Another view on optimal design for estimating the point of extremum in quadratic regression

In this paper we illustrate how certain design problems can be simplified by reparametrization of the response function. This alternative viewpoint provides further insights than the more traditional approaches, like minimax, Bayesian or sequential techniques. It will also improve a practitioner’s understanding of more general situations and their “classical” treatment.     

Component efficient solutions in line-graph games with applications

Recently, applications of cooperative game theory to economic allocation problems have gained popularity. We investigate a class of cooperative games that generalizes some economic applications with a similar structure. These are the so-called line-graph games being cooperative TU-games in which the players are linearly ordered. Examples of situations that can be modeled like this are sequencing situations and water distribution problems. We define four properties with respect to deleting edges that each selects a unique component efficient solution on the class of line-graph games. We interpret these solutions and properties in terms of dividend distributions, and apply them to economic situations. This research has been done while the third author was visiting Tinbergen Institute at the Free University, Amsterdam. The research is part of the Research Programme “Strategic and Cooperative Decision Making” at the Department of Econometrics. Financial support from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) in the framework of the Russian-Dutch programme for scientific cooperation, is gratefully acknowledged. The third author also appreciates partial financial support from the Russian Leading Scientific Schools Fund (grant 80.2003.6) and Russian Humanitarian Scientific Fund (grant 02-02-00189a). We thank three anonymous referees for their valuable comments.     

Hotel Attributes and Consumer Satisfaction: A Cross-Country and Cross-Hotel Study

The main purpose of this study was to identify the influence of the consumer’s country of residence on hotel service attributes’ contribution to consumer satisfaction. The hospitality services of Disneyland Paris in Paris, France, were analyzed in the context of the study. Data came from their seven hotels and comprised 47,885 valid questionnaires. The Tetraclasse model was applied to identify hotel attributes’ contribution to satisfaction and compare them for consumer segments from eight European countries and between hotels. Results showed that the four service attributes’ contributions are influenced by country of residence and vary between hotels.     

Monopolistic competition and income dispersion

We develop a model of monopolistic competition that accounts for consumers’ heterogeneity in both incomes and preferences. This model makes it possible to study the implications of income redistribution on the toughness of competition. We show how the market outcome depends on the joint distribution of consumers’ tastes and incomes and obtain a closed-form solution for a symmetric equilibrium. Competition toughness is measured by the weighted average elasticity of substitution. Income redistribution generically affects the market outcome, even when incomes are redistributed across consumers with different tastes in a way such that the overall income distribution remains the same.     

Analyzing social policy alternatives through modeling and forecasting of the consumption,composition, and incomes of the population

The article continues researches started under the guidance and with active participation of E.Yu. Faerman, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), within the framework of the RAS Central Economics and Mathematics Institute Population, Incomes, and Consumption system, aimed at modeling and forecasting the population composition, incomes, and consumption using a number of methods (including the multilevel complex structuring of the population and its incomes and consumption, modeling and forecasting shadow employment and incomes, and so on) and a complex statistical database. Comparative analysis of the results of four variants of inertial forecasts of socioeconomic indicators of different levels (the population as a whole, its functional layers, and their social and socioeconomic constituent groups) has been performed, including official and unofficial incomes and shadow employment; scenarios of social policy have been studied, including the income policy, labor compensation problems, and the social transfer policy; and economic consequences of the income legalization scenario have been evaluated.     

The wheels of a command economy: allocating Soviet vehicles

Using original archival sources, this article traces the allocation of vehicles by the Soviet economy and shows the complicated reality of the system’s operation. ‘Planned’ distribution was anything but orderly as decrees overturned quarterly plans, wholesalers ignored planning instructions by keeping vehicles for themselves or redirecting them to others, and the producer intervened through its control of the planning ‘aftermarket’. Existing stocks of vehicles were redistributed by administrative mobilizations that were resisted and thwarted by those losing vehicles. Behind the scenes, ‘grey’ markets reallocated used vehicles.     

Multi-population mortality models: fitting,forecasting and comparisons

We review a number of multi-population mortality models: variations of the Li & Lee model, and the common-age-effect (CAE) model of Kleinow. Model parameters are estimated using maximum likelihood. Although this introduces some challenging identifiability problems and complicates the estimation process it allows a fair comparison of the different models. We propose to solve these identifiability problems by applying two-dimensional constraints over the parameters. Using data from six countries, we compare and rank, both visually and numerically, the models’ fitting qualities and develop forecasting models that produce non-diverging, joint mortality rate scenarios. It is found that the CAE model fits best. But we also find that the Li and Lee model potentially suffers from robustness problems when calibrated using maximum likelihood.     

Analysis of the social policy parameters by forecasting indicators of social sector financing

The paper continues the publication started in our journal (2007, no. 1) of the forecasts made in the integrated system “Population, Incomes, Consumption” developed by the Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The forecasts cover indicators of social sector financing at different level: macro-level, by population groups, and by family type. The paper shows that expansion of the statistical base and its updating after the population census in 2002 have lead toserious changes in the forecast of the major social policy parameters. Their detailed analysis and conclusions are presented.     

Optimal savings with taxable and tax-deferred accounts

We solve and estimate a life-cycle model with earnings risk and liquidity constraints in the presence of tax-deferred retirement accounts (TDAs). We explicitly consider two very different types of households (with TDAs): direct and indirect stockholders. The latter hold stocks only through TDAs and, consistent with the data, save considerably less than the former, who hold stocks both inside and outside these accounts. We find that TDAs promote higher wealth accumulation but only marginally higher net savings. Consumption increases mostly during retirement, as desired, but the effect is largest for those households with higher savings rates already.     

Forecasts for providing the Russian population with domestic meat and dairy products until 2030

Scenario forecasts for cattle breeding development in Russia until 2030 are discussed. On the basis of these, the time periods of providing the population with the domestic meat and dairy products according to different consumption standards are examined. The requirements on implementing scenarios for provision of resources are defined considering the expected dynamics of the technological process in the agro-food sector.