From goulash communism to goulash populism: the unwanted legacy of Hungarian reform socialism

The systemic change of 1989/1990 is usually identified as the critical juncture in the modern economic history of post-communist economies. While the change itself was indeed a remarkable moment in time, a branching point from which a multitude of new paths originated in most of the countries in Central and Eastern Europe, this was only partially true in the case of Hungary. If a critical juncture is sought for Hungary, it is more likely to be 1968, the year the New Economic Mechanism was launched. By applying the conceptual framework of historical institutionalism, the article argues that what made Hungary unique during the communist era and what rendered its position as a (one-time) frontrunner proved to be a serious constraint after the systemic change. The legacy of a pre-born welfare state, the constant need for compensating potential losers of any economic reform, along with short-sighted decision-making, have together generated specific path dependencies in the Hungarian trajectory of economic development.     

Fiscal stimulus and its effects in the European Union

In the wake of the financial and economic crisis Keynesian macroeconomic management has once again come into the spotlight. The following article takes a critical look at the practice of expansionary fiscal policy in the EU’s old member states between 1980 and 2005 in order to answer the question whether fiscal stimulus can be a successful response to the current crisis in both the short and the long run.     

What went wrong with the Hungarian consumption function? An econometric investigation of the time series aggregate consumption function for Hungary for 1960–1989

The paper focuses on the time series aggregate consumption function for the Hungarian economy. The empirical econometric analysis presented produces several new results. First, it shows that the income and consumption variables used in this type of model by previous studies are I(2) variables. Consequently, error correction models formulated in terms of their first differences are mis-specified. Second, it provides a strong empirical evidence supporting the view that consumption (and thus saving) was (real) interest rate elastic during the period under investigation, having impact both on the long run and on the short relationships between income and consumption. Third, it provides empirical evidence on choosing the proper income variable in the consumption function. The model selection results clearly supports the model with unadjusted total real money income variable. Fourth, it shows that for the period 1960–1986 a correctly specified and stable error correction model can be established. Finally, the analysis shows that when used for the period beyond 1986, this model suffers from a structural break.     

Strong random correlations in networks of heterogeneous agents

Correlations and other collective phenomena are considered in a schematic model of pairwise interacting, competing and collaborating agents facing a binary choice and situated at the nodes of the complete graph and a 2-dimensional regular lattice, respectively. The agents may be subjected to an idiosyncratic or common external influence and also some random noise. The system’s stochastic dynamics is studied by numerical simulations. It displays the characteristics of punctuated, multiple equilibria, sensitivity to small details, and path dependence. The dynamics is so slow that one can meaningfully speak of quasi-equilibrium states. Performing measurements of correlations between the agents choices we find that they are random both as to their sign and absolute value, but their distribution is very broad when the interaction dominates both the noise and the external field. This means that random but strong correlations appear with large probability. In the two dimensional model this also implies that the correlations on average fall off with distance very slowly: the system is essentially non-local, small changes at one end may have a strong impact at the other. The strong, random correlations tend to organize a large fraction of the agents into strongly correlated clusters that act together. If we think of this model as a metaphor of social or economic agents or bank networks, the systemic risk implications of this tendency are clear: any impact on even a single strongly correlated agent will not be confined to a small set but will spread, in an unforeseeable manner, to the whole system via the strong random correlations.     

Changing knowledge in the early economic thought of Michael Polanyi

How did Polanyi, a middleman between Keynes and Hayek, see economics education as a way to save the challenged liberal economic system of the 1930s? The first part of the article explores how experts and non-experts were engaged in making and disseminating economic knowledge, what role perception had in these engagements, and how such practices contributed to a kind of mental division of labor in the early economic thought of Michael Polanyi. The second part reconstructs Polanyi’s endeavors to show how the visual presentation of social matters could foster these engagement practices and the construction of economic knowledge. The third part points out that top-down and bottom-up approaches were both present in Polanyi’s economic thought and explains why the latter is evolutionary in a sense that it is based on changing knowledge in cognitive, behavioral, social and technical domains. The fourth part discusses how public understanding of economic ideas connected interactional expertise and boundary work in Polanyi’s account, and how he was engaged in developing both as part of his social agenda. The article concludes by showing how Polanyi positioned his growth theory and social agenda to save liberal economic thought and our civilization.     

Residents’ attitudes to tourists visiting their mosques: a case study from Istanbul,Turkey

Resident perception of tourism impacts has been one of the most studied areas of tourism. However, there is an extremely limited literature on resident perceptions of religious tourism development, especially in non-Western countries. This study investigated the attitudes of local residents toward tourists visiting four important mosques in Istanbul, Turkey and their perception of religious tourism development. All residents surveyed were practicing Muslims who prayed in a mosque at least once a year. We found that, in general, local residents are supportive of tourists visiting their mosque, but the level of support may differ based on the demographic and cultural background of the residents as well as on the number of tourists visiting the mosque.     

Increased fire hazard of N-heterocyclic compounds substituted by S-containing group

Release of CS₂ and/or H₂S caused by friction is demonstrated on two N-heterocyclic compounds carrying S-atom containing substituents. Because of the generation of electrostatic charge and creeping discharge, simultaneously brought about by friction, ignition and possible explosion of the released gaseous products of decomposition could occur. The tested compounds proved not to be sensitive to impact. Nonetheless, fire and explosion hazard of dusts must not be judged by their sensitivity to impact only. It is necessary to test their sensitivity to friction as well.     

Joint Bayesian Analysis of Parameters and States in Nonlinear non‐Gaussian State Space Models

We propose a new methodology for designing flexible proposal densities for the joint posterior density of parameters and states in a nonlinear, non‐Gaussian state space model. We show that a highly efficient Bayesian procedure emerges when these proposal densities are used in an independent Metropolis–Hastings algorithm or in importance sampling. Our method provides a computationally more efficient alternative to several recently proposed algorithms. We present extensive simulation evidence for stochastic intensity and stochastic volatility models based on Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes. For our empirical study, we analyse the performance of our methods for corporate default panel data and stock index returns. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Vulnerable older consumers: New persuasion knowledge achievement measure

This research describes a new persuasion knowledge measure for older consumers which can be applied for both diagnostic and preventive purposes. Persuasion knowledge refers to information, attitudes, beliefs and schemas guiding our behaviour in situations where persuasion is involved. Many older consumers belong to a specific, vulnerable group, who often fail to maintain their interest in persuasive situations, so the proposed measure could serve a better understanding of their behaviour. First, a new, situation‐based achievement measure, entitled ‘Persuasion Knowledge Achievement Measure’ (PKAM), was developed in university samples (N = 530) in several stages. Afterwards, the developed measure was adapted to older individuals, resulting in the Persuasion Knowledge Achievement Measure for Older People (PKAM‐OP). Following a pilot study with personally‐assisted data collection (N = 50), the examinees were reached through an elderly care network in a two‐stage procedure (N = 183, N = 116). The psychometric analyses of the data show a high level of reliability and validity for both tests. The results of the main research studies indicate that there are two subscales of the measure: ‘Agreeableness’ and ‘Persuasion Knowledge’. Based on the empirical data, the subscales provide reliable measures of features which guide behaviour in persuasive situations. In sum, PKAM‐OP can fulfil theoretical and practical needs in research and prevention interventions focusing on older consumers.     

Public debt and economic growth: what do neoclassical growth models teach us?

This paper aims to quantify the crowding-out effect of public debt and the related loss in long-run output in neoclassical growth models. To accomplish this task, we incorporate the government sector into the Ramsey–Cass–Koopmans (RCK) model, the Blanchard model and the Solow model, which differ only in their assumptions concerning the consumption behaviour of households. We also introduce a general framework that is capable of gauging the burden of public debt in a neoclassical world in the case of any type of consumption behaviour. Our results are threefold. First, contrary to the RCK model, public debt reduces long-run output in the Blanchard model and the Solow model, although to a different extent: the crowding-out effect is marginal in the former, whereas it can be very large in the latter. Second, the burden of public debt is country-specific depending crucially on the saving rate and the population growth rate. Finally, in developed countries the upper limit of the output loss related to public debt is moderate at best even if distortionary taxes are taken into account.