四大风险威胁2009年亚洲经济增长

[摩根士丹利11月6日]由于近几周金融市场形势恶化，2009年亚洲经济增长预期值的下调风险明显增大。而由于亚洲贸易与金融已实现高度一体化，一种负反馈循环已经在本地区迅速形成。目前，本地区经济增长面临着四种至关重要的风险：（1）外需冲击；（2）资本流入的急剧减速和资本成本的上升；（3）汇率冲击；（4）金融动荡的加剧。     

亚洲投资滑坡深度有限，但复苏前景暗淡

【摩根士丹利5月7日】危机前的资本支出增长极为强劲 近年来，日本之外亚洲（AXJ）地区的固定资本总投资（GFCF）出现了大幅增长，据我们估算，2001—2008年间，AXJ经济体的GFCF由9200亿美元（占GDP的28．5％）猛增至2．9万亿美元。本轮周期之中，GFCF从谷底到峰顶的升幅远超过上世纪90年代中期那轮周期的升幅。     

Interlocked Village Markets and Trader Idiosyncrasy in Rural India

The role of traders and traditional exchange institutions has received little attention in empirical research on rural markets in developing countries. We use detailed data on transactions in a village commodity market in India and identify two observed anomalies: first, the repeal of the law of one price, and second, a trader‐idiosyncratic effect, namely that large volumes are sold to a trader who does not offer the best price. Econometric analysis demonstrates that trader idiosyncrasy can largely be explained by reciprocity motives in interlocked village markets. Reciprocity leads to market inefficiencies and can result in unexpected supply responses.     

Pricing Term Insurance in the Presence of a Family History of Breast or Ovarian Cancer

Abstract

We estimate the increased mortality and term life insurance costs for women who have a family history of breast or ovarian cancer. Using data from the medical literature on age-specific and family history-specific incidence rates, we develop double-decrement models to evaluate the actuarial impact of breast cancer and ovarian cancer in the family. We also calculate the increased mortality and term insurance costs for women who test positive for the BRCA1 or BRCA2 gene mutation. We find that the type of affected relative and her age at onset of the disease are key underwriting factors. We find substantial mortality increases (up to 100%) for women with two relatives with cancer and women with a first-degree relative who developed cancer at an early age. Mortality increases for women with the BRCA gene mutation reach 150%. While some females with a family history of cancer can be accepted at standard rates, others may need to be quoted substandard rates, depending on the underwriting policy of the company. Females with the gene mutation can possibly be accepted at a rate that incorporates a severe mortality surcharge.     

Recursive preferences,learning and large deviations

We estimate the relative contribution of recursive preferences versus adaptive learning in accounting for the tail thickness of price–dividends/rents ratios. We find that both of these sources of volatility account for volatility in liquid (stocks) but not illiquid (housing) assets.     

Do foreign companies earn more and distribute more than domestic companies in India？

There is a prevalent opinion in the corporate arena that the foreign companies are earning more but are less concerned with reinvesting their earnings in the foreign countries in which they operate and are more concerned in profit appropriations for quick repatriation of their investments by way of declaring high dividend payments. As compared to the foreign companies, domestic companies in India are relatively more concerned for reinvesting their profits and help to trigger the capital accumulation and industrial growth. This practice of comparatively paying higher dividend by foreign companies in India, if proved, supports the view that foreign companies are least concerned with the industrial growth of the country in which they operate. Hence the analyses of the dividend payments and the retained earnings of foreign and domestic firms assume economic importance. Considering the above hypothesis and the importance of the study, this paper made an attempt to empirically test the opinion and bring out any significant differences in the profitability and dividend payments between the two groups often pharmaceutical companies operating in India for the period of last 20 years.     

Aid, Dutch disease, and manufacturing growth

We examine the effects of aid on the growth of manufacturing, using a methodology that exploits the variation within countries and across manufacturing sectors, and corrects for possible reverse causality. We find that aid inflows have systematic adverse effects on a country's competitiveness, as reflected in the lower relative growth rate of exportable industries. We provide some evidence suggesting that the channel for these effects is the real exchange rate appreciation caused by aid inflows. We conjecture that this may explain, in part, why it is hard to find robust evidence that foreign aid helps countries grow.