Market Structure and Financial Stability: the Interaction between Profit-Oriented and Mutual Cooperative Banks in Italy

Journal of Financial Services Research - In this study, we analyze the relation between market structure and financial stability both theoretically and empirically by considering two types of...     

Social Exclusion and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation in European Economies

The aims of this article are to propose an overall index of social exclusion and to analyze its relationship with economic growth in European countries. We approach social exclusion as a multidimensional phenomenon by a three‐mode principal components analysis (Tucker3 model). This method is applied to estimate an indicator of social exclusion for 28 European countries between 1995 and 2010. The empirical evidence shows that in the short run: (1) Granger causality runs one way from social exclusion to economic growth and not the other way; (2) countries with a higher level of social exclusion have higher growth rates of real GDP per capita; and (3) social exclusion has a larger effect than income inequality on economic growth. The policy implication of our analysis is that social inclusion is not a source of economic growth in the short term.     

How did the Great Recession Affect Gender Disparity in Europe? An Analysis by a Multidimensional Deprivation Approach

ABSTRACT

This paper analyses how the Great Recession affected the gender disparity in material and social deprivation in Europe. We propose multidimensional non-monetary indexes of absolute and relative (i.e. using peer comparisons) deprivations estimated on data from the European Quality of Life Survey for the waves 2007 and 2011. We find that the Great Recession decreased gender disparity over all the dimensions of deprivations. By applying a Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition, we estimate that this decline of gender gap has depended on a reduction of the difference in characteristics between genders that has more than offset an increase of gender discrimination.     

The dynamics of international competitiveness

The Dynamics of International Competitiveness. — This paper focuses on the determinants of international competitiveness over the seventies and eighties. The theoretical framework adopted here is based on a “technology-gap” account of trade flows. The econometric analysis relies on a dynamic model estimated by pooling time-series across countries. The short- and long-term impacts of both technical change and labour costs on trade performance are investigated. It is found that technological variables (patents and investments) play a major role in shaping dynamics of exportshares, while labour costs asymmetries among countries appear to affect trade performance only in the short term.     

Book reviews

Conclusion This book argues convincingly that the history of technologies play a major part in current economic evolution. It provides data, figures and explanations related to public policies but does not take into account domestic industrial dynamics and does not explain how national leaders have emerged in high tech industries. Intuitively, one can imagine that the history of firms and industries play a part as well as the history of public policies.European data relate at the best up to 1988 and are scarce relative to the detailed presentation of American public policies (see for examples the data related to basic research between 1975 and 1988 (p. 131).The book aims very clearly to suggest guidelines to the American administration public policies devoted to technologies in order to maintain the leadership of US firms in high tech industries. Unfortunately, the conclusions are not very clear-cut and it is difficult to draw lesson for European countries or for the NICs as the authors themselves think these conclusions are hazardous even in the US case.     

Intertemporal complementarity and money in an economy out of equilibrium

The role of money clearly stands up in a truly irreversible process of economic change, like the building up of an altogether new productive capacity. Money has an essential role in this process, although not in the usual sense of modifying the real equilibria of the economy. As a matter of fact the problem to be faced in the context considered-where focus is on the process of change in itself rather than on its outcome-is theviability of the process of change. This paper shows that it is indeed the availability of financial resources at the right moment during the process that determines its viability, and that this stresses the fact that, out of equilibrium,real choices cannot be separated from financial decisions.     

Inequality and growth: the perverse relation between the productive and the non-productive assets of the economy

The explosion generated by the global financial crisis in 2008 and its transmission to the real economies have been interpreted as calling for new kinds of regulation of the banking and the financial systems that would have allowed re-establishing a virtuous relation between the real and the financial sectors of the economy. In this paper we maintain a different view, that the financial crisis and the ensuing real crisis have roots in the strong increase in income inequality that has been taking place in the Western world in the last thirty years or so. This has created an all around aggregate demand deficiency crisis that has strongly reduced prospects and opportunities for investments in productive capacities and shifted resources toward other uses, thus feeding a perverse relation between the productive and the non-productive assets of the economy. In this context the way out of the crisis is re-establishing the right distributive conditions, which cannot be obtained by a policy aimed at relieving the weight of private or public debts but calls for a redistribution through taxes on the incomes of non-productive sectors, a fine tuning that should prevent excessive taxations transforming positive into negative effects.     

Evaluation of volatility predictions in a VaR framework

The evaluation of volatility forecasts is not straightforward and some issues can arise. A standard approach relies on statistical loss functions. Another approach bases the evaluation of the volatility predictions on utility functions or Value at Risk (VaR) measures. This work aims to combine the two approaches, using the VaR measures within the loss functions. By means of this method, the VaR measures obtained from a set of competing models are plugged into two loss functions, the magnitude loss function and a proposed new one. This latter loss function more heavily penalizes the models with a number of VaR violations greater than the expected one. The loss function values are evaluated against a benchmark obtained from the inclusion of a consistent estimate of the VaR measures in the loss function. In order to investigate the performance of the proposed method and the new loss function, a Monte Carlo experiment and an empirical analysis of a stock listed on the New York Stock Exchange are provided. The proposed strategy helps with the selection of a superior model, in terms of forecast accuracy, when the cited approaches do not clearly and uniquely identify it. Moreover, the new asymmetric loss function allows a greater discrimination with regard to models, helping to find the best volatility model.