Monetary union and the Maastricht inflation criterion: The accession countries*

We model an accession country facing a Maastricht‐type inflation criterion that specifies an inflation ceiling. In addition to deciding whether or not to satisfy this criterion, the country must decide how much costly economic reform to undertake. If the country puts enough weight on the future that it can credibly meet the inflation criterion no matter what the ceiling is, then the inflation criterion benefits the country but lowers reform. If the country puts less weight on the future, then a criterion with a properly chosen inflation ceiling can increase reform. We derive the inflation ceilings that maximize the country's welfare and its reform.     

Time to learn? The organizational structure of schools and student achievement

Utilizing parametric and nonparametric techniques, we asses the impact of a heretofore relatively unexplored ‘input’ in the educational process, time allocation, on the distribution of academic achievement. Our results indicate that school year length and the number and average duration of classes affect student achievement. However, the effects are not homogeneous – in terms of both direction and magnitude – across the distribution. We find that test scores in the upper tail of the distribution benefit from a shorter school year, while a longer school year increases test scores in the lower tail. Furthermore, test scores in the lower quantiles increase when students have at least eight classes lasting 46–50 min on average, while test scores in the upper quantiles increase when students have seven classes lasting 45 min or less or 51 min or more.     

WHO BENEFITS FROM JOB CORPS? A DISTRIBUTIONAL ANALYSIS OF AN ACTIVE LABOR MARKET PROGRAM

Using recently developed econometric techniques to estimate quantile treatment effects (QTE) and experimental data, we examine the impact of Job Corps on earnings distribution. Our results indicate a great deal of heterogeneity in the effects of Job Corps. The QTEs show an increasing pattern along the earnings distribution, with much more pronounced differences at the upper quantiles for males, whites, and ages 20–24. Moreover, we find the QTEs to be very small at quantiles below the median for males, ages 16–17 and 18–19, and non‐resident students. We propose strong economic conditions and skill hypotheses to explain the heterogeneity observed over the earnings distribution. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How to measure competition in an economy in transition

This paper attempts to find a robust method of measuring competition when firms' operational activities are subject to frictions. The first part theoretically tests the indicative quality of two competition measures, the price‐cost margin (PCM) and the profit elasticity, in a model of monopolistic competition. The second part studies the empirical performance of the indices for a panel of Ukrainian manufacturing firms. This study offers a new approach to measuring profit elasticity that relies on structural estimation of a production function. The estimation methodology retrieves a productivity index that is adjusted to imperfect competition. The proposed method of measuring profit elasticity is found to be robust to frictions, but the PCM and traditional profit elasticity are biased, especially when the intensity of competition is low. Empirical findings show that competition exhibits a significantly positive correlation with aggregate productivity performance, while its impact on firm productivity is nonlinear.     

Perceived justice and post-recovery satisfaction in banking service failures: Do commitment types matter?

Based on the notion that the types of customer commitment to a service provider may have diverse reasons and effects on the customer’s perceptions, attitudes, and behaviors, this study aims to investigate the different buffering effects of calculative and affective commitments on the perceived justice and post-recovery satisfaction (PRS) relationship. Multiple and hierarchical regression analyses were conducted based on survey data collected from 284 households who experienced service failure in the banking sector. Results revealed that while affective commitment moderates the effects of procedural and interactional justice, calculative commitment increases the impact of distributive and procedural justice on PRS.     

Selecting container port via a fuzzy ANP-based approach: A case study in the Marmara Region,Turkey

In this case study, a real world problem of a production firm in the Marmara Region, Turkey was considered. In the current situation, the firm works with different third-party logistics firms and uses different ports each time. However, they have some quality problems and decided to work with a logistics firm by using the most convenient port alternative. A number of conflicting qualitative and quantitative criteria exist for evaluating alternative ports. Qualitative criteria are often accompanied by ambiguities and vagueness. To cope with this problem, the fuzzy analytic network process (FANP) method is used in this study. First, we defined the region specific criteria consisting of the twenty sub-criteria under the six main criteria clusters that influence the selection of container port. Then seven alternative container ports located in the Marmara Sea were determined. The results showed that the most convenient district for the container port is Istanbul District, which is one of the biggest economical centers in Eastern Europe.     

Liquidity risk and arbitrage pricing theory

Classical theories of financial markets assume an infinitely liquid market and that all traders act as price takers. This theory is a good approximation for highly liquid stocks, although even there it does not apply well for large traders or for modelling transaction costs. We extend the classical approach by formulating a new model that takes into account illiquidities. Our approach hypothesizes a stochastic supply curve for a securitys price as a function of trade size. This leads to a new definition of a self-financing trading strategy, additional restrictions on hedging strategies, and some interesting mathematical issues.Received: 1 November 2003, Mathematics Subject Classification: 60G44, 60H05, 90A09JEL Classification: G11, G12, G13Umut Çetin: This work was performed while Dr. Çetin was at the Center for Applied Mathematics, Cornell UniversityPhilip Protter: Supported in part by NSF grant DMS-0202958 and NSA grant MDA-904-03-1-0092 The authors wish to thank M. Warachka and Kiseop Lee for helpful comments, as well as the anonymous referee and Associate Editor for numerous helpful suggestions, which have made this a much improved paper.     

MODELING LIQUIDITY EFFECTS IN DISCRETE TIME

We study optimal portfolio choices for an agent with the aim of maximizing utility from terminal wealth within a market with liquidity costs. Under some mild conditions, we show the existence of optimal portfolios and that the marginal utility of the optimal terminal wealth serves as a change of measure to turn the marginal price process of the optimal strategy into a martingale. Finally, we illustrate our results numerically in a Cox–Ross–Rubinstein binomial model with liquidity costs and find the reservation ask prices for simple European put options.     

On the persistence of income shocks over the life cycle: Evidence,theory, and implications

How does the persistence of earnings change over the life cycle? Do workers at different ages face the same variance of idiosyncratic earnings shocks? This paper proposes a novel specification for residual earnings that allows for an age profile in the persistence and variance of labor income shocks. We show that the statistical model is identified, and we estimate it using Panel Study of Income Dynamics data. We find that shocks to earnings are only moderately persistent (around 0.75) for young workers. Persistence rises with age, up to unity, until midway through life. The variance of persistent shocks exhibits a U-shaped profile over the life cycle (with a minimum of 0.01 and a maximum of 0.05). These results suggest that the standard specification in the literature (with age-invariant persistence and variance) cannot capture the earnings dynamics of young workers. We also argue that a calibrated job turnover model can account for these nonflat profiles. The key idea is that workers sort into better jobs and settle down as they age; in turn, magnitudes of wage growth rates decline, thereby decreasing the variance of shocks. Furthermore, the decline in job mobility results in higher persistence. Finally, we investigate the implications of age profiles for consumption–savings behavior. The welfare cost of idiosyncratic risk implied by the age-dependent income process is up to 1.6 percent of lifetime consumption lower compared with its age-invariant counterpart. This difference is mostly due to a higher degree of consumption insurance for young workers, for whom persistence is moderate. These results suggest that age profiles of persistence and variances should be taken into account when calibrating life-cycle models.     

Participatory planning of industrial R&D activities

This paper summarizes and comments on the methodology actually employed in participatory planning of R&D activities for the iron and steel industry in Turkey. Through an organized collaboration with more than a hundred managers, engineers, experts, and planners: (1) technical, managerial, financial, and social problems that are obstacles to the achievement of predetermined goals for the industry are identified and defined; (2) these problems are formulated as R&D candidate projects; and (3) a set of R&D candidate projects are selected for implementation in the 1980s.