjustments so as to best match clinical (and other) differences among cases, and (d) statistically benchmarking the therapists using a random-effects hierarchical linear modeling. An example is provided that highlights the number of therapists who would be classified as effective based on various numerical criteria and confidence levels.     

Discrete fixed point theorem reconsidered

The aim of this note is to indicate an example that demonstrates the incorrectness of Iimura’s discrete fixed point theorem [Iimura, T., 2003. A discrete fixed point theorem and its applications. Journal of Mathematical Economics 39, 725–742] and to present a corrected statement using the concept of integrally convex sets.     

Stable Shareholdings,the Decision Horizon Problem and Earnings Smoothing

Prior studies argue that stable shareholders do not encourage firm managers to manage their earnings to achieve short‐term earnings goals. They also state that firm managers with stable shareholders have an incentive to report smooth earnings to maintain long‐term relationships with such shareholders. We focus on cross‐shareholdings and stable shareholdings owned by financial institutions as stable shareholdings in Japan, and investigate the effect of these ownership structures on earnings management patterns. Specifically, we hypothesize that stable shareholdings are positively associated with the informational components of earnings smoothing. Consistent with our hypothesis, we first find that as stable shareholdings increase, managers are more likely to conduct earnings smoothing that provides useful information to stable shareholders. Further, our additional analysis shows that stable shareholdings reduce incentives for managers to cut discretionary expenditures to meet short‐term earnings benchmarks, implying that stable shareholdings could reduce the possibility of a myopic problem. These results suggest that managers with stable shareholdings tend to report smoother and less volatile earnings, and do not tend to pursue earnings management to attain short‐term earnings targets.     

Dominance of a Class of Stein type Estimators for Optimal Portfolio Weights When the Covariance Matrix is Unknown

For the estimation problem of mean-variance optimal portfolio weights, several previous studies have proposed applying Stein type estimators. However, few studies have addressed this problem analytically. Since the form of the loss function used in this problem is not of the quadratic type commonly used in statistical studies, there have been some difficulties in showing analytically the general dominance results. However, dominance results are given here of a class of Stein type estimators for the mean-variance optimal portfolio weights when the covariance matrix is unknown and is estimated. The class of estimators is broader than the one given in a previous study. The results we have obtained enable us to clarify conditions for some previously proposed estimators in finance to have smaller risks than the estimator which we obtain by plugging in the sample estimates.     

Effects of Price Regulations and Dark Pools on Financial Market Stability: An Investigation by Multiagent Simulations

We built an artificial market model and investigated the impact of large erroneous orders on financial market price formations. Comparing the case of consented large erroneous orders in the short term with that of continuous small erroneous orders in the long term, if amounts of orders are the same, we found that the orders induced almost the same price fall range. We also analysed effects of price variation limits for erroneous orders and found that price variation limits that employ a limitation term shorter than the time erroneous orders exist effectively prevent large price fluctuations. We also investigated effects of up-tick rules, adopting the trigger method that the Japan Financial Services Agency adopted in November 2013. We also investigated whether dark pools that never provide any order books stabilize markets or not using the model including one lit market, which provides all order books to investors, and one dark pool. We found that markets become more stable as the dark pool is increasingly used. We also found that using the dark pool more reduces the market impacts. However, if other investors’ usage rates of dark pools become too large, investors must use the dark pool more than other investors to avoid market impacts. When a tick size of a lit market is larger, dark pools are more useful to avoid market impacts. These results suggest that dark pools stabilize markets when the usage rate is under some threshold and negatively affect the market when the usage rate is over that threshold. Our simulation results suggest the threshold might be much larger than the usage rate in present real financial markets. This study is the first to discuss whether or not several concrete and actually adoptable regulations, including those that have never been employed (e.g. price variation limits with various parameters), could prevent large fluctuations of market prices, including those beyond our experience, using artificial market simulations, and to discuss quantitatively how spreading of dark pools beyond our experience could affect market price formations using the artificial market simulations. In short, this study is the first study to comprehensively discuss how regulations and financial systems beyond our experience could affect price formations using the artificial market simulations. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Economic Value of Water Quality Improvement by One Grade Level in Erhai Lake: A Willingness-to-Pay Survey and a Benefit-Transfer Study

Water quality in China has seriously deteriorated in recent years. However, very few valuation studies have been conducted to estimate the monetary values associated with water quality changes. As a result, the decision makers can hardly make rational choices with regard to investments in water quality improvement. This paper presents a valuation study conducted in Dali, Yunnan Province, which aims to estimate the total economic value of improving the water quality of Erhai Lake by one grade level. Both the contingent valuation method and the benefit transfer approach are employed in this study. The contingent valuation estimation strategy reveals that, on average, a household located in Dali is willing to pay about 27 yuan per month continuously for 5 years for the water quality improvement, equivalent to 1.7% of the household monthly income. The elasticity of willingness-to-pay with respect to income is estimated to be 0.28. The internal rate of economic return of the proposed pollution control project is estimated to be 13%. The benefit transfer exercise produces a similar estimation on willingness to pay (WTP) values, with a difference of less than 2% compared with the contingent valuation approach. The results indicate the potential reliability of using the benefit transfer approach for valuation estimations in Chinese provinces.     

Optimal human capital policies under the endogenous choice of educational types

This study examines optimal human capital policies under nonlinear labor and capital income taxes in the presence of consumption value of education in a two‐period setting. We show that when individuals can choose educational types differing by the relative importance of consumption value and production value, education subsidies for low‐type individuals should not equal an efficient level that offsets distortions induced by nonlinear taxes on labor and capital income. Our findings imply that education policy does not restore efficiency, or the Diamond–Mirrlees production efficiency theorem fails. Moreover, capital income taxation is optimal, which means that the Atkinson–Stiglitz theorem breaks down.     

Using Clinical Trials to Benchmark Effects Produced in Clinical Practice

This paper proposes an intuitive yet statistical advancement of the benchmarking method (e.g., Weersing and Weisz, 2002, Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 70: 299–310) that could facilitate the assessment of pre-post treatment effectiveness of psychotherapy and other interventions delivered in clinical settings against efficacy observed in clinical trials. Primary development was in the use of the “good-enough principle” (Serlin and Lapsley, 1985 American Psychologist 40: 73–13, 1993, In: G. Keren & C. Lewis (eds.), A handbook for Data Analysis in Behavioral Sciences: Methodological Issues. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associated, pp. 199–228), which allowed for setting a clinically relevant margin between the benchmarks and the effect sizes observed in clinical settings so as to avoid attaining statistical significance with clinically trivial differences. Examples are given using clinical trials benchmarks of adult depression treatment, followed by instructions and limitations for its use.