THE ROLE OF LABOR AND MARRIAGE MARKETS,PREFERENCE HETEROGENEITY,AND THE WELFARE SYSTEM IN THE LIFE CYCLE DECISIONS OF BLACK,HISPANIC, AND WHITE WOMEN*

Using data from the NLSY79, we structurally estimate a dynamic model of the life cycle decisions of young women. The women make sequential joint decisions about school attendance, work, marriage, fertility, and welfare participation. We use the model to perform counterfactual simulations designed to shed light on three questions: (1) How much of observed minority–majority differences in behavior can be attributed to differences in labor market opportunities, marriage market opportunities, and preference heterogeneity? (2) How does the welfare system interact with these factors to augment those differences? (3) How can new cohorts that grow up under the new welfare system (Temporary Aid for Needy Families) be expected to behave compared to older cohorts?     

ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF GLOBALIZATION: THE IMPACT OF ENTRY TO THE WTO ON CHINA'S GROWTH

A panel data method is used to evaluate the impact of China's accession to the WTO. Time‐series data for China, Australia, Austria, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the UK, Hong Kong, Singapore, Korea, Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the USA and Taiwan are used to construct the growth path that what would have been followed had there been no entry by China to the WTO. We find that from 2002 to 2007, accession to the WTO raised China's real economic growth rate by 2.4%, its export growth rate by 13.2% and its import growth rate by 18.89% a year.     

EXPLORING THE USEFULNESS OF A NONRANDOM HOLDOUT SAMPLE FOR MODEL VALIDATION: WELFARE EFFECTS ON FEMALE BEHAVIOR*

A particularly challenging use of decision‐theoretic models in economics is to forecast the impact of large changes in the environment. The problem we explore in this article is how to gain confidence in a model's ability to predict the impact of such large changes. We show that an approach to validation and model selection that includes the choice of a “nonrandom holdout sample,” a sample that differs significantly from the estimation sample along the policy dimension that the model is meant to forecast, can be fruitful.     

Governmental interventions and household behavior in a developing country: Anticipating the unanticipated consequences of social programs

Estimates of the joint effects of governmental health, education and family planning programs as well as sources of water on fertility, child mortality and schooling are obtained from combined district-level and household-level data from rural India. The estimates are used both to test the implications of a model of household decision-making and to assess the effectiveness of the joint, public provision of such services in shifting resources from increasing family size to augmenting human capital per person. The results appear consistent with household optimizing behavior and suggest that reductions in the costs of medical services, contraceptives and schooling and the improvement of water sources are mutually reinforcing alternatives for implementing the joint policy goals of reduced population growth and increased human capital formation.     

Short-run fluctuations in fertility and mortality in pre-industrial Sweden

This paper describes and interprets annual Swedish data from 1750 to 1869 on weather, harvests, real wages, birth rates, and death rates using vector autogression. Impulses due to unexplained increases in wealth, whether this occurred through increased real wages, improved agricultural yields, or warmer winters, led in the short run to increased fertility and decreased infant and non-infant mortality, and hence to increased rates of population growth. Unexplained or unanticipated fluctuations in infant mortality led to replacement cycles in fertility within one to three years, although only a negligible cumulative effect on fertility persisted after five to ten years. Fluctuations in deaths among persons older than one year evoked a fertility response several years later, but this replacement response persisted after more than a decade. Although vector autoregression is not designed to account for long-term trends and their consequences, the interrelationships found here among exogenous weather shocks and fluctuations in economic conditions and demographic rates provide support for the homeostatic mechanisms hypothesized by classical economists and discussed by Malthus. The methodology of vector autoregression appears useful for studying historical series on climatic, economic and demographic variables where we do not yet have a sufficient theoretical foundation for specifying and estimating structural models.     

吐鲁番沙漠旅游资源开发利用研究

吐鲁番丰富多彩的丝路文化景观、浓郁的少数民族风情及独特的自然景观互相交融,已经成为全国知名的旅游区.但是,由于交通不便,资金匮乏,旅游线路设计不佳等原因,其开发利用过程中仍存在一些问题.应注意系统挖掘文化内涵;突出特色;发展重点景区,打造旅游精品;加大宣传力度;改善发展条件及投资环境.     

EFFECTS OF TAXES AND BENEFITS ON INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN KOREA

This paper examines the redistributive effects of Korea's fiscal policies, including consumption taxes and in‐kind benefits. Using the Household Income and Expenditure Survey of 2007, we find that taxes and transfers reduce income inequality in Korea by 13.8 percent. Contrary to the popular belief that direct taxes are the key tool for redistribution, in‐kind benefits, direct taxes, and social security contributions all decrease the Gini coefficient by 6.7, 4.7, and 2.9 percentage points, respectively. The redistributive effect of consumption taxes is small and negative (?0.5 percentage point). Policy simulations indicate that education spending financed by the personal income tax has a positive redistributive effect and that the lower 70 percent of households enjoy positive net benefits. Spending targeting the poor has a strong redistributive effect, which implies low popularity because the majority of households face net losses.     

Earnings and Dividend Announcements: Is There a Corroboration Effect?

We examine abnormal stock returns surrounding contemporaneous earnings and dividend announcements in order to determine whether investors evaluate the two announcements in relation to each other. We find that there is a statistically significant interaction effect. The abnormal return corresponding to any earnings or dividend announcement depends upon the value of the other announcement. This evidence suggests the existence of a corroborative relationship between the two announcements. Investors give more credence to unanticipated dividend increases or decreases when earnings are also above or below expectations, and vice versa.     

Migration selectivity and the effects of public programs

"A model of the spatial distribution of mobile heterogeneous agents is formulated to assess how a price change or program subsidy that is location-specific affects the composition of local residents via selective migration and thus biases evaluations of the effectiveness of the program based on its local consequences. Longitudinal data from Colombia are used to test the implications of migration selectivity. The findings confirm the existence of selective migration, suggesting that local subsidies to human capital attract high-income but, within income groups, low-fertility households and those with low human capital endowments. These migration patterns are shown to be consistent with the dominance of endowment over tastes heterogeneity in the population under plausible behavioral assumptions."