Socio-demographics,political attitudes and informal sector employment: A cross-country analysis

In this paper, we empirically investigate the relationship between informal sector employment and micro-level socio-demographic characteristics, political acts and attitudes, and individual norms. Using self-reported individual micro-level data from the World Values Survey for seven developing countries (China, Ecuador, Egypt, Mexico, Peru, South Africa and Yemen), our cross-country regressions and principal component analysis reveal that socio-demographic characteristics of individuals are strong predictors of their informal sector employment. Our estimations further document that individual preferences for an economically strong, interventionist and egalitarian state and confidence in state and political institutions are positively and significantly correlated with informal sector employment, whereas variables associated with confidence in free market institutions and support for competition are negatively and significantly correlated with informal sector employment. We also show that individuals who participate either actively or inactively in peaceful and lawful political processes are significantly less likely to work in the informal sector. Finally, we document that individual norms, such as religiosity and tax morale, are negatively correlated with informal sector employment. Throughout our analysis, instead of having to rely on ad-hoc informality categorizations of third parties, we base our measurement of informal sector employment directly on the self-evaluation of individuals, who have the best information on the degree of their informality.     

“问题富豪”如何凸现中国银行业信贷管理缺陷？

福布斯在中国内地的出名，更多是因其著名的“富豪榜”，但最近的内地富豪中有几位却遇到了不小的“麻烦”。今年在上海举办的《福布斯》论坛中诸多议题之一的中国银行业也备受关注，而这几位遇到不小“麻烦”的富豪给中国的银行业起到了什么警惕作用呢？“问题富豪”反映出中国银行业信贷管理缺陷有哪些？就此，国务院发展研究中心经济研究副所长巴曙松博士特撰此稿。     

Analysis of Visitor Decision Making System When Visiting Natural Recreation Sites by Multinomial Logit Model

Multinomial Logit Model has analyzed the relationship between the frequency of visits to recreation areas and the motivational factors affecting the visits. Kastro Environment Preserving Site that is located in the Black Sea coast of Marmara region in Turkey, has been chosen as the site for this study. Kastro bay is a natural park that is visited only for recreational visits. The study has been conducted on a photogenic study group due to the proximity factor of Kastro bay close to Istanbul. Kastro bay is a popular recreational park due to its characteristic advantages such as a 200 m wide and approximately 2.5 km long beach and with its high quality vegetation. The vegetation type includes ash tree, oak tree, black pine, sand lily etc. Kastro bay is also the site for the Mediterranean seals (Monachus-monachus) which are at the level of extinction. Approximately 50,000 visitors visit the region during the months of July and August. It has been concluded that there is high direct correlation between the frequency of visits and the motivational factors. It has been determined that the visits are mostly based on the sea and the ecological tourism.Jel: O13, Q20, Q26, Q51, Q56, Q57     

OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE AND FIRM EXIT ROUTES

ABSTRACT

Our study presents empirical evidence about the role of ownership structure for firm exit probability by explicitly differentiating between distinct exit routes (bankruptcy and forced liquidation, voluntary liquidation, mergers and acquisitions – M&A, and removal from the court register). Based on the population of Slovenian firms in the 2006–2012 period and using multinomial probit, our findings support the predictions of agency theory. Ownership concentration, share of the largest owner, and the difference in shares between two largest owners all decrease the likelihood of exit for all studied exit routes but M&A. The magnitude of their impact is largest for exits, in which owners play a decisive role, i.e. voluntary liquidation and removal. The link between the number of primary owners and exit likelihood is U-shaped with the lowest exit probability for firms with around two owners.     

基于战略意图的战略联盟绩效评价指标体系研究

目前理论界对于企业战略联盟绩效评价的研究,大多数都是使用单纯的财务绩效指标对联盟的绩效进行评价。本文提出,联盟的绩效评价首先应当从组成联盟的企业的各自角度出发。其次由于不同的战略联盟的战略意图相差迥异,应当从战略联盟建立的战略意图出发,来设计评价战略联盟绩效的指标体系。首先对战略联盟各种战略意图作了一个系统的分析,然后提出一套基于战略意图的联盟绩效的评价指标体系,并给出了一种定量评价方法。     

Asymmetric effects of industrial production,money supply and exchange rate changes on stock returns in Turkey

The aim of this article is twofold: First, it examines the asymmetric effects of industrial production, money supply and RER on stock returns in Turkey by using the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model over the periods of 1994:01–2017:05 and 2002:01–2017:05. Second, it tries to determine whether there is a change of these macroeconomic variables’ effects on stock returns after the 2001 financial crisis since after 2002 period represents a structural break from the past in terms of economic, political and macroeconomic policy approaches. The study finds that the effects of the changes in industrial production, money supply and RER on stock returns are asymmetric, and the asymmetries are larger after the 2002 subsample compared to the full sample period. The empirical results further suggest that tight monetary policies appear to retard the stock returns more than easy monetary policies that stimulate them.     

POSTERIOR‐PREDICTIVE EVIDENCE ON US INFLATION USING EXTENDED NEW KEYNESIAN PHILLIPS CURVE MODELS WITH NON‐FILTERED DATA

Changing time series properties of US inflation and economic activity, measured as marginal costs, are modeled within a set of extended New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) models. It is shown that mechanical removal or modeling of simple low‐frequency movements in the data may yield poor predictive results which depend on the model specification used. Basic NKPC models are extended to include structural time series models that describe typical time‐varying patterns in levels and volatilities. Forward‐ and backward‐looking expectation components for inflation are incorporated and their relative importance is evaluated. Survey data on expected inflation are introduced to strengthen the information in the likelihood. Use is made of simulation‐based Bayesian techniques for the empirical analysis. No credible evidence is found on endogeneity and long‐run stability between inflation and marginal costs. Backward‐looking inflation appears stronger than forward‐looking inflation. Levels and volatilities of inflation are estimated more precisely using rich NKPC models. The extended NKPC structures compare favorably with existing basic Bayesian vector autoregressive and stochastic volatility models in terms of fit and prediction. Tails of the complete predictive distributions indicate an increase in the probability of deflation in recent years. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The evolution of the monetary transmission channels in Turkey: evidence from a TVP-VAR model

This article investigates the evolution of the monetary transmission mechanisms in Turkey for the period from January 1986 to December 2016. To this aim, the impacts of monetary variables on the prices and economic activity are investigated with a time-varying vector autoregressive model based on. The evidences from the time-varying responses indicate that the adoption of inflation targeting policy has markedly affected the functioning of transmission channels. The results also suggest that local and global financial crises may magnify the impact of monetary policy shocks on the overall economy.     

Information Technology Tools in New Product Development: The Impact of Complementary Resources*,†

Emergent research has examined the antecedents to using information technology (IT) in the new product development (NPD) process and the impact of IT on NPD performance. Based on the resource‐based view (RBV) of the firm, this study hypothesizes that particular resources create IT capabilities that significantly enhance NPD outcomes. More specifically, this research extends previous work by investigating whether three complementary resources, namely an executive champion for IT, global engagement, and organizational innovativeness, influence IT capabilities (IT use frequency and IT replacement frequency), which in turn affect NPD outcomes (NPD task proficiency and NPD performance). To test the conceptual model, survey data were collected from 220 NPD and IT managers in a variety of large Japanese firms. The results show that an executive champion for IT and global engagement are predictors of both IT tool use and replacement frequency while organizational innovativeness contributes only to IT tool replacement frequency. The results also indicate that both IT tool use and replacement frequency have a positive effect on NPD task proficiency, which improves NPD performance. This research contributes to the literature by adding understanding of the role of IT in NPD at the firm level in four ways. First, it examines particular organizational complementary resources and their relationship to IT capabilities. Second, it examines the RBV and IT in the context of NPD, an important business process. Third, it measures IT usage in a more granular fashion (i.e., IT tool use frequency and IT replacement frequency) rather than simply IT usage as a dichotomy. Finally, through testing the proposed model with data collected from Japanese firms, this study provides empirical evidence from an Asian country to answer the call for more NPD research to be conducted in countries other than North American and Western European contexts. The findings of the study also provide implications for managers. Importantly, they indicate that an executive level champion for IT is a key influencer in facilitating IT usage and replacement, and likely can help generate awareness of and support for greater IT investments so the firm can create IT capabilities for effective NPD.     

Formal and real ownership structure of the Polish economy: state-owned versus state-controlled enterprises

This article analyses the difference between the state’s formal and real shares in the Polish economy. We identify two basic types of corporate control exercised by the state over enterprises through ownership (in the case of majority ownership) and non-ownership tools (in the case of minority ownership). Consequently, we distinguish between two types of state enterprises: state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and state-controlled enterprises (SCEs). In post-communist economies, SCEs mainly originate from so-called reluctant privatisation, in which the transfer of ownership rights takes place without the appropriate transfer of control rights. We discuss the tools of non-ownership control used by the state. Our estimates of the real share of state enterprises in the Polish economy (which include both SOEs and SCEs) show that it is almost two times higher than the formal share (only SOEs). The share of state enterprises is also highest in the group of Poland’s largest and most important firms. We conclude that the real importance of state enterprises in the Polish economy is much higher than might be expected if only the formal share of state ownership is taken into account.