From Judicial Sovereignty to Collective Democracy: The Development of J.R. Commons’ Perspective on Progressive Institutional Change

Abstract:

This article clarifies the significance of “collective democracy” in the works of John R. Commons by comparing it with “judicial sovereignty” in terms of its contribution to “progress.” We can thus answer two issues that Paul D. Bush does not clearly address: (i) what setup for policy formation contributes to progress and (ii) what is the role of economists within a collective democracy? Based on the comparison, the answer to the first question is collective democracy, and regarding the second question, the roles of economists as both economists and “institutional” economists are extrapolated.     

Signal Extraction Problems in Seismology*

The earth's surface is under continuous influence of a variety of natural forces such as the effect of past earthquakes, wave, wind, tide, air pressure, precipitation and a variety of human induced sources. Since it is almost impossible to describe the response to these noise inputs precisely, for automatic processing of seismic data, proper statistical modeling is necessary. In this paper, we describe four specific examples of time series modeling for signal extraction problems related to seismology. Namely, we consider 1) the estimation of the arrival time of a seismic signal, 2) the extraction of small seismic signal from noisy data, 3) the detection of the coseismic effect in groundwater level data contaminated by various effects from air pressure etc., and 4) the estimation of changing spectral characteristic of seismic record.     

Money-Hoarding as a Behaviour Towards Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk

This paper explores the implications of the presence of uninsured idiosyncratic risks for the hoarding of intrinsically useless fiat money in an overlapping-generations model. It is shown that: (a) monetary equilibria exist in almost all cases; (b) the valuation of money is not necessarily Pareto-improving since the non-monetary steady state may Pareto-dominate the monetary one; and (c) the accelerating inflation may, moreover, reduce the long-run capital stock.
JEL Classification Number: E41.     

Mostly harmless simulations? Using Monte Carlo studies for estimator selection

We consider two recent suggestions for how to perform an empirically motivated Monte Carlo study to help select a treatment effect estimator under unconfoundedness. We show theoretically that neither is likely to be informative except under restrictive conditions that are unlikely to be satisfied in many contexts. To test empirical relevance, we also apply the approaches to a real‐world setting where estimator performance is known. Both approaches are worse than random at selecting estimators that minimize absolute bias. They are better when selecting estimators that minimize mean squared error. However, using a simple bootstrap is at least as good and often better. For now, researchers would be best advised to use a range of estimators and compare estimates for robustness.     

Statistical Inference Using Stochastic Switching Models for the Discrimination of Unobserved Display Promotion from POS Data

The execution of price and/or display promotion has a significant effect on the sales of a brand sold in a supermarket. Information on price and/or sales is available from POS data. However, unless an investigator collects information on the execution of display promotions from every retail store, such information is unavailable. This paper presents a method of identifying whether display promotion has been executed without having to visit individual stores. We treat the execution/non-execution of a display promotion as a state variable. An unknown stationary probability matrix is assumed to describe the probability of a transition between states. Each state is characterized by a different stationary time series model with unknown parameters. The objective of the analysis is to identify the model and to assign a probability model for each state at each time instant. Finally, we provide a high precision estimator of a past execution/non-execution of a display promotion based on the proposed model.