Financial instability and the real economy

Summary The paper deals with three different areas of the financial sphere: national moneys, exchange rates and financial claims, markets and institutions. For each of them, it tries to identify the main forms of instability which may occur, their causes and consequences for the real economy. Depending on the area concerned, the forms of instability include inflation, fluctuations and misalignments in interest rates, exchange rates and asset prices and finally solvency and liquidity crises of institutions. It is concluded that, over the last fifteen years, significant progress has been made in the policy framework to counteract instabilities in the national and monetary spheres. The conclusion is more mixed with regard to the structure of financial markets.[/p]We are grateful to Julian Alworth, Svein Andresen, Gavin Bingham, Joe Bisignano, Michael Hutchison and Paul van den Bergh for useful comments.     

Towards a Macroprudential Framework for Financial Supervision and Regulation?

Over the last decade or so, addressing financial instabilityhas risen to the top of the policy agenda. This essay arguesthat in order to improve the safeguards against financial instability,it may be desirable to strengthen further the macroprudentialorientation of current prudential frameworks, a process thatis already under way. The essay defines, compares and contraststhe macro- and microprudential dimensions that inevitably coexistin financial regulatory and supervisory arrangements, examinesthe nature of financial instability against this backgroundand draws conclusions about the broad outline of desirable policyefforts.(JEL G2) "Words, like nature, half reveal and half conceal the soul within" Alfred Lord Tennyson "When I use a word... it just means what I choose it to mean– neither more, nor less" Humpty Dumpty     

Regulatory Uncertainty and Share Price Volatility: the English and Welsh Water Industry’s Periodic Price Review

This paper models the London stock markets response to the 1994 Periodic Review of prices in the English and Welsh water industry using both GARCH and stochastic volatility models. The results indicate that a significant reduction in the volatility of share prices for eight of the ten water and sewerage companies followed the announcement of revised industry price-caps. Investor expectations adjusted rapidly, reflecting confidence in the credibility and political sustainability of the settlement.     

THE PUBLIC SECTOR PAY GAP IN FRANCE, GREAT BRITAIN AND ITALY

We investigate public–private pay determination using French, British and Italian microdata. While traditional methods focus on parametric methods to estimate the public sector pay gap, in this paper, we use both non-parametric (kernel) and quantile regression methods to analyze the distribution of wages across sectors. We show that the public–private (hourly) wage differential is sensitive to the choice of quantile and that the pattern of premia varies with both gender and skill. In all countries the public sector is found to pay more to low skilled workers with respect to the private sector, whilst the reverse is true for high skilled workers. When comparing results across countries, we find that where pay formation is more regulated (i.e. as in France and Italy) the public sector pay gap is smaller; whilst where market factors play a larger role in pay determination (i.e. as in Great Britain) the public sector pay gap is larger—particularly in the lower part of the wage distribution—and females are much better off in the public sector as compared to the private sector.     

Nature-based recreation associated with connectedness to nature and leisure satisfaction among students in Brazil

ABSTRACT

There is growing evidence that nature-based recreation (NBR) during childhood promotes connectedness to nature, which in turn fuels NBR during adulthood. In addition to providing a number of health benefits, NBR participation may enhance leisure satisfaction, an important predictor of happiness and life satisfaction. In this exploratory study, we tested these hypothesised links using a path model with a cross-sectional sample of 224 Brazilian college students, where NBR participation during childhood increases connectedness to nature and NBR participation during adulthood, which in turn promotes leisure satisfaction. The model fit the data well χ² (2) = 1.924, χ²/df = 0.962 (N = 220, p = .38), CFI = 1.00, AGFI = .978, GFI = .996, and RMSEA = .00, with results showing an indirect positive link between NBR during childhood and leisure satisfaction, and a direct link between NBR during adulthood and leisure satisfaction. The indirect effect of connectedness to nature on leisure satisfaction was also significant: NBR during childhood fostered connectedness to nature, which motivated NBR during adulthood and higher levels of leisure satisfaction. Leisure practitioners can improve people’s leisure satisfaction by promoting engagement in NBR activities across life stages and emphasising connection to nature.     

Legacies,Conflict and ‘Path Dependence’ in the Former Soviet Union

This article analyses management–union–worker relations in a foreign‐owned Moldovan clothing factory. Studies of post‐socialist industrial relations have focused on explaining labour quiescence, advancing ‘path dependence’ and ‘Soviet legacy’ arguments. These draw attention to strong links between management and unions, and weak relations between the latter and workers. We show how the union has, in one case, drawn creatively on Soviet legacies to develop strong articulation between itself and women workers. This was part of a wider adaptive strategy within which the union transformed the meaning of previous functions and developed novel ones. The outcome is a well‐organized representative union capable of challenging management at the negotiating table, as well as on the shop floor. This seems unlikely to be universal but equally unlikely to be unique.     

Central bank disclosure as a macroprudential tool for financial stability

The Basel Capital Accord (pillar 3) states that disclosure of information (transparency) is essential to financial stability. This study analyzes, through inflation reports, the disclosure of information from the Central Bank of Brazil concerning the credit market. We consider credit risk and capital buffers as measures of financial stability in this analysis. Furthermore, in order to measure the perception of the monetary authority on the credit market, we built two indices based on the central bank’s communication on credit development. We performed a panel data analysis based on a sample of 125 banks for the period from June 1999 to September 2014 (7000 observations). The findings suggest that central bank communication regarding expectations concerning the credit market contributes to financial stability. Therefore, this kind of communication of central banks (about credit development) may constitute an important macroprudential tool to improve financial stability.     

A conceptual framework for public-private interplay in the telecommunications sector

Public activity in the telecommunications industry has experienced important transformations in the last decade: “reinvolvement” in infrastructure deployment, “innovative” boosting measures, and decentralisation of some decisions. Conceptually, even more important than the measures themselves is the fact that private agents often participate in their realisation and execution. This paper reviews how justifications for public action that would apply to any economic activity area have modelled the public-private relationship in the telecommunications sector. Subsequently, it focuses on the analysis of the new spaces for public-private collaboration that are currently opening up.     

Debt and Firms' Relationships: The Italian Evidence

Theories that predict the strategic use of debt by players engaged in a verticalrelationship are tested using an empirical model of debt usage. It is found thatfirms selling mainly to other firms are characterised on average by a higherlevel of debt. No evidence supports the notion that buyers increase their leverageto commit themselves not to behave opportunistically towards their suppliers. Theresults in the paper also suggest that group organisation limits the incentive to usedebt strategically within the holding-subsidiaries relationship.     

Behaviour‐Based and Outcome‐Based Control Systems: A Meta‐Analytic Study

Sales control systems are instruments used by firms to improve performance and other organizational outcomes. To understand their antecedents and consequences, this paper conducts a meta‐analysis based on 104 studies. The results showed significant relationships between behaviour‐ and outcome‐based control systems and the complexity of the products, bonuses, financial performance, sales innovation, organizational support and satisfaction with supervisors. The outcomes revealed that behaviour‐based control systems were the most effective mechanism in turbulent markets and for determining financial performance. However, outcome‐based control systems were the most efficient instrument for complex products.