Do rice prices follow a random walk? Evidence from Markov switching unit root tests for Asian markets

This study revisits the issue of mean reversion in the import rice prices of six Asian countries over the period between 1995 and 2015. Augmented Dickey Fuller tests with a conventional linear regression model support the presence of a unit root in the levels of the price data. However, when regressions allow for Markov switching in coefficients and variances to capture periodic shifts in levels and volatilities, there is strong evidence against the unit‐root null hypothesis in favor of stationarity over much of the observation period.     

Perceived insecurity in the public space: personal,social and environmental variables

Perceived insecurity in the public space: Personal, social and environmental variables. This paper explores perception of insecurity among the users of Barcelona’s public space. It describes the results of a research aimed to determine the key variables for the understanding of subjective insecurity. Structural equation models have been applied for this purpose. Results show low relative indices of causality for environmental variables, whereas those related to space representation, residential satisfaction and urban identity, social support and personal competences offer high predictive potential. It is concluded that insecurity perceptions in the public space are therefore strongly linked to social interaction processes and to the social construction of insecurity. Other results, like the influence of gender or age, are consistent with previous findings.     

Price transmission and volatility spillovers in Asian rice markets: Evidence from MGARCH and panel GARCH models

ABSTRACT

This article examines world rice price transmission and volatility spillovers across six major Asian rice markets over the period 2005-13. In addition to the conventional GARCH models, we use a panel GARCH framework to estimate the spillover effects along with the consideration of heterogeneity and interdependence among countries. Empirical results suggest that changes in the world rice price affected not only the price levels of domestic rice markets but also their conditional variances. Moreover, interdependence across rice markets contributed to a strong spillover of a price shock in one country to another within the region.     

Quantifying the Impact of Immigration on the Spanish Welfare State

The Spanish population will experience significant aging in coming years. This demographic change will impose a heavy burden on the national budget. In particular, expenditure on pensions and health are expected to rise significantly. The inflow of immigrants could help to alleviate the fiscal burden that future generations will have to bear. In this paper we try to quantify the impact of immigration on the Spanish Welfare State, using the methodology of Generational Accounting. Our results suggest that the impact of immigration will be positive and significant.     

A Study of the Symbolic Aspects of Space Using Nonquantitative Techniques of Analysis

This article has two aims: first, to define and analyse the theoretical implications of the concepts of social urban identity and symbolic urban space (Valera, 1993, 1996, 1997; Valera and Pol, 1994) from within the integrated perspective provided by Environmental Psychology and Social Psychology; and second, to present an empirical study of these concepts based on nonquantitative data collection and analysis. Texts recorded in discussion groups were studied using Contextual Content Analysis (McTavish and Pirro, 1990) to determine the social identity of the inhabitants of a neighbourhood within the city of Barcelona and the meaning given to those spaces which they consider to be symbolic or representative of the neighbourhood. Finally, the results, as well as the advantages of this type of analysis, which are rarely used in Environmental Psychology, are discussed.     

Stock market uncertainty and interest rate behaviour: a panel GARCH approach

Using a dynamic panel GARCH model for Asian countries, we find that interest rates are significantly lower when stock market uncertainty is high. Evidence of a positive relationship between stock market uncertainty and interest rate volatility is also provided.     

Is inflation targeting credible in Asia? A panel GARCH approach

We examine the relationship between inflation targeting and the behavior of the level and volatility of inflation for eight Asian countries over the period 1987–2013. In contrast to existing studies that rely upon time series methods, we employ a novel panel GARCH model that accounts for heterogeneity and interdependence across countries. Our main contribution is to shed new light on the inflation targeting credibility hypothesis based on lower inflation and inflation volatility as well as on the correlation between unanticipated inflation shocks within a panel GARCH framework. We find strong evidence of a reduction in the level of inflation that operates from the impact of actual inflation targets in the Philippines, South Korea and Thailand. We also find that the adoption of inflation targeting helped lower inflation volatility in the Philippines and South Korea. Overall, the results suggest that Asian inflation targeting regimes are more credible in terms of reducing the level of inflation than lowering inflation volatility. There is also evidence that the covariance of inflation shocks among inflation targeting and non-targeting countries tends to increase.     

How convergent are rice export prices in the international market?

This study revisits the issue of long-term price convergence of rice export prices for India, Pakistan, Thailand, Uruguay, the United States, and Vietnam using a two-stage pairwise unit root testing approach. To deduce evidence or lack of proof of convergence in price series, we also examine convergence using sigma and beta convergence specified in both unconditional and conditional frameworks. The methodology used is driven by the need to address three key concerns: (i) the likelihood of finding stationary price differentials, (ii) the magnitude of these differentials, and (iii) their speed of adjustment. To evaluate these concerns, we use monthly data for 18 price series drawn from these six countries from September 2011 to February 2021. The evidence points to a lack of international convergence. This gives rise to the possibility that a shield from a general downward export price trend is already in place for some exporters. Furthermore, we find that the likelihood of convergence is greater between pairs of price series that are characterized as high quality or having the same country of origin or having similar market share. Evidence also suggests that a converged pairing is more likely to have a smaller price differential if both price series are for low-quality rice.