Demand for meat and dairy products by Turkish households: a Bayesian censored system approach

We extend the Tobit (censored) linear equation system procedure to utility‐theoretic demand functions, along with a mapping mechanism to impose the adding‐up restriction implied by consumer utility maximization theory—a theoretical restriction very often ignored in previous empirical studies with censored demand systems. In this context, the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure is applied to the censored linear approximate almost ideal demand system (LAIDS) for 12 food products, using data from the Turkish Household Expenditure Survey. All own‐price elasticities are negative and expenditure elasticities positive. Uncompensated own‐price elasticities for rural households are generally much higher than those for their urban peers, though demand for most food products are own‐price elastic for both types of households. The differential patterns in demand elasticities between urban and rural households become even more evident (almost twice) as relatively more expensive foodstuffs are consumed, showing that accessibilities to alternative products have made rural Turkish households more cognizant toward price changes in foods. Household characteristics play a key role in food expenditures, notably so in urban areas, and regional and seasonal differences are also present.     

Demand for cigarettes in Turkey: an application of count data models

Household cigarette demand in Turkey is examined using the zero-inflated negative binomial model to account for a large portion of households not reporting cigarette smoking or purchase and estimated using the data from the national household survey implemented in 2003. Data were divided into two main groups: families with and without teenagers. Results identify relevant household head and household characteristics needed to develop effective public policy to prevent the decision to begin to smoke and to reduce cigarette purchase to lower the future growth of government healthcare expenditures. Specifically, healthcare expenditure share, income, and cigarette-price elasticities are relevant in lowering cigarette purchases. The calculated price elasticities for cigarette demand falls within the range determined by studies conducted for developed countries including the member states of the European Union. An estimate of the effect of an increase in the excise tax lowering demand is provided.     

HOUSEHOLD ALCOHOL AND TOBACCO EXPENDITURES IN TURKEY: A SAMPLE‐SELECTION SYSTEM APPROACH

Household characteristics variables are used to quantify alcohol and tobacco participation and spending level decisions for households in Turkey using a sample‐selection system. Statistical tests support separate analyses for urban and rural households and joint estimation of the equation system to ameliorate biases and improve statistical efficiency of estimates. Household characteristics play important roles in determining binary consumption decisions and levels of spending on tobacco but play less definitive roles in alcohol spending, for both urban and rural households. Differences are found in consumption behaviors between the two types of households. (JEL C24, D12, I18)     

The impact of license regulation on the number of recreation trips: is it worth considering?

A two-stage nonlinear least-squares model (2NLS) with an endogenous treatment effect on recreation trips describes the behavior of recreationists with and without a fishing/hunting license. The proposed 2NLS is applied to the derivation of the policy-relevant average gains in the presence of an endogeneity bias to a license fee implementation program regulated by states. Recreationists who purchased a license are likely to recreate more than are the nonlicensed holders because the regulation may reduce congestions at sites where licensee visit often. The license regulation has a greater impact on the use of natural resources after controlling observed and unobserved confounders which might be correlated with the probability of being a license holder and with the final outcome, the number of recreation trips. We confirm that the individual without a permit regards the recreation trip as less valuable than does the individual having a license permit. We also found that the likelihood of purchasing a license among young adult recreationists is not at the level the states may desire. In addition, the number of trips demanded is more responsive to the nontransportation-related implicit travel cost than to the transportation-related implicit travel cost, although travel implicit costs are price inelastic.      

How to detect illegal corporate insider trading? A data mining approach for detecting suspicious insider transactions

Only in the U.S. Stock Exchanges, the daily average trading volume is about 7 billion shares. This vast amount of trading shows the necessity of understanding the hidden insights in the data sets. In this study, a data mining technique, clustering based outlier analysis is applied to detect suspicious insider transactions. 1,244,815 transactions of 61,780 insiders are analysed, which are acquired from Thomson Financial, covering a period of January 2010–April 2017. In order to detect outliers, similar transactions are grouped into the same clusters by using a two‐step clustering based outlier detection technique, which is an integration of k‐means and hierarchical clustering. Then, it is shown that outlying transactions earn higher abnormal returns than non‐outlying transactions by using event study methodology.     

A censored system of demand analysis to unpacked and prepackaged milk consumption in Turkey

The market driven and globally integrated economy since 1980 in Turkey has boosted milk demand like any other foods. We estimate the impacts of factors affecting households unpacked and prepackaged fluid milk demand in Turkey using a bivariate censored system of demand model. The correlation coefficient from bivariate censored model between these two products indicates that unobservable factors influencing the unpacked fluid milk would likely and significantly lower the consumption of the packed fluid milk for a household. The model also reveals that non-economic demographic factors play crucial roles in determining the quantity demanded of both products, especially the unpacked fluid milk. Both products are substitute one for another and both products are price elastic, suggesting that, for example, more than a change observed in the unpacked milk price would occur in the demand for the unpacked fluid milk with an increase or decrease in the unpacked fluid milk commodity prices. Interestingly, the unpacked fluid milk is an inferior good, while the prepackaged fluid milk is an normal good, indicating that the demand for the packed fluid milk increases with the increased in household income. Milk industries can generate additional revenues by decreasing both product prices.