Changing rewards in contests: Has the three-point rule brought more offense to soccer?

In the mid-nineties FIFA decided to increase from two to three the number of points assigned to the winning team of a soccer match played under traditional round-robin national leagues. Since a game of soccer can be regarded as a contest, FIFA's measure provides an interesting case-study for analysing how a change in the system of rewards (from a zero to a non-zero sum rule) may affect the contestants' equilibrium behaviour. In this paper we try to assess, both theoretically and empirically, whether FIFA's new point rule has changed soccer towards a more offensive game, in which teams adopt more risky strategies. In particular, we evaluate the “na?ve hypothesis” according to which the measure would induce every team to play always more offensively, and we explore the extent to which the change in teams' behaviour may be affected by quality differentials between teams. Our most important hypothesis is that when the asymmetry between opposing teams is large enough, an increase in the reward for victory induces the weaker team to play more defensively, rather than the opposite. By looking at a subset of matches held in the Portuguese first division league, which approximate the conditions of our model, we find support for this hypothesis. First version received: July 1999/Final version received: May 2001     

Assessing Systemic Importance With a Fuzzy Logic Inference System

Three metrics are designed to assess Colombian financial institutions' size, connectedness and non-substitutability as the main drivers of systemic importance: (i) centrality as net borrower in the money market network; (ii) centrality as payments originator in the large-value payment system network; and (iii) asset value of core financial services. An aggregated systemic importance index is calculated based on expert knowledge by using a fuzzy logic inference system. We use principal component analysis to calculate a benchmark index for comparison purposes. Overall similarities between both indexes put forward that expert knowledge aggregation is consistent with that based on a purely quantitative standard approach. Specific non-negligible differences concur with the nonlinear features of an approach whose intention is to replicate human reasoning. Both indexes are complementary and provide a comprehensive relative assessment of each financial institution's systemic importance in the Colombian case, in which the choice of metrics pursues the macroprudential perspective of financial stability. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

TESTING THE INDUCED INNOVATION HYPOTHESIS USING COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS

This paper deals with some of the problems involved in testing the hypothesis that factor price movements tend to influence the type of technological innovations which are developed and adopted, known as the Induced Innovation Hypothesis. Previous methods to perform this test are briefly reviewed and their limitations are discussed. A testing procedure which is based on the use of cointegration analysis is proposed and its advantages outlined. Finally, one application of the method is made, providing little support for the Induced Innovation Hypothesis in the case of US Agriculture (1948–83).     

The role of no-arbitrage on forecasting: Lessons from a parametric term structure model

Parametric term structure models have been successfully applied to numerous problems in fixed income markets, including pricing, hedging, managing risk, as well as to the study of monetary policy implications. In turn, dynamic term structure models, equipped with stronger economic structure, have been mainly adopted to price derivatives and explain empirical stylized facts. In this paper, we combine flavors of those two classes of models to test whether no-arbitrage affects forecasting. We construct cross-sectional (allowing arbitrages) and arbitrage-free versions of a parametric polynomial model to analyze how well they predict out-of-sample interest rates. Based on US Treasury yield data, we find that no-arbitrage restrictions significantly improve forecasts. Arbitrage-free versions achieve overall smaller biases and root mean square errors for most maturities and forecasting horizons. Furthermore, a decomposition of forecasts into forward-rates and holding return premia indicates that the superior performance of no-arbitrage versions is due to a better identification of bond risk premium.     

Limits to Arbitrage and Value Investing: Evidence From Brazil

ABSTRACT

In this article we show that the results obtained by accounting-based fundamental analysis strategies observed in the US market cannot be directly extended to emerging markets with less developed institutional environments and narrow equity markets as found in Latin America. We use Brazil as a special case and through standard tests show the apparent usefulness of financial statement analysis as an effective investment tool. We show that an investor could have changed his/her high book-to-market (HBM) portfolio one-year (two years) market-adjusted returns from 5.7% (42.4%) to 26.7% (120.2%) by selecting financially strong HBM firms listed on the São Paulo Stock Exchange. Our tests were performed using stock returns from 1995 to 2007 and financial and accounting data from 1994 to 2004. When one considers low book-to-market (LBM) firms, the results of the study indicate that an investor could change his/her mean (median) one-year market adjusted return from ?11.9% (?7.4%) to 8.1% (2.5%) by adopting the strategy proposed. However, additional investigation demonstrates that the returns generated by these strategies are significantly dependent on stock's liquidity, and when we consider only stocks where arbitrage is possible, the previous results do not hold. These findings contribute to the literature that tries to address the impact of limits to arbitrage on some well reported capital markets phenomena related to financial reporting.     

The Influence of Innovative Organizational Culture on Marketing Strategy Formulation and Results

ABSTRACT

This article's objective is to analyze the influence innovative organizational culture has on marketing strategy formulation and results, and how this relationship affects organizational performance. The theoretical basis lies in Menon et al.'s (1999 Menon , A. , Bharadwaj , S. G. , Adidam , P. T. , and Edison , S. W. ( 1999 ). Antecedents and consequences of marketing strategy making: A model and a test . Journal of Marketing , 63 , 18 – 40 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) model. The methodology included a survey with medium to large Brazilian companies in different sectors. The final sample consisted of 153 questionnaires that were valid for analysis. Techniques for statistical analysis including singular and multivariate methods were used, from which the relationships between constructs were established by structural equation modeling. Results show a positive relationship between innovative organizational culture, the marketing strategy process, and organizational performance. However, innovative culture does not have a direct influence on performance.     

BIBLIOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE QUANTITATIVE METHODS APPLIED TO THE MEASUREMENT OF INDUSTRIAL CLUSTERS

Literature on methods for analysing interindustry interdependence and geographical concentration of firms began to multiply since the 1990s. The aim of this paper was to systematize the literature on methods and measures applied to the analysis of industrial clusters, as well as to identify trends in this knowledge field. The method used was bibliometrics, which consisted of a frequency evaluation of the publications and the relationship network between them. It was verified an exponential increase in the number of papers that composed this area, based mainly on the theories of New Economic Geography. Recently, the literature has focused on the geographic location in relation to interindustry linkages, and the frontier of knowledge has shifted from traditional methods of regional science to areas such as spatial statistics, econophysics and artificial intelligence. There are still relevant questions being explored, as Modifiable Area Unit Problem (aggregation bias), nevertheless, spatial anisotropy (directional bias) is still neglected and indicates a new research path.     

Factors affecting success in the professional entry exam for accountants in Brazil

This paper explores factors that have affected the success of candidates in the professional entry exam conducted by Brazil’s Federal Council of Accounting. We analyse results of 18,948 candidates who sat for the exam in 2012, using a logistic regression model and the key indicators used by government to monitor the performance of higher education institutions (HEIs) and the characteristics of candidates. We find that success is related positively to the quality of the HEIs from which candidates graduated and to a measure of student ability that is used widely in Brazil. We find also that males perform better than females and that younger candidates perform better than older candidates. The geographical region of Brazil within which candidates completed the exam was also significant. The insights provided will help public policy-makers in Brazil, and the Brazilian accounting profession, to understand key factors associated with current low pass rates.