Inter-basin water transfers under uncertainty: Storage capacity and optimal guaranteed deliveries

This paper deals with water transfers between jurisdictions not claiming riparian rights to the same water source, and taking place through straightforward sales. Taking into account the uncertain nature of water surpluses, we investigate, within a partial equilibrium framework, the implications of a third party's provision of storing facilities upon the potential supplier's decision whether, and to what extent, it is worthwhile to guarantee a constant amount of water exports. The analysis suggests that there exists a minimum storage capacity below which the potential supplier will never find it profitable to divert a constant amount of water outside his boundaries; the greater the uncertainty about future surpluses and/or internal costs due to even occasional water shortages resulting from the water export commitment, the higher the required minimum storage capacity will be. Above this minimum, an increase in the capacity would be better for the surplus agent, but in a situation in which water surplus is expected to decrease over time, increases in storage capacity would make him willing to guarantee a smaller amount of water deliveries.This work has been carried out under the auspices of the European Science Foundation's research program Sharing fresh water resources in the Mediterranean region: An economic perspective. Previous versions have been presented at ESF workshops held at the Universities of Haifa, Padova and Crete. Financial support from MURST (funds 40% — 1992) is gratefully acknowledged. We wish to thank Nunzio Cappuccio, Haluk Akdogan, Karl Mäler, Mordechai Shechter, Naomi Zeitouni, and two anonimous referees for helpful comments. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Analyzing online reviews in hospitality: data-driven opportunities for predicting the sharing of negative emotional content

Hospitality is one of the sectors that are nowadays most heavily characterized by consumers’ tendency to share online reviews on dedicated digital platforms. While most past work has focused on understanding the effect of online reviews and ratings on consumers’ evaluation and purchase decisions, this research tackles the issue of what drives the sharing of certain types of online content. Specifically, we investigate the sharing of user-generated content characterized by negative emotional valence, and study the effect of two factors on the extent to which user-generated content contains negative emotions. One such factor is reviewer's expertise, while the other is hotel quality. Our analysis of 1200 TripAdvisor reviews on Italian hotels located in three major Italian cities confirm our hypothesis that expert reviewers might share reviews containing less intense negative emotional content compared to less expert reviewers especially when the hotel is of high quality. To support our hypothesis, we build on the research on psychological antecedents of word-of-mouth behaviour suggesting that expert consumers are particularly reluctant to share negative word-of-mouth to avoid projecting a negative image of themselves in social contexts, thus possibly damaging their reputation.     

On the robustness of the fat-tailed distribution of firm growth rates: a global sensitivity analysis

Firms grow and decline by relatively lumpy jumps which cannot be accounted by the cumulation of small, “atom-less”, independent shocks. Rather “big” episodes of expansion and contraction are relatively frequent. More technically, this is revealed by the fat-tailed distributions of growth rates. This applies across different levels of sectoral disaggregation, across countries, over different historical periods for which there are available data. What determines such property? In Dosi et al. (The footprint of evolutionary processes of learning and selection upon the statistical properties of industrial dynamics. Industrial and corporate change. Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2016) we implemented a simple multi-firm evolutionary simulation model, built upon the coupling of a replicator dynamic and an idiosyncratic learning process, which turns out to be able to robustly reproduce such a stylized fact. Here, we investigate, by means of a Kriging meta-model, how robust such “ubiquitousness” feature is with regard to a global exploration of the parameters space. The exercise confirms the high level of generality of the results in a statistically robust global sensitivity analysis framework.     

A baseline model of industry evolution

The paper analyses some general dynamic properties of industries characterized by heterogeneous firms and continuing stochastic entry.After a brief critical assessment of some significant drawbacks of recent contributions to modeling of stochastic industrial dynamics, we propose a novel analytical apparatus able to derive some generic properties of the underlying competition process combining persistent technological heterogeneity, differential growth of individual firms and turnover. The basic model, we suggest, is indeed applicable with proper modifications to a large class of evolutionary processes, well beyond industrial dynamics.JEL Classification: L11, O30, C60Support to this research by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria; the Fujitsu Research Institute for Advanced Information (FRI), Japan; the Italian National Research Council (CNR), the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research (MIUR, prot. 2002132413 003) and the Free University of Bozen Bolzano, Italy, is gratefully acknowledged. Comments by Andrea Bassanini, Francesca Chiaromonte, Steven Klepper, Uwe Cantner, Drew Fudenberg and the anonymous referees helped in shaping the paper to its present form. Mariele Berté provided the computer simulations of the model. The usual caveats apply.Correspondence to: G. Dosi     

Invariances and Diversities in the Patterns of Industrial Evolution: Some Evidence from Italian Manufacturing Industries

This work explores and compares some basic properties of corporate growth process at both aggregate manufacturing level and disaggregated sectoral levels. Using an extensive dataset on Italian manufacturing firms, we investigate which properties of firm growth dynamics are robust under disaggregation. We compare the results obtained with three different definitions of firm size, namely total sales, number of employees and value added. Our analysis suggests that while different sectors are characterized by significant differences in firm size distributions, in the degrees of concentration and in the autoregressive structure of the growth processes, there are also regularities which hold across all of them, such as the approximate unit root nature of the growth process and the power exponential shape of the growth rates density. Together, these “stylized facts” suggest challenging puzzles on the drivers of corporate growth and the resulting industrial structures.     

Society as a learning system: Discovery,invention, and innovation cycles revisited

The very simple heuristic suggestion that society as a whole and its numerous subsets operate like learning systems, basically governed by Volterra-Lotka equations, has been extremely valuable in organizing a most variegated collection of statistical sets of time series, ranging from the structure of energy markets to the efficiency of machinery and the expansion of empires. In this paper an attempt is made to treat invention and entrepreneurship, generally perceived as the most “free” of human activities but actually subject to iron rules. Invention and innovation during the last 250 years appear in precisely structured waves that lend themselves to robust prediction. The present wave will reach its maximum momentum around 1990. Furthermore, the introduction, maximum market penetrations, and prices of new primary energies show a very strong link to these innovation waves. This stresses once more that economic features may be the expression of deeper “physical” phenomena related to the basic working of society and thus become predictable up to a point through a very abstract and noneconomic analysis.This work has been done in the frame of IIASA's Energy Systems Program and can be considered as an outgrowth of and complement to the research on the evolution of energy systems described in IIASA Research Reports 79-12, 79-13, and 77-22. There it was found that a new primary energy coming into the market must be observed for 10 or 20 years if one is to extract the basic features necessary to predict its long-term market behavior. Specifically, it was concluded that the dates at which new primary energies come into play cannot be predicted. In this paper innovations are considered not one by one but as an abstract set, whose behavior is analyzed. In this frame possible birth dates for new energy sources can be identified, thus enhancing the quality of very long-term forecasting in the energy field. Also, prices appear predictable, at least in their gross features.     

Turbulence underneath the big calm? The micro-evidence behind Italian productivity dynamics

Italy ranked last in terms of manufacturing productivity growth according to OECD estimates over the last decade, with a flat, if not declining, trend. In this work we investigate the underlying firm-level dynamics of enterprises on the basis of a database developed by the Italian Statistical Office (ISTAT) covering the period 1989?C2004 and containing information on more than 100,000 firms. Over this period not only have the indicators of the central tendency of the distribution of labor productivity not significantly changed, but also the whole sectoral distributions have remained relatively stable over time, with their support at least not shrinking, or even possibly widening, over time. This is even more surprising if one takes into consideration the ??Euro?? shock that occurred during the period investigated. On the contrary, we observe that inter-decile differences in productivity have been increasing. Further, heterogeneous firms?? characteristics (i.e. export activity and innovation) seem to have contributed to boosting such intra-industry differences. Given such wide heterogeneities we resort to quantile regressions to identify the impact of a set of regressors at different levels of the conditional distribution of labor productivity. One phenomenon that we observe is what we call a tendency toward ??neo-dualism?? involving the co-existence of a small group of dynamic firms with a bigger ensemble of much less technologically progressive ones.     

Production Theory: Accounting for Firm Heterogeneity and Technical Change

The paper presents a new framework to assess firm level heterogeneity and to study the rate and direction of technical change. Building on the analysis of revealed short‐run production functions by Hildenbrand ( 1981 ), we propose the (normalized) volume of the zonotope composed by vectors‐firms as indicator of inter‐firm heterogeneity. Moreover, the angles that the zonotope's main diagonal form with the axes provide a measure of the rates and directions of productivity change. The proposed framework also accounts for n‐inputs and m‐outputs and, crucially, the measures of heterogeneity and technical change do not require many of the standard assumptions from production theory.