Reactions to Shocks and Monetary Policy Regimes: Inflation Targeting Versus Flexible Currency Board in Sub‐Saharan Africa

The paper examines the monetary policy actions through which central banks in sub‐Saharan Africa have tried to eliminate the negative impacts of the shocks facing their economies. We compare two different monetary policy regimes: a currency board regime (in the CFA zone) and an inflation targeting policy regime (Ghana and South Africa) when central banks respond to demand, supply, and fiscal shocks. We extend the usual forecasting and policy analysis system models to replicate the economic features of these economies during the period 2002–12 and to evaluate the impact of several policies in response to these shocks. We find that both policies are inappropriate in helping the economies escape from the effects of negative demand shocks, both are essential when negative shocks to primary balance occur, while inflation targeting dominates the currency board regime as a strategy to cope with positive shocks to inflation.     

From duty to right: The role of public education in the transition to aging societies

This paper argues that the introduction of compulsory schooling in early industrialization promoted the growth process that eventually led to a vicious cycle of population aging and negative pressure on education policy. In the early phases of industrialization, public education was undesirable for the young poor who relied on child labor. Compulsory schooling therefore discouraged childbirth, while the accompanying industrialization stimulated their demand for education. The subsequent rise in the share of the old population, however, limited government resources for education, placing heavier financial burdens on the young. This induced further fertility decline and population aging, and the resulting cycle may have delayed the growth of advanced economies in the last few decades.     

West African Single Currency and Competitiveness

This paper compares different nominal anchors to promote internal and external competitiveness in the case of a fixed exchange rate regime for the future single regional currency of the Economic Community of the West African States (ECOWAS). We use counterfactual analyses and estimate a model of dependent economy for small commodity exporting countries. We consider four foreign anchor currencies: the US dollar, the euro, the yen and the yuan. Our simulations show little support for a dominant peg in the ECOWAS area if they pursue several goals: maximizing the export revenues, minimizing their variability, stabilizing them and minimizing the real exchange rate misalignments from the fundamental value.     

Endogenous trade policy: Political struggle in the growth process

This paper develops a dynamic theory that accounts for the evolution of trade policy, underlying internal class conflicts, and output growth performance. Analysis of political responses to the distributional effects of international trade reveals that economies with a comparative advantage in manufacturing may reach a developed stage through the ebb and flow of protectionism. This nonmonotonic evolution of trade policy is consistent with the historical experience of Western Europe over the last few centuries.     

Why did farmers stop cultivating NERICA upland rice varieties in central Benin?

New Rice for Africa (NERICA) was developed by the Africa Rice Center by crossing high-yielding Asian rice (Oryza sativa L.) with locally adapted African rice (Oryza glaberrima Steud.). Community-based seed production of NERICA varieties was introduced in a village in central Benin in 2006 through seed dissemination projects. It was reported that high-adoption rates of these varieties were mainly due to high demand by development projects for seed dissemination, and to incentives (i.e. selling the rice seed at a higher than local market price to a local extension service) for farmers to grow NERICA varieties. A follow-up survey was undertaken after the seed dissemination projects ended to examine the change in the cultivation of NERICA varieties. About half of the farmers had ceased cultivation of NERICA varieties in 2011. The reasons for abandonment were the combined effects of reduced seed demand and low yields, which were attributed to a lack of access to credit and training on NERICA cultivation practices. The majority of the farmers did not abandon rice cultivation, but grew other high-yielding varieties, including one aromatic variety for which there was market demand. We conclude that to avoid immediate reductions in the adoption of new varieties after projects are terminated and to enhance agricultural sustainability, the varieties should be introduced in conjunction with appropriate group training on their cultivation, and the project should target farmers who do not have off-farm businesses. Furthermore, access to credit should also be enhanced, and the marketability of the varieties should be assessed.     

Trade,the Staple Theory of Growth,and Fluctuations in Colonial Singapore, 1900–39

Our paper enquires into the nexus between trade, growth, and fluctuations in the British colony of Singapore during the early twentieth century. Hitherto, little quantitative economic history has been written on this great entrepôt of Southeast Asia due to a lack of data. We overcome this limitation by utilising the gross domestic product series recently constructed for the pre‐war period by Sugimoto. This comprehensive data set enables us to explore the relevance and applicability of the staple theory of export‐led growth to colonial Singapore through cliometric analyses. The results suggest that foreign trade had acted both as an engine of growth and a source of economic instability.     

One money to two monies? Monetary policy in the CFA franc zone, 1968-1993

This paper investigates the monetary policy implications ofthe CFA franc zone from the viewpoint of the stability of moneydemand during the period prior to the 50% devaluation of 1994and the imposition of restrictions on the convertibility ofthe two constituent currencies in 1993. By estimating the staticand dynamic money demand functions, money demand was found tobe structurally more stable for the CFA franc zone as a wholethan either for any of the constituent currency unions or, asexpected, for any of the individual countries. This means that,prior to 1994, the CFA franc zone could be considered as a singlemonetary area despite the existence of two currency unions.     

CLAIMING SPACE,LAND AND ECOLOGY: Mapping Geographies of Indigenous and Decolonial Urbanisms in Taipei

The city is often understood as the antithesis of Indigeneity. In Taiwan, a settler colony where the Han Chinese have colonized Austronesian Indigenous peoples, dominant understandings and representations situate Indigenous vibrancy outside large cities such as Taipei and Kaohsiung, despite the large-scale urbanization of Indigenous peoples over the past several decades. This essay is based on long-term ethnographic research in Taipei and explores how urbanized Indigenous people in the Taiwanese metropolis persist in claiming the city's space, land and ecology despite both cartographic and physical displacements of their presence. It maps out emerging Indigenous and decolonial urbanisms in Taiwan, discussing the work of Indigenous artists and the spatial and ecological practices of urban Indigenous community residents.