Scarcity and appropriative competition

This paper formalizes the commonsensical hypothesis that resource scarcity causes a large allocation of time and effort to appropriative competition. Our main innovation is to model explicitly the positive intertemporal effect of consumption on the probability of survival. The critical assumption is that this effect becomes stronger as resources become scarcer. We also show that anticipated future resource abundance increases the incremental value of survival and, consequently, amplifies the current allocation of time and effort to appropriative competition. Interestingly, if resources are currently scarce, then larger anticipated future abundance can cause a big enough increase in the time and effort allocated to appropriative competition to result in a decrease in the sum of current and expected future utility, a “paradox of anticipated abundance”.     

Dominance Statistics: A Simulation Study on the d Statistic

Quality &; Quantity - Cliff (1993) has proposed the use of a measure of effect size alternative to traditionalmean differences: δ {? = Pr(xi1 &;gt; xj2) - Pr(xi1 &;lt; xj2)}which,...     

Endogenous retirement and public pension system reform in Spain

Population aging has spurred developed countries around the world to reform their PAYG pension systems. In particular, delaying legal retirement ages and reducing the generosity of pension benefits have been widely implemented changes. This paper assesses the potential success of these policies in the case of the Spanish economy, and compares them with the results obtained by the (rather modest) reforms already implemented in 1997 and 2001. This evaluation is accomplished in a heterogeneous-agent dynamic general equilibrium model where individuals can adjust their retirement ages in response to changes to the pension rules. We check the ability of the model to reproduce the basic stylized facts of retirement behavior (particularly the pattern of early retirement induced by minimum pensions). The model is then used to explore the impact of pension reforms. We find that already implemented changes actually increase the implicit liabilities of the system. In contrast, delaying the legal retirement age and extending the averaging period in the pension formula to cover most of the individual's life-cycle can reduce the implicit liabilities substantially. These findings reveal the failure of the Spanish political system to distribute the costs of population aging more evenly across the generations.     

The relationship between multinationality and performance: Knowledge-intensive vs. capital-intensive service micro-multinational enterprises

This research explores the relationship between multinationality and firm performance (M-P) in the context of micro-multinational enterprises (mMNEs) within the service sector. We examine the moderating effects of industry characteristics using a data set of 1082 Spanish service mMNEs over an eight-year period. The empirical results provide statistical evidence that knowledge-intensive service mMNEs exhibit an inverted U-shaped M-P relationship, while capital-intensive service mMNEs present a U-shaped relationship. Our findings demonstrate that knowledge-intensive service mMNEs increase their performance in the initial stage of multinationality, encounter a threshold of internationalization at relatively low levels of multinationality and have a propensity to over-internationalize. By comparison, capital-intensive service mMNEs experience negative performance effects at low levels of multinationality and positive ones as they further internationalize. Given that their operations are scale-sensitive, they tend to expand internationally by concentrating their operations in few foreign markets as a means to overcome the liabilities of internationalization and smallness. We contribute to the literatures on multinationality research in the service sector and on SME internationalization by showing that the effects of multinationality on the performance of mMNEs depend on industry characteristics and that such contextual factors provide a better understanding of the M-P relationship.     

Backtesting extreme value theory models of expected shortfall

We use stock market data to analyze the quality of alternative models and procedures for forecasting expected shortfall (ES) at different significance levels. We compute ES forecasts from conditional models applied to the full distribution of returns as well as from models that focus on tail events using extreme value theory (EVT). We also apply the semiparametric filtered historical simulation (FHS) approach to ES forecasting to obtain 10-day ES forecasts. At the 10-day horizon we combine FHS with EVT. The performance of the different models is assessed using six different ES backtests recently proposed in the literature. Our results suggest that conditional EVT-based models produce more accurate 1-day and 10-day ES forecasts than do non-EVT based models. Under either approach, asymmetric probability distributions for return innovations tend to produce better forecasts. Incorporating EVT in parametric or semiparametric approaches also improves ES forecasting performance. These qualitative results are also valid for the recent crisis period, even though all models then underestimate the level of risk. FHS narrows the range of numerical forecasts obtained from alternative models, thereby reducing model risk. Combining EVT and FHS seems to be best approach for obtaining accurate ES forecasts.     

INSTITUTIONS AND PERFORMANCE IN EUROPEAN LABOUR MARKETS: TAKING A FRESH LOOK AT EVIDENCE

Abstract This paper presents a selective survey of the recent literature on labour market institutions and offers new empirical EU‐based evidence on the impact of labour market reforms on employment and labour market adjustment. Although the literature traditionally treats labour market institutions as exogenous, attention shifted recently towards understanding the underlying causes of specific institutional arrangements. As a consequence, the literature highlights the great importance of an efficient policy design exploiting these interactions wisely and identifies general principles for achieving an efficient policy design at both macro and micro levels. Although empirical evidence does not show a major change in terms of intensity of labour market reform after the setting of the Economic and Monetary Union and the creation of the euro, the reforms aiming at strengthening the labour market attachment of vulnerable groups tend to have been successful both in raising their employment and increasing labour market adjustment.     

Book reviews

B.G.Dale & J.J.Plunkett (eds) Hemel Hempstead, Philip Allan,1989, 350 pp., £ 18.00

Theories and Technologies of the Knowledge SocietyNiels Ole Finnemann (ed) Centre for Cultural Research, University of Aarhus, Denmark, 1989, 100 pp., DK40

The Internationalisation of Software and Computer Services OECD Paris, OECD, 1989, 180pp., Ff120

Techno-diplomacy. US-Soviet Confrontations in Science and Technology Glenn E. Schweitzer New York and London, Plenum Press, 1989, xiv f 320 pp., $23.00

Strategic Management of Services in the Arab Gulf States: Company and Industry Cases M. Sami Kassem & Ghazi M. Habib Berlin, Walter de Gruyter, 1989, 480 pp.