Understanding financial crisis through accounting models

This paper presents evidence that accounting (or flow-of-funds) macroeconomic models helped anticipate the credit crisis and economic recession. Equilibrium models ubiquitous in mainstream policy and research did not. This study traces the intellectual pedigrees of the accounting approach as an alternative to neo-classical economics, and the post-war rise and decline of flow-of-funds models in policy use. It includes contemporary case studies of both types of models, and considers why the accounting approach has remained outside mainstream economics. It provides constructive recommendations on revising methods of financial stability assessment and advocates an ‘accounting of economics’.     

THIS IS NOT A CREDIT CRISIS – IT IS A DEBT CRISIS

Using an analogy with ancient Babylonia as its leading theme, this viewpoint argues that the credit crisis is the symptom of an underlying problem. Fuelled by government policies, unprecedented debt levels were run up in industrialised countries over the last quarter century. Present policies of financial sector bailouts are not only an unwise use of taxpayers' money; they maintain economic structures opposed to what classical liberals such as J. S. Mill envisaged as a free-market economy.     

Livelihoods and farm efficiency in rural Georgia

This study contributes to the literature on the role of livelihood strategies in rural growth and poverty reduction. It distinguishes between livelihood diversity strategies that contribute to sustainable growth in household incomes, and those that mainly have a ‘coping’ function. It suggests that typically, the contribution of livelihood diversity to growing household income is through relaxing dependence on credit for access to capital. In this scenario, livelihood diversity would lead to higher technical efficiency in agriculture via investment and thereby to higher household incomes. Survey data from Georgia are introduced and used to test these hypotheses using a Bayesian stochastic frontier approach. The findings are relevant to defining more clearly the scope and aims of policies to stimulate the rural non-farm economy in developing and transition countries.     

Rural livelihoods in Armenia

This article explores the structure of the rural economy in Armenia from a farm household perspective. Ownership of capital and access to activities are examined on the basis of data from a recent large‐scale survey of farm households in Armenia. Different measures for the outcome of livelihood strategies in terms of well‐being are observed. Income‐poor households are found to be less well endowed especially with financial and social capital. They derive smaller income shares from economic activities and more from dissaving and social payments. The findings are relevant to policies aimed at alleviating rural poverty.     

The role of credit in the Great Moderation: A multivariate GARCH approach

During the Great Moderation, financial innovation in the US increased the size and scope of credit flows supporting the growth of wealth. We hypothesize that spending out of wealth came to finance a wider range of GDP components such that it smoothed GDP. Both these trends combined would be consistent with a decrease in the volatility of output. We suggest testable implications in terms of both growth of credit and output and volatility of growth. In a multivariate GARCH framework, we test this view for home mortgages and residential investment. We observe unidirectional causality in variance from total output, residential investment and non-residential output to mortgage lending before, but not during the Great Moderation. These findings are consistent with a role for credit dynamics in explaining the Great Moderation.     

Post-socialist financial fragility: the case of Albania

The 1997 collapse of the Albanian economy caused by the collapseof economy-wide Ponzi schemes contrasts sharply to its successstatus as a post-Socialist transition country in the years 1992-1996.In this paper, an attempt is made to explain this 'AlbanianParadox'. The specific Albanian conditions for the growth ofPonzi schemes are identified. Theoretically, the Albanian Paradoxcan be interpreted as one version of the 'Financial InstabilityHypothesis' suggested by Minsky. Investigation of the underlyingfactors that render financial markets fragile suggest that theAlbanian case is extreme but not unique in the region. It isemphasised that sustainable growth is predicted on the qualityof government, on proper financial-sector regulation, on actualmicroeconomic restructuring and on the development of marketinstitutions through which adequate market information is disseminated.     

Schumpeter might be right again: the functional differentiation of credit

In contemporary research, it is common to measure growth-enhancing financial development by the volume of credit as a ratio of the gross domestic product (GDP), an application of Schumpeter’s theory of credit and development. Recently, researchers have been surprised to find a negative relation between this measure and economic growth. This paper has three aims. First, Schumpeter sharply distinguished between the volume of credit financing development and the (typically larger) volume of the ‘secondary wave’ of credit financing consumption, over-investment and speculation, which follows the ‘primary wave’ of credit financing innovations. Combined with circuit theory, this helps explain the growth and the effects of credit/GDP ratios in our time. Second, it is shown that an increase in the credit/GDP ratio is due to an increase in ‘secondary wave’ credit, not productive credit; and since credit is debt, growth in the credit/GDP ratio is negative, not positive for economic development. Third, five contemporary ways in which the use of credit for consumption, financial investment and speculation has been institutionalized are discussed. The message of this paper is that, as Schumpeter wrote, “distinction between debts according to purpose, however difficult to carry out, is always relevant to diagnosis and may be relevant to preventive policy”.     

Finance Is Not the Economy: Reviving the Conceptual Distinction

Conflation of real capital with finance capital is at the heart of current misunderstandings of economic crisis and recession. We ground this distinction in the classical analysis of rent and the difference between productive and unproductive credit. We then apply it to current conditions, in which household credit — especially mortgage credit — is the premier form of unproductive credit.

This is supported by an institutional analysis of postwar U.S. development and a review of quantitative empirical research across many countries. Finally, we discuss contemporary consequences of the financial sector’s malformation and overdevelopment.     

BIOSTATISTICS IN MEDICINE

This paper surveys the field of biostatistics in medicine as it has developed in the Netherlands. We look into the recent past and the present, and try to foresee future developments.