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1.
Control groups can provide counterfactual evidence for assessing the impact of an event or policy change on a target variable. We argue that fitting a multivariate time series model offers potential gains over a direct comparison between the target and a weighted average of controls. More importantly, it highlights the assumptions underlying methods such as difference in differences and synthetic control, suggesting ways to test these assumptions. Gains from simple and transparent time series models are analysed using examples from the literature, including the California smoking law of 1989 and German reunification. We argue that selecting controls using a time series strategy is preferable to existing data‐driven regression methods. 相似文献
2.
Rodríguez Gabriel Ojeda Cunya Junior A. Gonzáles Tanaka José Carlos 《Portuguese Economic Journal》2019,18(2):107-123
Portuguese Economic Journal - A set of RLS-type models with ARMA and ARFIMA dynamics is estimated and compared in a forecasting exercise with ARFIMA, GARCH and FIGARCH models. It is an extension of... 相似文献
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The Review of Austrian Economics - A key insight in Hayek’s thought is the importance of so-called “local knowledge” in economic activity. In The Fatal Conceit, he states that... 相似文献
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I. E. Ilina E. N. Zharova S. P. Burlankov 《Studies on Russian Economic Development》2018,29(2):207-213
This paper presents an approach to assessing the efficacy of public spending on research and development in state programs. At present, there is a need to develop a unified approach to the analysis and evaluation of the efficacy of such spending from the perspective of participants in state programs (federal executive bodies). The proposed approach does not allow evaluating the efficacy of public spending on the development of research areas assigned to the authors. 相似文献
7.
Simon P. Anderson
ystein Foros Hans Jarle Kind 《Journal of Economics & Management Strategy》2019,28(1):125-137
Consumer “multihoming” (watching two TV channels, or buying two news magazines) has surprisingly important effects on market equilibrium and performance in (two‐sided) media markets. We show this by introducing consumer multihoming and advertising finance into the classic circle model of product differentiation. When consumers multihome (attend more than one platform), media platforms can charge only incremental value prices to advertisers. Entry or merger leaves consumer prices unchanged under consumer multihoming, but leaves advertiser prices unchanged under single‐homing: Multihoming flips the side of the market on which platforms compete. In contrast to standard circle results, equilibrium product variety can be insufficient under multihoming. 相似文献
8.
Hilliard Jitka Jahera John S. Zhang Haoran 《Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting》2019,53(4):1165-1193
Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - We examine how changes in dividend policy in 2008 as the financial crisis was unfolding influenced firm risk-adjusted returns in the following years.... 相似文献
9.
Alan P. Ker 《Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie》2021,69(1):17-17
President Biden was sworn in on January 20, 2021 after a 4‐year term by President Trump. Certainly, Trump's norm breaking presidency impacted Canada in significant ways and the agricultural sector was no exception. In this issue, we have a set of four short articles discussing the possible implications on Canadian agriculture of transitioning from a Trump to Biden presidency. Issues related to Canada‐U.S. agricultural trade, political norms and uncertainty, U.S. domestic support, participation in trade agreements, and U.S.‐China relations are all considered. 相似文献
10.
Most development projects encounter a highly uncertain entitlement process that is largely uncontrollable by developers. In this study, entitlement is modeled as a separate stage within a compound real option, where developers begin with minimal control (maximum risk) and each successful stage increases control (decreases risk). We solve the model analytically, provide three‐dimensional numerical comparisons, and empirically test the model's predictions using hand collected rezoning petitions. Our main result refines the classic development option model: developers first invest early (secure entitlements) in order to obtain the option to subsequently delay investment (construct the optimal building at the optimal time). 相似文献