The discounting controversy of deferred income taxes

This article examines the controversy related to discounting deferred income taxes. A brief background is provided and then the controversy surrounding discounting is analyzed. It is concluded that discounting is too burdensome to consider implementing, and the FASB needs to look at the discounting issue more extensively.     

Entrepreneurial global franchise ventures: US and European franchisee failure strategic and empirical perspectives

Rapid United States and European franchise growth offers potential benefits for stakeholders and host counties, as well as the potential for failure. Franchisee failure research is a complex area confounded by varying failure definitions, approaches, an event-focus, and single-year data. This paper includes a strategic franchisee failure perspective that views franchisee failure as a multi-stage process rather than an event; new longitudinal data from the United States for over 780 franchise systems and 292,000 franchise units and United Kingdom franchisee failure data for over 700 franchise systems and 31,000 franchisee units; and estimates of current European business-format franchise market size, including selected Central and Eastern European countries. Understanding and mitigating franchisee failure provide potential lessons for franchisors and franchisees. Franchisee failure and the strategic implications for franchise entrepreneurial ventures is a significant research area that merits further study and analysis.     

A review of dental plans: PPOs and referral plans to dominate future

This important benefit has changed greatly in the last 20 years. Double-digit health care cost increases in the late 1980s caused indemnity plans to evolve into network plans, such as dental HMOs and PPOs. PPOs and referral or access plans now seem to be the plans of choice.     

Mortality Change and Forecasting

Abstract

Prospects of longer life are viewed as a positive change for individuals and as a substantial social achievement but have led to concern over their implications for public spending on old-age support. This paper makes a critical assessment of knowledge about mortality change. It is oriented toward the problem of forecasting the course of mortality change and the potential of existing work to contribute to the development of useful forecasts in Canada, Mexico, and the U.S.

We first examine broad patterns in the historical decline in death rates in the three countries, the effect of these on trends in life expectancy, and the epidemiological transition. Next we review theories of the age pattern and evolution of mortality, including graduations, evolutionary theory, reliability models, dynamic models, and relational models.

The analysis and forecasting of mortality change have been shaped largely by some key historical lessons, which we summarize next. We emphasize issues that have been or are likely to be significant in mortality analysis, especially the questions of the age pattern and time trend in mortality at old ages; we distinguish patterns and facts that are established from those that remain uncertain. Next, we consider mortality differentials in characteristics such as sex, marital status, education, and socioeconomic variables; we summarize their key features and also point to the substantial gaps in our understanding of their determinants.

Finally, we review methods of forecasting, including the scenario method used by the U.S. Social Security Administration and the time series method of Lee and Carter. We set out some important recommendations for forecasters: forecasting assumptions should be made more formal and explicit; there should be retrospective evaluations of forecast performance; and greater attention should be paid to the assessment and consequences of forecast uncertainty.     

Political instability, investment and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper explores the relationship between political instabilityand economic growth in Sub-Saharan African nations. A more comprehensivemeasure of political instability than has previously been developedis used in combination with a simultaneous equations model anddynamic panel estimation approach to produce several interestinginferences. First, the statistically significant inverse relationshipbetween political instability and economic growth identifiedby earlier studies is confirmed by the estimates presented here.Second, the estimated system of equations indicates that economicgrowth and political instability are jointly endogenous. Third,in addition to the direct impact that political instabilityhas upon growth, estimates confirm the hypothesis that politicalinstability indirectly decreases economic growth by decreasinglong-run capital accumulation. Fourth, failure to account forthe dynamic nature of growth equations as well as the endogeneityof explanatory variables may produce biased effects of politicalinstability on growth. Fifth, the broad measure of politicalinstability we use in this study can better capture the effectsof political instability on economic growth than 'elite' instabilitythat has been used by earlier researchers. Finally, principalcomponents estimation is used to develop a measure of politicalinstability that can serve as an alternative to the arbitraryweighting scheme used in previous research.     

What's in a change in an industrial bond rating?

Bond quality rating changes (BQRC) for industrial bonds are analyzed using both univariate statistical methods and discriminant analysis to find significant variables and their relationship with the changes. The single most important explanatory variable is found to be the rate of return on assets (ROA), followed by the trend in the return on assets (ROATREND). The univariate analysis found six of the seven proposed explanatory variables significant beyond the 0.01 level. The two-group discriminant analysis model achieved a correct classification rate of over 77%. The paper shows how the results of the two-group discriminant analysis can be used for a three-way prediction (upgrade, downgrade, or no change of bond ratings). The results of this study show that models based on financial statement data can predict rating changes with good accuracy and therefore may be a useful tool for rating agencies, at least as an initial screening device.     

Urban land expansion in Indonesia 1992–2012: evidence from satellite‐detected luminosity

Land conversion to urban use typically accompanies economic development but raises concerns about food security. Debates of these issues often rely on incomplete and incompatible evidence. This study uses satellite‐detected luminosity, from 1992 to 2012, to examine the urban land expansion of 41 major urban areas in Indonesia. The trend annual expansion rate is 2.0 per cent, which is comparable to the rate for India and just one‐third of the rate for China, as estimated with the same data and methods. Prior to the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997/98, the rate of urban expansion was faster, and the income elasticity of urban expansion was much higher. About 85 per cent of the area of urban expansion had formerly been grassland, shrub or woodland, and just 7.0 per cent was former cropland so food security concerns about urban expansion may be overstated.