Long range dependence in an emerging stock market’s sectors: volatility modelling and VaR forecasting

This study evaluates the sector risk of the Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE), a recently upgraded emerging stock market, using value-at-risk models for the 7 January 2007–18 October 2015 period. After providing evidence for true long memory in volatility using the log-likelihood profile test of Qu and splitting the sample and dth differentiation tests of Shimotsu, we compare the FIGARCH, HYGARCH and FIAPARCH models under normal, Student-t and skewed-t innovation distributions based on in and out-of-sample VaR forecasts. The empirical results show that the skewed Student-t FIGARCH model generates the most accurate prediction of one-day-VaR forecasts. The policy implications for portfolio managers are also discussed.     

Are Investors Concerned with Stock Market Upgrades? Evidence from Multivariate Framework Analysis

This study aims to examine the return and volatility responses to the announcement of stock market upgrades. It measures the direct effects of the recent Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) upgrade of the Qatar, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi stock exchanges from frontier to emerging markets by applying a nontraditional dummy variable event study using multivariate BEKK and DCC GARCH models. The results show clear evidence that contradicts the free information hypothesis and supports the price pressure hypothesis. Initially, the MSCI upgrade led to positive feedback from active investors due to the belief that this announcement will attract foreign institutional investors who play a vital role in improving the market’s performance.     

Currency substitution and transactions costs

This paper examines currency substitution in Canadian money demand vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar. A variant of the model developed by Bordo and Choudhri (1982) is estimated to test for the presence and extent of this substitution. The modified model is enhanced by the introduction of foreign exchange transactions costs. The resulting increased explanatory power indicates that previous tests which have omitted such costs understate the extent of currency substitution.     

A Socio-technical Approach for Group Decision Support in Public Strategic Planning: The Pernambuco PPA Case

This article describes a socio-technical approach to public strategic planning. A multi-methodological framework with decision support systems (DSS) of problem structuring, multi-criteria decision analysis and strategic thinking was used in a decision conferencing process to support the key-players of the Pernambuco State Department of Social Development and Human Rights, in Brazil, to elaborate its 2008–2011 Multi-Annual Plan (PPA). This interactive process took place in June 2007, with thirty technical and political actors meeting in 5 consecutive days to discuss what should be the fundamental objectives/development axes of the PPA and to generate, assess and classify intervention programmes to achieve the objectives. Structuring objectives and programmes started by a group causal mapping session supported by the Decision Explorer DSS. Then, a multi-criteria group value model, created on-the-spot by means of the M-MACBETH DSS, helped the politicians in evaluating the overall benefit of each programme. The doability of the programmes was also appraised with MACBETH and, finally, the programmes were classified into four benefit versus doability categories defined in a $2\times 2$ strategic graph: “pearls” (programmes with high benefit value and easy to implement), “oysters” (high benefit but difficult to implement), “bread and butter” (easy to implement but of low added value) and “white elephants” (low benefit and difficult to implement). The group agreed that at least all pearls and oysters should be selected. The programmes were prioritised based on their value-for-effort and the robustness of the selection was analysed with the PROBE DSS a posteriori.     

Currency Substitution: A Multicurrency Study for Canada

In this paper we examine currency substitution in Canadian money demand ls-a-vis the currencies of seven industrialized countries. A multicurrency variant of the money demand function is estimated to test for the presence and extent of this substitution. The results (except for the British pound) conform to expectations and show complementarity between currencies. It is also found that the degree of currency substitution under flexible rates exceeds that under fixed rates. We also question the validity of the tests for the presence of currency substitution which do not distinguish between exchange rate regimes. [430]