四大风险威胁2009年亚洲经济增长

[摩根士丹利11月6日]由于近几周金融市场形势恶化，2009年亚洲经济增长预期值的下调风险明显增大。而由于亚洲贸易与金融已实现高度一体化，一种负反馈循环已经在本地区迅速形成。目前，本地区经济增长面临着四种至关重要的风险：（1）外需冲击；（2）资本流入的急剧减速和资本成本的上升；（3）汇率冲击；（4）金融动荡的加剧。     

亚洲投资滑坡深度有限，但复苏前景暗淡

【摩根士丹利5月7日】危机前的资本支出增长极为强劲 近年来，日本之外亚洲（AXJ）地区的固定资本总投资（GFCF）出现了大幅增长，据我们估算，2001—2008年间，AXJ经济体的GFCF由9200亿美元（占GDP的28．5％）猛增至2．9万亿美元。本轮周期之中，GFCF从谷底到峰顶的升幅远超过上世纪90年代中期那轮周期的升幅。     

Recursive preferences,learning and large deviations

We estimate the relative contribution of recursive preferences versus adaptive learning in accounting for the tail thickness of price–dividends/rents ratios. We find that both of these sources of volatility account for volatility in liquid (stocks) but not illiquid (housing) assets.     

Using a mobile application to test the impact of giving feedback onteam-level conflict

The authors explored using a mobile application called DevelapMe for 278 business undergraduates in 54 teams to give real-time peer-based feedback during a 5-week group project. Two online surveys, Time 1 (T1) and Time 2 (T2), were administered. Results included finding three promising, new give-feedback scales: positive rating with comments, negative rating with comments, and negative/neutral rating without comments. Relationship conflict and task conflict were the outcomes. Relationship conflict significantly increased from T1 to T2. Only positive rating with comments had a significant relationship to T2 relational conflict and task conflict. Research exposing students to real-time feedback apps will prepare them for future work in teams.     

Temporary stabilization with capital controls

This paper studies both positive and normative aspects of quantity-based capital controls in a small open economy undergoing a temporary inflation stabilization plan. In the model, capital controls are implemented by choosing two policy variables: a ceiling on the private sector debt and a terminal date for removing controls; the date on which controls trigger and hence its duration are endogenously determined. Equilibrium dynamics are characterized for all feasible range of debt ceilings and durations. Temporary controls that end with the collapse of the stabilization plan are shown to mitigate consumption boom-bust cycles and dominate allocations under perfect capital mobility, thus providing a “second-best” rationale for employing them. For controls that are prolonged beyond the collapse of the stabilization plan, equilibria exist even when the debt ceiling is above the debt that accumulates under perfect capital mobility. Here, if the ceiling is sufficiently low, controls mitigate consumption cycles. Conversely, a sufficiently high ceiling amplifies consumption cycles. For prolonged controls, there is a critical value of debt ceiling below (above) which the welfare is higher (lower) relative to the perfect capital mobility case. Finally, for a given debt ceiling, prolonged controls rank lower in welfare than those that end with the stabilization plan. We would like to thank two anonymous referees and the editor whose suggestions have helped us improve the paper substantially. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments under velocity and fiscal shocks

This paper, in the spirit of Poole [Poole, William, 1970. The Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Macro Model. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 84, 192–216.], studies how differently monetary and fiscal shocks influence the appropriate choice of the monetary policy regime. Velocity shocks are introduced by embedding a stochastic cash-in-advance constraint within the New Keynesian framework. In addition to optimal policy under discretion, three classic rules, interest rate targeting, monetary targeting, and the Taylor rule are ranked under both fiscal and velocity shocks. The non-stationarity of prices under the Taylor rule makes it inferior to the other rules under which prices are stationary. Monetary targeting, by stabilizing aggregate demand under fiscal shocks, outperforms interest rate targeting, while the latter provides a better insulation against velocity shocks. Monetary targeting (under fiscal shocks) and interest rate targeting (under velocity shocks) even outperform the optimal policy under discretion for sufficiently high intertemporal elasticities of consumption substitution.     

Study of kite string injuries in Western India

A prospective analysis of 104 patients (outdoor and indoor) with manja (powdered glass coated kite string) injury from January 2011 to January 2015 was carried out at Civil Hospital Ahmedabad. All patients were analysed for mode and severity of injury, site of injury, associated injuries, activity being performed when injury occurred, the clinical diagnosis and treatment required. Analysis of collected data revealed that majority of the injuries occurred while driving or in pedestrians with the neck being the most commonly affected body part. Males were more commonly affected with most of the victims in the age group of 16–45 years. Injuries sustained while driving tended to be more severe. All injuries were recorded in the month of January. No deaths were reported, but potentially fatal injuries did occur. Most of the injuries were superficial and could be prevented or mitigated by either protective clothing or by use of protective devices on vehicles, which should be implemented to reduce the morbidity of such injuries in the future. There were no ethical issues or vested interests associated with the study.     

Temporary Stabilizations, Sudden Stops, and Asset Prices

The authors study a temporary exchange-rate based stabilization plan in which agents face a sudden stop of capital inflows. The model generates a rising path of real interest rates in advance of the exchange rate collapse. This generates a time-dependent non-monotonic path of required premium on domestic assets. The model-generated asset price dynamics closely mimic their empirical counterpart, as witnessed during recent collapses of exchange-rate based stabilization plans. The model also reproduces consumption and foreign reserve dynamics that closely mimic the data.     

亚洲面临核心通胀率上升的挑战

【摩根士丹利5月29日】近几个月，我们一直担心日本之外亚洲地区（AXJ）的核心通胀率出现周期性上升。现在看来，这种担忧正在成为现实。2008年4月，AXJ的总体通胀率达到7．5％，达到9年半以来的高点；扣除石油和食品价格的核心通胀率也达到了3．8％。另一方面，以GDP为权重，AXJ地区政策利率的加权平均值为6．75％，3月期国债收益率的加权平均值为4．95％。     

Valuing Assets Using Real Options: An Application to Deregulated Electricity Markets

This paper provides a detailed case of the application of real options valuation techniques to value a contract for the use of a power generation facility. The authors' aim is not primarily to offer a valuation "recipe" for a specific type of asset, but to show how the real options framework can be actually made to work in a variety of situations.
The case illustrates how minor adaptations that take into account the ways in which actual settings differ from the assumptions of standard formulas like Black-Scholes can be used to increase the precision and realism of results. By introducing relatively simple changes to a standard options valuation model, the authors obtain results that are reasonably close to those reported for actual transactions involving similar types of assets. Despite the industry-specific context of the analysis, the applicability of the techniques discussed in the paper should extend beyond the energy industry to other contexts characterized by similar types of uncertainty and production process, particularly those associated with minerals and other commodities.