Give Macroeconomic Stability and Growth in Russia a Chance

This paper identifies and investigates conceptual and empirical links among Russia's disappointing growth performance of the mid-1990s, its costly and eventually unsuccessful stabilization, the macroeconomic meltdown of 1998 and the spectacular rise of non-payments. Non-payments developed into a system that flourished in an atmosphere of fundamental inconsistency between a macroeconomic policy geared at sharp disinflation and a microeconomic policy of bailing-out enterprises through soft budget constraints. It embodies a large volume of untargeted, implicit subsidies in the order of 7–10 per cent of GDP, which has stifled growth, contributed to the 1998 meltdown through its impact on public debt and made at best a questionable contribution to equity. The overwhelming priority at this point is to dismantle this system, thereby promoting enterprise restructuring and growth (by hardening budget constraints) and medium-term macroeconomic stability (by reducing the size of the subsidies).     

A review of bank performance during transition in central Europe

This study, based on panel data from 189 industrial enterprises in 1992‐96, shows that privatisation 'on average' produces little improvement in performance of Russian enterprises. However, disaggregating the process, we reveal that methods of privatisation do influence performance but the impact is not always positive. The state seems to be a passive shareholder. At the same time, our results suggest that majority state ownership is preferable to a state minority stockholding, possibly because the absence of a monitoring shareholder in the latter case does not permit managers to achieve their own objectives at the expense of other shareholders.     

Estimation of the Natural Unemployment Rate in the Russian Federation, 1994–2004

To specify the problem of unemployment in Russia, we estimate the natural rate of unemployment by consecutively estimating the optimal size of the labour force and the optimal employment. For estimation of the optimal values we used a modified Hodrick–Prescott filter technique. The results show that the natural rate of unemployment in Russia during 1994–97 was stable around 13–13.5% and decreased to 7.1% by mid-2004. Moreover, before 1998 the actual unemployment was significantly lower than the natural rate and today practically equals it.     

Options and efficiency in spaces of bounded claims

In a seminal contribution, Ross (1976) showed that a static finite state-space market can be completed by supplementing the primitive securities with ordinary call and put options. Galvani (2009) extends this result to norm separable _Lp$L_p$-spaces, with 1≤p<∞$1\le p<\infty$. This study concludes that options maintain the same spanning power in the space of bounded payoffs topologized by the duality with the space of the state price densities. In particular, under mild assumptions on the probability space, options written on a claim that is a.s. equal to an injective function complete the market.     

Life Expectancy in 2040: What Do Clinical Experts Expect?

We use expert clinical and public health opinion to estimate likely changes in the prevention and treatment of important disease conditions and how they will affect future life expectancy. Focus groups were held including clinical and public health faculty with expertise in the six leading causes of death in the United States. Mortality rates and life tables for 2040 were derived by sex and age. Life expectancy at age 20 and 65 was compared to figures published by the Social Security Administration and to estimates from the Lee-Carter method. There was agreement among all three approaches that life expectancy at age 20 will increase by approximately one year per decade for females and males between now and 2040. According to the clinical experts, 70% of the improvement in life expectancy will occur in cardiovascular disease and cancer, while in the last 30 years most of the improvement has occurred in cardiovascular disease. Expert opinion suggests that most of the increase in life expectancy will be attributable to the already achieved reduction in smoking rates, especially for women.