The forward exchange rate and the prediction of the future spot rate: Empirical evidence

This paper examines the characteristics and evaluates the record of the forward exchange rate as a predictor of the future spot rate of three European currencies during the recent period of floating rates. The forward rate (for 1, 3 and 6 months) is compared to a simple predictor of ‘no change’ extrapolations (i.e., a Martingale model) by the use of Theil's inequality ratios. Theil's measures are then applied to assess the relative importance of the various sources of the forward's prediction errors, and the efficiency of the forecast is tested. The results show that the forward rate, while generally producing unbiased forecasts, fails to track the fluctuations in future spot rates and poorly reflects their variations. Further, it does not perform better than the current spot rate in predicting the future spot rate for all the examined forecast leads. Thus its usefulness for the purpose of business decisions is questioned.     

Exchange risk and unanticipated changes in exchange rates

In this paper exchange risk is defined as the unanticipated part of the future changes in the exchange rates of a given currency. The unanticipated component in the fluctuations of a given currency is identified on the basis of a dynamic equilibrium process which determines the anticipated changes in the future exchange rates. Following the basic definition, a hypothetical process of dynamic adjustment and an empirical illustration of a possible estimation are discussed.     

Venture Capital Funds, Financial Foreign Direct Investment and the Generation of Local Comparative Advantage in the Technology Sector in Israel

The rapid development of a new comparative advantage in thehi-tech sector in Israel in the period 1995–2005 providesan example of a new form of foreign direct investment (FDI).Unlike traditional FDI, this new form of international investment,that we dubbed financial foreign direct investment (FFDI), involvescapital flows from developed countries to small countries andto the emerging markets. The providers of this capital, definedin our study as "sector-specific capital", are financial andrisk intermediaries like venture capital funds and private equityfunds. Like multinational enterprises they transfer factorsof production across borders seeking to maximize their value.In doing so, they are a part of a process of generating newcomparative advantages. We focus on the case of Israel and showthat, due to the inherent asymmetry, it takes government actionto trigger the process of importing sector-specific capitalto Israel primarily from the US capital market, but once theprocess has begun, it has led to economic growth via reducingtangible and intangible trade costs, creating trust and thusgenerating competitive advantage for innovative technology firmsfrom Israel in the global markets.     

Currency-related risk and risk premium in the world's currency market

The foreign exchange market has become a major arena for investment activity for both corporate and individual investors. Intensive and widespread international investment activity makes the empirical estimation of exchange risk a very topical subject. In this connection, the classic controversy between Hicks and Telser assumes new relevance. In this paper, exchange risk is estimated in the context of the systematic-risk framework. The estimation is performed for three major floating currencies: the English pound, the Swiss franc, and the Deutsche mark, over a four-year period. The results suggest that although the total risk (measured by the variance) is high, the systematic risk is close to zero. This result provides an explanation for the apparent inconsistency between the Hicks-Keynes hypothesis which indicates the existence of a positive risk premium in the forward exchange market and the empirical evidence of a zero risk premium.     

Political economy of international diversification: The case for partial integration

The literature on international portfolio diversification explored the benefits of international diversification and the pricing of securities in an international context largely from the perspective of an integrated world capital market. Imperfections in the international markets were acknowledged as exogenous variables added to the basically integrated market, and their effects on security prices, consequences of diversification,etc, were then measured. All studies are related, explicitly or implicitly to two extreme situations. One extreme situation is complete segmentation, the other is perfect market integration. This paper begins with a literature review to illustrate the inadequacy of either of the extreme situations described above. A case of partial integration where the barriers are an endogenous part of the model is then presented. Indirect and circumstantial evidence that the international financial markets are partially integrated by design, and not as a result of market failures, is then presented as a preliminary validation of the partial integration model.The authors are thankful for the very valuable comments of Professor Peter Kaus of UCR.     

Growth participation units: A proposal for a long-term financial instrument

The financing of long-term growth in developing countries has become more of a problem every year. In the following article one particular new financial instrument — Growth Participation Units — is discussed as a particular way to attract private sector long-term financing of development.     

International lending and income redistribution : An alternative view of country risk

The international debt crisis, where many large LDC borrowers were found lacking the ability to service their debt, redirects attention to the process by which those loans were granted. This renewed attention also brought forward the subject of country risk. This paper begins by demonstrating that the traditional measures of borrower credit worthiness had no impact on the credit granting decisions by international banks. The only variable which has some degree of explanatory power is the debt service as proportion of GNP. In other words, LDCs have borrowed money to service existing debts. Against the failure of the traditional model an alternative view is presented. This model is based on elements of political economy and taxation. The big borrowers of the LDC's are viewed as having the power to tax the developed countries and thus to affect a transfer of real income. This view is presented and analysed by means of a game-theoretic model as well as in a development economic framework. The implications of this view are extended to country risk analysis.