EU Enlargement and Trade Integration: Lessons from a Gravity Model

The authors estimate gravity models using a large panel of bilateral trade flows across 61 countries between 1980 and 2003, which are applied as a benchmark for the integration of Central and South Eastern European countries with the euro area. They show that a careful examination of the fixed effects of the model is crucial for the proper interpretation of the results. The results suggest that trade integration between most new EU member states and the euro area is already relatively advanced, while the remaining Central and Eastern European countries have significant scope to strengthen trade links with the euro area.     

Eastern European Public Opinion on Economic Issues:

Abstract Survey data on Eastern Europe is investigated with respect to two major questions: How do people view the creation of a market economy and how do they assess the speed of economic transformation and privatization. These questions are analyzed by looking at the development over 1990 to 1992 and by performing regressions with a number of demographic variables as regressors. Some findings are that the opposition to the creation of a market economy is increasing over time, that in Hungary and Poland people are quite satisfied with the speed of transformation as compared to Czechs and Slovaks, that the Polish are divided over the speed of privatization, and that the relationship between the speed of transformation and privatization is not considered to be very tight by the respondents.     

Contest Theory and Sport

Contrary to most sports fans economists tend to view tournamentsnot only as a mechanism to identify the most able and most talentedathlete(s) but also as an instrument to increase the athletes'effort levels by designing an adequate compensation system thattakes into account the specificities of the contest under consideration.The paper proceeds in two different steps: First, it reviewsthe available evidence on sports contests and identifies somepuzzles that have not yet been resolved in the literature (theempirical separation of selection and incentive effects andthe impact of incentive pay in team settings). Second, it addressesthese puzzles and offers some new evidence supporting the basicassumptions offered by economic theory.     

Wage and Mobility Effects of Trade and Migration on the Austrian Labour Market

This study analyses the effect of trade and migration on wages and labour marketmobility. We estimate wage growth equations and a multinomial logit mobilityequation on an individual data set ranging from 1991 to 1994. We find substantialdifferences in the reactions of white and blue-collar workers wages and mobilityto trade and migration. In Austria exports have a positive and imports a negativeimpact on wage growth only for blue-collar workers. Migrants also reduce onlyblue-collar workers wage growth. Our results indicate that higher imports and aninflow of migrants reduce sectoral mobility of all types workers. The risk of beingout of work by contrast is increased by migration and imports only for blue-collarworkers, but reduced by exports for all types of workers. In general our results suggestenlargement of the EU would have only small effects on the Austrian labour market.     

Estimating exchange rate dynamics with diffusion processes: an application to Greek EMU data

Recently various exchange rate models capturing the dynamics during the transition from an exchange rate arrangement of floating rates into a currency union have been derived. Technically, these stochastic equilibrium models are diffusion processes which have to be estimated by discretely sampled observations. Using daily exchange rate data prior to the Greek EMU-entrance on 1 January 2001, we develop a rigorous estimation procedure. Our estimates point to an increasing interventionist economic policy in the run-up to the Greek EMU entrance. A comparison of this econometric indication with policy information provided (ex-post) by the Bank of Greece (BoG) in its Annual Report 2000 reveals that the BoG indeed pursued such an active policy stance (so-called institutional frontloading strategies).      

Zur Nachhaltigkeit der Generationenverträge: Eine Diagnose der Kranken- und Pflegeversicherung

Employing the generational accounting approach, this paper analyses the stance of fiscal policy in Germany. We find that fiscal policy is presently not sustainable, which is mainly due to pay-as-you-go financed social insurance systems. In order to illustrate the relative impact, we isolate the Public Health Insurance and the Public Long Term Care Insurance. Our findings suggest that without radical reforms the implicit debt burden for future generations might reach a magnitude of more than two times the annual GDP and contribution rates to both schemes will explode during the next three decades.     

Do German Welfare‐to‐Work Programmes Reduce Welfare Dependency and Increase Employment?

Abstract. During the last decade, many Western economies reformed their welfare systems with the aim of activating welfare recipients by increasing welfare‐to‐work programmes (WTWP) and job‐search enforcement. We evaluate the short‐term effects of three important German WTWP implemented after a major reform in January 2005 (‘Hartz IV’), namely short training, further training with a planned duration of up to three months and public workfare programmes (‘One‐Euro‐Jobs’). Our analysis is based on a combination of a large‐scale survey and administrative data that is rich with respect to individual, household, agency level and regional information. We use this richness of the data to base the econometric evaluation on a selection‐on‐observables approach. We find that short‐term training programmes, on average, increase their participants' employment perspectives. There is also considerable effect heterogeneity across different subgroups of participants that could be exploited to improve the allocation of welfare recipients to the specific programmes and thus increase overall programme effectiveness.     

The Economic Value of Water Quality

Stated preference values for water quality ratings based on the US Environmental Protection Agency National Water Quality Inventory ratings provide an operational basis for benefit assessment. Iterative choice survey results for a very large, nationally representative, Web-based panel imply an average valuation of $32 for each percent increase in lakes and rivers in the region for which water quality is rated “Good.” Valuations are skewed, with the mean value more than double the median. Sources of heterogeneity in benefit values include differences in responses to average water quality information and the base level of water quality. Conjoint estimates are somewhat lower than the iterative choice values. The annual economic value of the decline in inland US water quality from 1994 to 2000 is over $20 billion.      

Rising wage inequality,the decline of collective bargaining,and the gender wage gap

This paper investigates the increase in wage inequality, the decline in collective bargaining, and the evolution of the gender wage gap in West Germany between 2001 and 2006. Based on detailed linked employer–employee data, we show that wage inequality is rising strongly — driven not only by real wage increases at the top of the wage distribution, but also by real wage losses below the median. Coverage by collective wage bargaining plummets by 16.5 (19.1) percentage points for male (female) employees. Despite these changes, the gender wage gap remains almost constant, with some small gains for women at the bottom and at the top of the wage distribution. A sequential decomposition analysis using quantile regression shows that all workplace related effects (firm effects and bargaining effects) and coefficients for personal characteristics contribute strongly to the rise in wage inequality. Among these, the firm coefficients effect dominates, which is almost exclusively driven by wage differences within and between different industries. Labor demand or firm wage policy related effects contribute to an increase in the gender wage gap. Personal characteristics tend to reduce wage inequality for both males and females, as well as the gender wage gap.