Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics: Application to Financial Markets

After the stock market crash of October 19, 1987, interest in nonlinear dynamics, especially deterministic chaotic dynamics, has increased in both the financial press and the academic literature. This has come about because the frequency of large moves in stock markets is greater than would be expected under a normal distribution. There are a number of possible explanations. A popular one is that the stock market is governed by chaotic dynamics. What exactly is chaos and how is it related to nonlinear dynamics? How does one detect chaos? Is there chaos in financial markets? Are there other explanations of the movements of financial prices other than chaos? The purpose of this paper is to explore these issues.     

Securities market response to pension fund termination*

Abstract. Capital market data are used to investigate the termination announcement effect of over- and underfunded corporate pension plans. Significant positive abnormal returns are initially observed for samples of both over- and underfunded plan terminations; however, after segmenting the samples on the basis of publicly available information regarding a firm's financial condition, significant returns are observed only for financially distressed subsamples. The evidence suggests that the property rights to pension fund assets and liabilities reside fully with the sponsoring firm, and that financially distressed firms may effect a wealth transfer to shareholders by fund termination. Résumé. Les auteurs utilisent les données relatives au marché financier pour analyser l'incidence des avis de discontinuation de régimes de retraite surcapitalisés et sous-capitalisés de sociétés. Des rendements positifs irréguliers importants sont d'abord observés pour des échantillons de cas de discontinuation de régimes surcapitalisés ainsi que sous-capitalisés; toutefois, après une segmentation des échantillons à partir de l'information mise à la disposition du public concernant la situation financière de la société, des rendements importants sont observés seulement pour les sous-échantillons de sociétés en difficulté financière. Les résultats donnent à penser que les éléments d'actif et de passif de la caisse de retraite échoient entièrement à la société promotrice et que les sociétés en difficulté financière peuvent procéder à un transfert de richesses au profit des actionnaires par voie de discontinuation du régime.     

The Effect of Consumer Participation on Price Sensitivity

This study examined the noneconomic factors affecting consumers’ participation in purchase decisions, focusing in particular on the social aspect of the buyer‐seller interaction. In addition, we attempted to clarify the association between consumer participation and price sensitivity. Of the four social dimensions of consumer participation—preparation, relationship building, information exchange, and intervention—our results indicated that the first three dimensions are negatively associated with price sensitivity but the intervention dimension is not. Additionally, we also found that, given the same level of preparation, industries typically characterized by higher participation, such as hair salons, are associated with lower consumer price sensitivity as compared to those typically characterized by lower participation, such as fast food restaurants. Similarly, given the same level of relationship building, information exchange, and intervention, industries typically characterized by higher participation have lower consumer price sensitivity than those typically characterized by lower participation.     

AN INVENTORY MODEL FOR DETERIORATING ITEMS WITH STOCK-DEPENDENT DEMAND UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF INFLATION AND TIME-VALUE OF MONEY

In this paper, we incorporate the effects of inflation and time-value of money in inventory decision making when demand, at each time moment rather than being constant, is considered to be dependent upon current stock level. In addition, the shortages are neither completely backlogged nor completely lost assuming the backlogging rate to be linearly dependent on the amount of demand backlogged. We shall be concerned with finding the optimal number of replenishments and service rate to minimize the total relevant costs over a finite planning horizon. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the proposed models.     

THE DEMAND FOR CIGARETTES IN TAIWAN: DOMESTIC VERSUS IMPORTED CIGARETTES

This paper uses annual time series data from Taiwan to empirically estimate the demand for cigarettes, in consideration of the import liberation of foreign cigarettes and of antismoking campaigns. The results indicate that the price elasticities for domestic and imported cigarettes are -0.6 and-1.1, respectively. The cross-price elasticities are 0.08 for domestic and 2.78 for imported cigarettes. The spread of cigarette health information has had a significantly negative effect on cigarette consumption. In addition, this study offers mild support to the argument that opening the market to imported cigarettes has resulted in significant increases in overall cigarette consumption. (JEL D12, 118)     

DO ADULT CHILDREN MATTER?—THE EFFECTS OF NATIONAL HEALTH INSURANCE ON RETIREMENT BEHAVIOR: EVIDENCE FROM TAIWAN

This paper examines the effect of the 1995 implementation of National Health Insurance (NHI) on retirement behavior in Taiwan. The identification strategy is based on the fact that, in Taiwan, adult children offer significant insurance to elderly parents. The results suggest that NHI had significant effects on retirement among the elderly lacking an adequate traditional "safety net." NHI raised the conditional probability that a male, private sector worker over the age of 51 would retire by more than 60%. However, men with a stronger safety net in the form of adult sons were less responsive to NHI. ( JEL I18, J14, J26)     

Hedge Funds: Performance, Risk, and Capital Formation

We use a comprehensive data set of funds-of-funds to investigate performance, risk, and capital formation in the hedge fund industry from 1995 to 2004. While the average fund-of-funds delivers alpha only in the period between October 1998 and March 2000, a subset of funds-of-funds consistently delivers alpha. The alpha-producing funds are not as likely to liquidate as those that do not deliver alpha, and experience far greater and steadier capital inflows than their less fortunate counterparts. These capital inflows attenuate the ability of the alpha producers to continue to deliver alpha in the future.     

A New Approach to International Arbitrage Pricing

This paper uses a nonlinear arbitrage-pricing model, a conditional linear model, and an unconditional linear model to price international equities, bonds, and forward currency contracts. Unlike linear models, the nonlinear arbitrage-pricing model requires no restrictions on the payoff space, allowing it to price payoffs of options, forward contracts, and other derivative securities. Only the nonlinear arbitrage-pricing model does an adequate job of explaining the time series behavior of a cross section of international returns.     

Margin Regulation and Stock Market Volatility

Using daily and monthly stock returns we find no convincing evidence that Federal Reserve margin requirements have served to dampen stock market volatility. The contrary conclusion, expressed in recent papers by Hardouvelis (1988a , b ), is traced to flaws in his test design. We do detect the expected negative relation between margin requirements and the amount of margin credit outstanding. We also confirm the recent finding by Schwert (1988) that changes in margin requirements by the Fed have tended to follow rather than lead changes in market volatility.