Profutures. The birth of the strategic prospective and futures studies international network for applied methodology

On 30 September and 1 October 1993, the European Commission's Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (PROMPT) organized a meeting, in collaboration with LIPS-CNAM (the Laboratory for Investigation in Prospective and Strategy of the Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers in Paris), on the theme: ‘Methods and tools in strategic prospective: retrospective and perspectives’. The main outcome of this meeting, which brought together 23 international experts from the strategic prospective-futures studies field at the Ispra campus of the EC's joint Research Centre, was the creation of a new network, devoted to applied methodology, to be known as Profutures.     

Perspectives for long-term energy policy

After a review of the basic questions facing energy-policy makers and the inability of such techniques as cost-benefit analysis and demand forecasting to provide long-term answers, the authors focus on the supply approach. They argue that energy resources can, for practical purposes, be regarded as infinite and that the focus of attention should be the speed at which energy supplies can be brought on stream using various technology options and assuming an ideal world. A possible model, employing energy analysis, is described and its utility in providing benchmarks for long-term policy making is strongly commended.     

Trade union recruitment strategies: facing the 1990s

Despite a high level of initiatives few unions have developed systematic recruitment strategies, in particular when measured against three key criteria-the employment of a ‘dedicated’ national official; a specific budget; and a comprehensive monitoring system. This reflects an organisational ‘culture’ restricting recruitment potential.     

Ringing the changes? Union recognition and organisation in call centres in the UK finance sector

The massive rise in UK call centre employment in recent years has been closely related to developments in the finance sector. This paper analyses these developments in order to contextualise the organisational experiences of unions in the sector. Recruitment activity in both hostile and compliant employer environments, and findings from the first national survey of call centre employees’ attitudes towards trade unionism, are discussed, and the prospects for union recruitment and organisation are assessed.     

CHINA'S EQUILIBRIUM REAL EXCHANGE RATE: A COUNTERFACTUAL ANALYSIS

Abstract.  China's 'equilibrium' real effective exchange rate is explored using an adaptation of the Devarajan-Lewis-Robinson three-good general equilibrium model under a variety of assumptions about the balance of trade. The absence of secondary indices of import and export prices necessitates their construction from trade data. Some undervaluation is suggested in the lead-up to and during the financial crisis, due in part to an extraordinary accumulation of foreign reserves following exchange rate integration in 1994. If, instead, China had run a more typical trade balance prior to the crisis its real effective exchange rate would have been higher by about a tenth.