An Empirical Investigation of Shock Persistence in Economic Time Series*

Whether or not shocks persist has important implications in economics. An empirical study investigates this issue for key Australian and US macroeconomic time series. The existence of persistence is investigated by unit root tests and its magnitude estimated by recently proposed techniques. Results from these different approaches are compared.     

HEALTH INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC OUTPUT IN REGIONAL CHINA

Using a 29‐year (1978–2006) panel of provincial‐level data from China, this article investigates the role of health capital in a human capital model of economic output. Robust evidence is found through panel cointegration analysis that health capital has a significant and positive effect on the Gross Regional Product in China; the effect being stronger in the inland regions compared to the coastal areas based on estimates that account for regional heterogeneity. This article highlights and discusses the potential role of diminishing returns to health investment in this globally important area. (JEL I15, R11, C23)     

Sport and common‐sense racial science

This paper confronts the salience of arguments that identify the racial basis of athletic ability. It is argued that these notions of racial athleticism are developed through the interaction between ideas and ways of thinking about human beings and racial groups, reflecting Gramsci's concept of ‘common sense’ that explores the complex correspondence between the presentation of fact and opinion, science and myth. The paper suggests that the mobilization of objective scientific method and subjective plural multiculturalist values within racial athleticism help reinforce its claims to logical validity and moral legitimacy. In response, it is argued that the presentation of the biological basis of race and integrity of cultural difference and particularity within a scientific, intuitive, and principled framework constitutes racial athleticism as a powerful common‐sense idea that cannot be easily dismantled by the simple counter‐presentation of alternative facts. Rather, it is suggested that a progressive response requires building an ethical critique that does not use the mantra of social constructionism to evade corporeality and understandings of embodied difference. It is asserted that the iniquitous applications and palatable racism that lurk beneath the reasonable façade of racial athleticism can only be uncovered through interrogating its common‐sense configuration and analytical weaknesses.     

How Much Are Car Purchases Driven by Home Equity Withdrawal?

Previous research indicates that changes in housing wealth affect consumer spending on cars. We find that home equity extraction plays only a small role in this relationship. Consumers rarely use funds from equity extraction to purchase a car directly, even during the mid‐2000s’ housing boom; this finding holds across three nationally representative household surveys. We find in credit bureau data that equity extraction does lead to a statistically significant increase in auto loan originations, consistent with equity extraction easing borrowing constraints in the auto loan market. This channel, though, accounts for only a tiny share of overall car purchases.     

Does Corporate Transparency Contribute to Efficient Resource Allocation?

This paper examines whether a country's corporate transparency environment, which includes the quality of accounting information, contributes to efficient resource allocation. Based on a cross-country study of 37 manufacturing industries in 37 countries, we provide three pieces of related evidence. First, we find the contemporaneous correlations in industry growth rates across country pairs are higher when there is a greater level of corporate transparency in the country pairs, after controlling for country-level economic and financial development. Second, we find the influence of transparency on these correlations is stronger when country pairs are at similar levels of economic development (GDP). Finally, when we control for the level of transparency explained by a country's institutions in place, we find that residual transparency (unexplained by country-level factors) is associated with industry-specific growth rates. Taken together, the results are consistent with corporate transparency facilitating the allocation of resources across industry sectors.     

A Theory of Noise Trading in Securities Markets

In a recent article, Black 1 introduces a type of trading that he terms noise trading. He asserts that noise trading, which he defines as trading on noise as if it were information, must be a significant factor in securities markets. However, he does not provide an explanation of why any investors would rationally want to engage in noise trading. The goal of this paper is to provide such an explanation for one type of investor, managers of investment funds. As shown here, the incentive for a manager to engage in noise trading arises because of the positive signal that the level of the manager's trading provides about his or her ability to collect private information concerning current and potential investments. If the manager's compensation is directly related to investors' perceptions of his or her ability, the manager will then trade more frequently than is justified on the basis of his or her private information. In addition to providing this explanation for noise trading, the results of this analysis may also be useful for further empirical exploration of the relation between investment fund portfolio turnover and subsequent performance.     

Bunching, Time Constraints, and Workfare

This paper explores the use of workfare as part of the optimal tax mix. When agents have preferences that are quasilinear in leisure, unproductive workfare is optimal only if an optimal nonlinear tax scheme in the absence of workfare would feature distortions at the bottom of the wage distribution. These distortions can arise from two sources: binding constraints on the maximum available time, and bunching. An example is presented to illustrate the computation of an optimal schedule with work requirements.     

International Mergers and Acquisitions Laws,the Market for Corporate Control,and Accounting Conservatism

Exploiting the staggered enactment of country‐level mergers and acquisitions (M&A) law as an exogenous increase in corporate takeover threat, this paper examines how a disciplinary market for corporate control affects accounting conservatism. Following M&A law adoption, we find increased accounting conservatism, with more pronounced effects in countries with weak shareholder protection and in those experiencing larger growth in takeover activity. Further analysis reveals that elevated takeover threats increase conservatism through changes in capital structure and investment decisions as well as improvements in board monitoring. Our findings highlight the importance of the market for corporate control in shaping financial‐reporting outcome.     

An Information‐Based Theory of Time‐Varying Liquidity

We propose an information‐based theory to explain time variation in liquidity and link it to a variety of patterns in asset markets. In “normal times,” the market is fully liquid and gains from trade are realized immediately. However, the equilibrium also involves periods during which liquidity “dries up,” which leads to endogenous liquidation costs. Traders correctly anticipate such costs, which reduces their willingness to pay. This foresight leads to a novel feedback effect between prices and market liquidity, which are jointly determined in equilibrium. The model also predicts that contagious sell‐offs can occur after sufficiently bad news.     

Securitization,Ratings, and Credit Supply

We develop a framework to explore the effect of credit ratings on loan origination. We show that ratings endogenously shift the economy from a signaling equilibrium, in which banks inefficiently retain loans to signal quality, toward an originate-to-distribute equilibrium with zero retention and inefficiently low lending standards. Ratings increase overall efficiency, provided that the reduction in costly retention more than compensates for the origination of some negative net present value loans. We study how banks' ability to screen loans affects these predictions and use the model to analyze commonly proposed policies such as mandatory “skin in the game.”