Time Patience and Specialization Patterns in the Presence of Asset Trade

Specialization patterns in an open-economy two-sector growth model with endogenous capital accumulation are examined in the presence of free international lending and borrowing. Without free international lending and borrowing it is known that, whereas the less (time-)patient country decumulates real capital, the more patient country accumulates real capital and eventually specializes in a capital-intensive industry. However, free trade of international financial assets causes a dramatic change in long-run specialization patterns. In this case the less patient country may well specialize in the capital-intensive industry and the more patient country in the labor-intensive industry.     

International Asset Trade,Capital Income Taxation,and Specialization Patterns

This paper constructs a small economy version of dynamic Heckscher‐Ohlin models with overlapping generations and analyzes effects of capital income taxation on the specialization pattern of the country. It is shown that once international asset trade is allowed, in the presence of international technological asymmetries, a small country eventually leads to perfect specialization in our overlapping generations model. It is also shown that the residence‐based tax has no effect on the specialization pattern while the source‐based tax has a negative effect on capital accumulation and thereby it can affect the specialization pattern of the small country.     

Decomposition of Japanese Yen Interest Rate Data Through Local Regression

Seven different Japanese Yen interest rates recorded on a daily basisfor the period from 1986 to 1992 are simultaneously analyzed. Byintroducing a new concept of short term trend, we decomposeeach interest rate series into three components, long termtrend, short term trend and irregular. It is obtained by atwo step lowess smoothing technique. After that, amultivariate autoregressive model (MAR) is fitted to the vectorvalued time series obtained by combining those seven irregularcomponents. The decomposition and MAR model fitting were quitesatisfactory. It enables us to understand well various aspects ofinterest rate series from the trends, the MAR (2) coefficientsand its residuals. The result is compared with the decompositionthrough sabl and the advantages of our procedure will bedemonstrated in relations to other parametric model fitting likeARCH or GARCH. Based on the decomposition we can have betterdaily prediction and more stable long term forecasting.