Understanding perpetual R&D races

This paper presents an experimental study of dynamic indefinite horizon R&D races with uncertainty and multiple prizes. The theoretical predictions are highly sensitive: small parameter changes determine if we should expect technological competition, and if so whether it is sustained, or if the market converges into one with entrenched leadership and lower aggregate R&D. The subjects’ strategies are far less sensitive. In most of the treatments, the R&D races tend to converge to entrenched leadership. We propose and apply a quantal response extension of Markov perfection that is qualitatively and largely quantitatively consistent with the experimental observations.     

Budget share and optimal commodity taxes without computation

This paper shows for the linear expenditure system that the optimal tax rates increase across commodities in the ratio of the respective budget shares of the rich to those of the poor—i.e., the more luxurious good has a higher tax. These budget shares can be calculated either at pre-tax or post-tax price levels, thus can be expressed directly in terms of the basic parameters of the linear expenditure system.     

THE CEO: A VISIBLE HAND IN WEALTH CREATION?

Commensurate with the growth of their pay packages and public visibility, the role of the CEO in the corporate value creation process has increased significantly in recent years. This article argues that sustained wealth creation in a corporation has three distinct elements. The first and most basic is the selection of the lines of business in which to operate; this element is probably the most visible manifestation of CEO action in large corporations today. The second element is the value creation model, which answers the question: How is this particular set of businesses expected to add value over and above the sum of the values of each business or asset category standing alone? The third element is the internal governance system, which establishes the corporate structure and administrative processes of the firm and, perhaps even more important, defines the corporate values that drive the strategic and operational priorities of the different business units. The authors suggest that the essence of the work of the CEO is to develop and maintain a balanced relationship among these three elements of wealth creation and to ensure that the relationship evolves in the face of changing circumstances. CEOs are inevitably faced with dilemmas in managing this process—in particular, the need to balance continuity and change and to maintain the integrity of short‐term performance disciplines while encouraging not only investment in growth opportunities (which can hurt near term performance), but also experimentation and collaboration among business units (which are difficult to measure and reward with most performance measurement and incentive schemes). Adding to the difficulties of managing such dilemmas, visibility and a strong public image are often thrust upon (if not sought by) CEOs, who must then determine how they can use that image to strengthen the commitment of their employees and investors.     

The idea of reproduction

The concept of social reproduction which helps to identify elements and relations decisive for a transition from one social formation to another is presented here as a contribution to the methodology of social forecasting. The theoretical schema is constructed and tested in a retrospective forecasting exercise. The same methods are then applied to qualify the elements of change in contemporary society.     

Practical methods for measuring and managing operational risk in the financial sector: A clinical study

This paper analyzes the implications of the advanced measurement approach (AMA) for the assessment of operational risk. Through a clinical case study on a matrix of two selected business lines and two event types of a large financial institution, we develop a procedure that addresses the major issues faced by banks in the implementation of the AMA. For each cell, we calibrate two truncated distributions functions, one for “normal” losses and the other for the “extreme” losses. In addition, we propose a method to include external data in the framework. We then estimate the impact of operational risk management on bank profitability, through an adapted measure of RAROC. The results suggest that substantial savings can be achieved through active management techniques.