Pension funds saving individuation

This paper considers a pension insurance problem using an intertemporal framework. We assume a deterministic framework in order to obtain tractable and yet revealing results regarding the propensity to save for retirement. The essential conclusions of this paper include a condition for a single switch, that is, when the saver will decide the switching time, prior to retirement, to start saving. Because of the linear objective used in this paper, saving rates were found to be of the bang-bang type. In addition, we show that the tax effects are important. The richer the saver, the greater the tax advantages for pension savings.     

Claims Reserving with a Stochastic Vector Projection

In the last three decades, a variety of stochastic reserving models have been proposed in the general insurance literature mainly using (or reproducing) the well-known Chain-Ladder claims-reserving estimates. In practice, when the data do not satisfy the Chain-Ladder assumptions, high prediction errors might occur. Thus, in this article, a combined methodology is proposed based on the stochastic vector projection method and uses the regression through the origin approach of Murphy, but with heteroscedastic errors instead, and different from those that used by Mack. Furthermore, the Mack distribution-free model appears to have higher prediction errors when compared with the proposed one, particularly, for data sets with increasing (regular) trends. Finally, three empirical examples with irregular and regular data sets illustrate the theoretical findings, and the concepts of best estimate and risk margin are reported.     

Market consistent valuations with financial imperfection

In this paper, we study market consistent valuations in imperfect markets. In the first part of the paper, we observe that in an imperfect market one needs to distinguish two type of market consistencies, namely types I and II. We show that while market consistency of type I holds without very strong conditions, market consistency of type II (which in the literature is known as the usual definition of market consistency) is only well defined in perfect markets. This is important since the existing literature on market consistency considers perfect markets where the two market consistencies are equivalent. In the second part of the paper, by introducing a best estimator we find strong connections between hedging and market consistency of either type. We show under very general conditions, the type I and the type II market consistent evaluators are best estimators, and establish a two-step representation for the market consistent risk evaluators. In the third part of the paper, we present several families of market consistent evaluators in imperfect markets.     

The redistributive effects of inflation and of the introduction of a real tax system in the U.S. bond market

This paper investigates which types of borrowers and lenders in the U.S. bond market gain (or lose) as result of the interaction of inflation with a nominal and discriminating tax structure. It is shown that an increase in the rate of inflation favors tax exempt institutions, and probably other lenders too. Corporate borrowers probably gain while mortage borrowers probably lose. The paper also investigates the one shot redistributive effects of indexing the tax structure. It is shown that the reform hurts tax exempt institutional investors and, probably, other lenders too. It hurts corporate borrowers and probably favors state and local governments and mortgage borrowers.     

Withdrawal behavior and withholding efforts at work (WBWEW): Assessing the financial cost

In the continuing effort to confront the loss of profitability to industry as a result of withdrawal behavior and withholding efforts at work, this article presents an advanced and improved formula for estimating both the direct and indirect costs to a company resulting from this errant behavior. The emphasis is on a quantitative approach that incorporates the added value of forgone revenue rather than merely the cost of payments to the absentees as in earlier quantifications.     

Modeling Frost Losses: Application to Pricing Frost Insurance

The main objective of this article is to model the losses caused by frost events and use it to price frost insurance. Since the data on frost events are either unavailable or rarely available, we have chosen to obtain a model for frost losses based on temperature by using some fundamental agricultural engineering findings on frost damage. The main challenges in modeling frost loss variables are, first, the nonlinearity of the frost losses with respect to the temperature and, second, the fruit resistance to the first few hours of low temperature. We address both issues when introducing our frost loss variable. Then after finding the loss model, we use it to price frost insurance for a general family of insurance contracts that do not generate any risk of moral hazard. In particular, we will find the premiums of stop-loss policies for losses to citrus fruits using Value at Risk, Conditional Value at Risk, and Wang's premium based on temperature data from San Joaquin Drainage in California.